The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
O'Driscoll: Oracle will lay off 20k to 30k employees over AI capex strain
“The only person that's even struggling slightly to cover their nut is Oracle, right? Because they had the weakest balance sheet and the least compelling use case, which is why at some point they're going to throw 20 or 30,000 people over the side to make the P…”
Rory O'Driscoll Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 23:30 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | The Data Center Arms Race | The Ultimate Stock Picks · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Oracle closed a $30 billion annual deal with OpenAI
“Oracle just closed a thirty billion dollar a year deal with open AI, right? An extra thirty billion.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 3, 2025 ▶ 58:55 Figma’s IPO: The Full Breakdown & Why Melio’s $2.5BN Acquisition is “Discouraging” · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Cahn: AI infrastructure build-out is mostly equity and cash funded
“I actually think that what's interesting about this AI build out is that for the most part, and let's put Oracle aside, which maybe has some debt, but for the most part, the AI build out today has been equity funded and cash funded.”
David Cahn Oct 27, 2025 ▶ 27:59 Sequoia Partner, David Cahn on Who Wins in AI, Defence & The New $0–$100M Playbook · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Oracle and OpenAI cancel flagship data center expansion
“Oracle and OpenAI end plans to expand flagship data center”
Harry Stebbings Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 0:13 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | The Data Center Arms Race | The Ultimate Stock Picks · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
O'Driscoll: OpenAI Will Buy Compute From Oracle If Cheaper Than Microsoft
“Do I think the Oracle will book a fair amount of cloud compute from OpenAI? Absolutely. Maybe not three hundred billion, but if he's willing to provide it at a lower price than Microsoft, my guess is those fine people at OpenAI will take it.”
Rory O’Driscoll Sep 18, 2025 ▶ 52:22 Opendoor CEO, Kaz Nejatian: OpenAI and Oracle, How Can Either Afford to Do This · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Bloom Energy Delivered 50+ Megawatts of Power to Oracle in 55 Days
“We signed a contract with them that 90 days from the day we signed the contract, we would do 50 plus megawatts, which is an unbelievable speed. We delivered that in 55 days instead of 90 days.”
K.R. Shridhar Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 47:00 Bloom Energy CEO: Why We Aren’t in an AI Capex Bubble | Energy Sovereignty & The Future of Power · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Halligan: Shopify is the only SaaS stock outperforming Oracle and SAP
“If you go from that date and you look at you look at Oracle and you look at SAP, they're both growing, like, 230%. The only SaaS company since August 22 It's growing faster. Shopify. They're growing 300%. So they're outpacing HubSpot, Salesforce, Adobe Box, At…”
Brian Halligan Aug 7, 2025 ▶ 1:00:57 Figma's 250% Pop - The Greatest IPO Mispricing Ever? Meta & Microsoft Blowout Quarters: Broken Down · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Larry Ellison expanded Oracle ownership to 41% via stock buybacks
“He now owns 41% of Oracle, right? What's he done? Every year he's run that business superbly. It's got 43% operating margins, and he's used that cash to buy back shares.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jun 26, 2025 ▶ 51:04 Navan Files to Go Public and Canva Pulls the Brakes: Why and What Happens? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Mobile enterprise will produce a Salesforce-scale breakout within 5 to 10 years
“Under hyped for us, I think is mobile enterprise. I think you're going to see a lot of amazing companies come out in, in grow in the next five, 10 years both for desk and non-desk workers. You know, I think there's going to be A Salesforce Oracle type company …”
Hadley Harris Feb 3, 2016 ▶ 22:23 20VC: The Evolution Of Mobile & The Importance Of Follow On Funding with Hadley Harris @ Eniac Ventures
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Oracle reported $300B+ in remaining performance obligations
“They announced a future RPO revenue performance obligation of north of three hundred billion dollars.”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 18, 2025 ▶ 25:35 Opendoor CEO, Kaz Nejatian: OpenAI and Oracle, How Can Either Afford to Do This · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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