The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 112 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
O'Driscoll: OpenAI misses next year's revenue target by 40% if growth matches Google
“If all OpenAI is, Is just as good as Google, then it's going to miss its number next year by about 40%.”
Mollick: OpenAI's $3B revenue run rate is largely an accident
“I mean, they're incidentally making three billion dollar run rate this year, I think by like just accident, but there isn't like a, there isn't really a product there right now.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI is lobbying in Washington for AI regulation alongside Anthropic
“They're signing this publicly while at the same time lobbying in Washington right alongside Anthropic for a regulatory process.”
Lemkin: OpenAI and Anthropic Lied About Books and YouTube Training Data
“Open AI, an anthropic, Kind of lied about the books, and they definitely lied about training on YouTube”
Lemkin: OpenAI and Anthropic yield 40-70% gross margins on enterprise inference
“They have an enterprise base, which is, it has, you know, between 40 and 70% in, you know, gross margin just on inference.”
Stebbings: Altman Offered $2M in OpenAI Tokens to Every YC Startup
“Sam Altman just offered two million dollars In open AI tokens to every YC startup in the current batch in exchange for equity.”
Lemkin: Anthropic revenue surged to 64% of OpenAI's in 14 months
“Anthropic said it's hundred K customers are up seven X in the last year. So there's not enough time to steal deals. Having said that, going from five percent of OpenAI's revenue to 64% in 14 months, that is stealing budget.”
Lemkin: Sam Altman receives zero equity in OpenAI's corporate restructuring
“They're a little interesting, but the craziest thing in this deal, because it's unprecedented, I think in our lifetimes is OpenAI said that Sam Altman will still have no shares in the combined entity.”
Taneja: Anthropic's enterprise business will be bigger than OpenAI's
“I think their enterprise business I'd argue will be bigger than OpenAI if it already isn't already not having spent that much.”
Lemkin: OpenAI Stole YouTube Videos to Train AI Models
“This isn't even stealing YouTube videos like OpenAI did.”
Lemkin: Oracle closed a $30 billion annual deal with OpenAI
“Oracle just closed a thirty billion dollar a year deal with open AI, right? An extra thirty billion.”
Lemkin: OpenAI has a 67% two-year employee retention rate
“67% retention rate employees after two years.”
Stebbings: OpenAI CFO told employees the company will IPO in 2027
“CFO Sarah Fryer told employees at OpenAI, we will be a public company in twenty-twenty-seven.”
Datadog's largest customer, OpenAI, slashed its $150 million software spend
“Datadog's story was just, everything's amazing, but our biggest customer, and everybody knows it's OpenAI and know what it says, right, is suddenly realized they maybe don't need to spend a hundred and fifty million dollars and they're spending less.”
O'Driscoll: Hugging Face defended against OpenAI probe using Chinese models
“The Chinese open source, open rate models were available, and I think they use Kimi or Kuan or one of the newest models to help them figure out what happened, right? So they were able to defend themselves using an open source model, and then they do this blog …”
O'Driscoll: Sandboxed OpenAI test model escaped to query Hugging Face
“OpenAI was training a next generation model and managing cyber and discovering and checking out cyber vulnerabilities. They had sandboxed it in such that the only access externally it has was to one website to just to get kind of Patch of information updates, …”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI reached $12B and Anthropic $4B in GAAP revenue
“The rate at which, you know, OpenAI and Tropic got to four and twelve billion, respectively, other way around, sorry, 12 and four billion, respectively, in GAAP revenue, never before seen, right?”
Perplexity differentiates by orchestrating across competing AI models
“And the way we differentiate ourselves at perplexity Is we don't just orchestrate across tools and files and connectors. We also orchestrate across models. That is the differentiation that Anthropic and OpenAI cannot claim”
Foody: Mercor did not lose OpenAI as a customer after hack
“False. Our relationship with OpenAI is stronger than ever.”
O'Driscoll: AI labs will throttle subscriptions and hike prices for compute
“You're going to see some compute rationally, people are going to start allocating tokens to the highest, effectively the highest bidder. You're going to see a lot of throttling, like, you're going to see these plans, like, that's why they shot Sora. You're goi…”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic reports gross AWS revenue; OpenAI reports net Microsoft revenue
“There was this kind of whole meme of OpenAI reports net on their partner revenue and Entropic reports gross. And what they're saying there is if OpenAI sells through Microsoft and Microsoft takes some money off the top, OpenAI only reports the net amount. If A…”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic reaches $19B ARR while OpenAI hits $25B ARR
“Well, to be fair about Entropic and OpenAI, they have a very clear and sensible way they define ARR. What they say is they take the last, the average of the last four weeks to smooth out times to 13, because there were 1304 week periods in a year, which is mor…”
O'Driscoll: Thrive Capital specifically declined Anthropic investment due to OpenAI stake
“They actually specifically, unlike some of the other funds that have invested in both, they've Specifically our fund that said, no, we backed open AI. We're not going to back on tropics.”
Acharya: OpenAI reached $20B top line by tripling capacity and matching demand
“Look, this is not my area of focus or expertise, but one, you look at OpenAI's recent investment announcement, sorry, which is that there are twenty billion of top line. And the way that they got there is they three X capacity and they three X top line. So eve…”
Lemkin: OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI will rush IPOs due to capital pressure
“What all three of those say to me is there's no matter, there's subtle pressure around access to capital. Like they've all got to have an IPO strategy sooner than they'd hoped because Data center, because XAI needs capital, because Anthropic is even worried ab…”
O'Driscoll: NVIDIA issued a document committing up to $100B to OpenAI
“There's a piece of paper. With the NVIDIA logo on it that said we'll do up to a hundred billion, and they put it out there, and now they're like, where's my hundred billion?”
O'Driscoll: Musk Seeks $70B to $130B in OpenAI Equity Damages
“The damages claim is 70 to a hundred and thirty billion dollars, which would come in the form of extra shares of open AI to Elon and everyone else would have to take the dilution.”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic has closed its valuation gap with OpenAI to 2:1
“The way I keep score is the relative value of Amtropic to open AI is kind of the ratio of let's call it management success from over the last three years. And the truth is it's gone from, you know, 10 or eight to, you know, 10 plus to one to much more converge…”
Lemkin: OpenAI retains only around 60% of its AI researchers
“They still only have like 60 something percent retention in researchers at OpenAI.”
Calacanis: ChatGPT monthly user growth has slowed to single digits
“If you look at the numbers, the growth is down to single digits. Like, it's just, it is empirically true on any source. The growth is down to single digits on monthly growth.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI Is in Code Red Mode, Delaying Expansion
“That's the OpenAI story from a day ago, and the OpenAI story today is almost the exact opposite. It's the code red, focus on the core, and almost like a statement that says, all the other things we've been doing, we ain't doing them now. We're just going to be…”
Stebbings: Sam Altman Says OpenAI Will Hit $20B ARR This Year
“Altman says OpenAI is going to hit twenty billion ARR this year.”
Randle: OpenAI has the fastest growth trajectory in tech history
“What ended up mattering is that it, you know, it's had the strongest and highest growth trajectory Of any technology company in history.”
Randle: Benchmark's top fund investments outperform all post-ChatGPT OpenAI rounds
“Out of our last fund, our five best investments in that last fund today held at LRP last round price are about a 60 X. We have two 30 X's and we have two 20 X's. Since ChatGPT was released, there isn't an open AI round that touches That return multiple and tha…”
Zhang: Valuation gap between OpenAI and Anthropic will shrink over time
“I don't think that long-term necessarily we'll always see a five X difference between open and anthropic. So I guess, yeah, maybe, maybe if the question is more like, what is spread trade? I think like that, that multiple will shrink. Over time.”
ElevenLabs speech-to-text beats OpenAI and Gemini on benchmarks
“Then speech to text is beating open AI, Gemini on benchmarks.”
Deeter: Top three LLM companies will raise $100B in six months
“I think the numbers right now, the top three LLMs, if you include you know, Anthropoc, OpenAI, and X in there, ah, are gonna raise a hundred billion dollars in this six month period”
Lemkin: OpenAI Pays Datadog $240 Million Annually
“So apparently OpenAI pays Datadog two hundred and forty million a year.”
O'Driscoll: ChatGPT generates 70% to 80% of OpenAI's revenue
“ChatGPT, which is, you know, 70, 80% of the revenue dollars when they shipped, they didn't even think it was a major release.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic can become $500B-$1T companies without AGI
“I think both of these companies can be plus or minus, you know, half a trillion to trillion dollar companies.”
Stebbings: OpenAI will top $800B valuation driven by new products
“I'll take the contrarian on you there and say that because of GPT-V and because of Kodak's being two very significant breakthroughs, they'll have enough, plus Johnny Ive coming out with something, a first product, the three combined will be enough to get enoug…”
O'Driscoll: xAI will fail to displace ChatGPT's dominant consumer mindshare
“The market's already been taken and maybe it gets some share of it, but I don't think, yeah, I don't think you can build as big a thing. I don't think you can build, I don't think you can displace ChatGPT at scale in the minds of the consumer, which is 80, 90%…”
Lemkin: OpenAI's stock compensation reached $4.4B, exceeding revenue
“Last year, according to the information open AI had 4.4 billion in stock compensation. That was 119% of its gap revenue.”
O'Driscoll: Coatue's Retail VC Fund Will Sell by Offering AI Access
“Do I think it'll work and raise capital? Probably it will because the facts are there. The other The other PE vehicles have worked. And then let's get real. You know, at the end, it'll be packaged with some version of this is the only way you can get access to…”
Moore: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic will reach multi-trillion dollar outcomes
“We're talking about going from talking about 30 to fifty billion dollar outcomes to multi-trillion dollar outcomes in the form of SpaceX or OpenAI or Anthropic.”