The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 156 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
O'Driscoll: OpenAI misses next year's revenue target by 40% if growth matches Google
“If all OpenAI is, Is just as good as Google, then it's going to miss its number next year by about 40%.”
Mollick: OpenAI's $3B revenue run rate is largely an accident
“I mean, they're incidentally making three billion dollar run rate this year, I think by like just accident, but there isn't like a, there isn't really a product there right now.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI is lobbying in Washington for AI regulation alongside Anthropic
“They're signing this publicly while at the same time lobbying in Washington right alongside Anthropic for a regulatory process.”
Lemkin: OpenAI and Anthropic Lied About Books and YouTube Training Data
“Open AI, an anthropic, Kind of lied about the books, and they definitely lied about training on YouTube”
Lemkin: OpenAI and Anthropic yield 40-70% gross margins on enterprise inference
“They have an enterprise base, which is, it has, you know, between 40 and 70% in, you know, gross margin just on inference.”
Stebbings: Altman Offered $2M in OpenAI Tokens to Every YC Startup
“Sam Altman just offered two million dollars In open AI tokens to every YC startup in the current batch in exchange for equity.”
Lemkin: Anthropic revenue surged to 64% of OpenAI's in 14 months
“Anthropic said it's hundred K customers are up seven X in the last year. So there's not enough time to steal deals. Having said that, going from five percent of OpenAI's revenue to 64% in 14 months, that is stealing budget.”
Lemkin: Sam Altman receives zero equity in OpenAI's corporate restructuring
“They're a little interesting, but the craziest thing in this deal, because it's unprecedented, I think in our lifetimes is OpenAI said that Sam Altman will still have no shares in the combined entity.”
Lloyd: Anthropic API Margins Are 60%, OpenAI Margins Are 50%
“Anthropic has a big margin on their API business right now. What I've heard is 60% margin on Anthropic's API. I've heard 50% on OpenAI.”
O'Driscoll: Sam Altman took 10% of AMD for chip purchasing privileges
“Sam Altman understands power. He has more power than AMD, so he took 10% of their company for the privilege of selling stuff to him.”
Taneja: Anthropic's enterprise business will be bigger than OpenAI's
“I think their enterprise business I'd argue will be bigger than OpenAI if it already isn't already not having spent that much.”
Lemkin: OpenAI Stole YouTube Videos to Train AI Models
“This isn't even stealing YouTube videos like OpenAI did.”
Lemkin: Oracle closed a $30 billion annual deal with OpenAI
“Oracle just closed a thirty billion dollar a year deal with open AI, right? An extra thirty billion.”
Lemkin: OpenAI has a 67% two-year employee retention rate
“67% retention rate employees after two years.”
Lemkin: OpenAI's hardware device will launch within a year for $20
“This is going to be huge. It will launch in a year. It will be massively subsidized. So it'll be 20 bucks for this device. Okay. They will figure out the form factor. I don't know what the right combination is, whether it's embedded in your ear, like the baris…”
Microsoft Board Approved $1B for OpenAI Despite Having No Clear Product
“The very first OpenAI Microsoft deal was, you know, Satya and Kevin Scott brought to the Microsoft board. We want to put a billion dollars into the investment in this vehicle. From a five one C three that doesn't really have any particular plans at making its …”
Stebbings: OpenAI CFO told employees the company will IPO in 2027
“CFO Sarah Fryer told employees at OpenAI, we will be a public company in twenty-twenty-seven.”
Datadog's largest customer, OpenAI, slashed its $150 million software spend
“Datadog's story was just, everything's amazing, but our biggest customer, and everybody knows it's OpenAI and know what it says, right, is suddenly realized they maybe don't need to spend a hundred and fifty million dollars and they're spending less.”
O'Driscoll: Hugging Face defended against OpenAI probe using Chinese models
“The Chinese open source, open rate models were available, and I think they use Kimi or Kuan or one of the newest models to help them figure out what happened, right? So they were able to defend themselves using an open source model, and then they do this blog …”
O'Driscoll: Sandboxed OpenAI test model escaped to query Hugging Face
“OpenAI was training a next generation model and managing cyber and discovering and checking out cyber vulnerabilities. They had sandboxed it in such that the only access externally it has was to one website to just to get kind of Patch of information updates, …”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI reached $12B and Anthropic $4B in GAAP revenue
“The rate at which, you know, OpenAI and Tropic got to four and twelve billion, respectively, other way around, sorry, 12 and four billion, respectively, in GAAP revenue, never before seen, right?”
Perplexity differentiates by orchestrating across competing AI models
“And the way we differentiate ourselves at perplexity Is we don't just orchestrate across tools and files and connectors. We also orchestrate across models. That is the differentiation that Anthropic and OpenAI cannot claim”
Foody: Mercor did not lose OpenAI as a customer after hack
“False. Our relationship with OpenAI is stronger than ever.”
Lemkin: Anthropic has secured more compute capacity than OpenAI
“And now Anthropik, I hate the five D eight D chess metaphor, but now it's gonna, it's figured out a way to have more capacity than open AI.”
Speechify is among 200 companies testing ads on OpenAI
“We're one of the 200 companies that's provisioned to test ads on OpenAI.”
O'Driscoll: AI labs will throttle subscriptions and hike prices for compute
“You're going to see some compute rationally, people are going to start allocating tokens to the highest, effectively the highest bidder. You're going to see a lot of throttling, like, you're going to see these plans, like, that's why they shot Sora. You're goi…”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic reports gross AWS revenue; OpenAI reports net Microsoft revenue
“There was this kind of whole meme of OpenAI reports net on their partner revenue and Entropic reports gross. And what they're saying there is if OpenAI sells through Microsoft and Microsoft takes some money off the top, OpenAI only reports the net amount. If A…”
Lemkin: Sora generated single-digit millions while burning billions in compute
“From what I read, Sorum made single digit millions of revenue, right, and was consuming a million a week, which actually sounds way too low, right? It must have consumed billions and made single digit millions.”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic reaches $19B ARR while OpenAI hits $25B ARR
“Well, to be fair about Entropic and OpenAI, they have a very clear and sensible way they define ARR. What they say is they take the last, the average of the last four weeks to smooth out times to 13, because there were 1304 week periods in a year, which is mor…”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic retained all seven founders while OpenAI lost most
“Which is why they still have the seven founders when the other guys across the street have lost almost all but one or two of the founders.”
Emberikos: OpenAI is the only firm building OS-level sandboxing for Windows AI agents
“We're basically the only company that cares about OS level sandboxing for coding agents. For instance, there's none that exists on Windows. We're the ones building that and we're doing it in open source, so hopefully other people can use it.”
O'Driscoll: Thrive Capital specifically declined Anthropic investment due to OpenAI stake
“They actually specifically, unlike some of the other funds that have invested in both, they've Specifically our fund that said, no, we backed open AI. We're not going to back on tropics.”
Acharya: OpenAI reached $20B top line by tripling capacity and matching demand
“Look, this is not my area of focus or expertise, but one, you look at OpenAI's recent investment announcement, sorry, which is that there are twenty billion of top line. And the way that they got there is they three X capacity and they three X top line. So eve…”
Lemkin: OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI will rush IPOs due to capital pressure
“What all three of those say to me is there's no matter, there's subtle pressure around access to capital. Like they've all got to have an IPO strategy sooner than they'd hoped because Data center, because XAI needs capital, because Anthropic is even worried ab…”
O'Driscoll: NVIDIA issued a document committing up to $100B to OpenAI
“There's a piece of paper. With the NVIDIA logo on it that said we'll do up to a hundred billion, and they put it out there, and now they're like, where's my hundred billion?”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic generate virtually all private AI revenue
“So, objectively speaking, if you kind of add up all the AI revenue, you know, you're going to get thirteen billion for OpenAI, four billion for Entropic, and everything else is in the noise, right?”
Lemkin: Elon Musk Will Not Settle With OpenAI and Will Win
“They ain't going to settle for that. He's going to go to trial and he's going to win.”
O'Driscoll: Musk Seeks $70B to $130B in OpenAI Equity Damages
“The damages claim is 70 to a hundred and thirty billion dollars, which would come in the form of extra shares of open AI to Elon and everyone else would have to take the dilution.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI Will Capture All Ad-Buying Value Natively Without Ad-Tech
“So I think for the paid ads, all the value that's going to be captured is going to be captured by OpenAI, and there's not going to be a optimization engine.”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic has closed its valuation gap with OpenAI to 2:1
“The way I keep score is the relative value of Amtropic to open AI is kind of the ratio of let's call it management success from over the last three years. And the truth is it's gone from, you know, 10 or eight to, you know, 10 plus to one to much more converge…”
Lemkin: OpenAI retains only around 60% of its AI researchers
“They still only have like 60 something percent retention in researchers at OpenAI.”
Calacanis: ChatGPT monthly user growth has slowed to single digits
“If you look at the numbers, the growth is down to single digits. Like, it's just, it is empirically true on any source. The growth is down to single digits on monthly growth.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI Is in Code Red Mode, Delaying Expansion
“That's the OpenAI story from a day ago, and the OpenAI story today is almost the exact opposite. It's the code red, focus on the core, and almost like a statement that says, all the other things we've been doing, we ain't doing them now. We're just going to be…”
Stebbings: Sam Altman Says OpenAI Will Hit $20B ARR This Year
“Altman says OpenAI is going to hit twenty billion ARR this year.”
Randle: OpenAI has the fastest growth trajectory in tech history
“What ended up mattering is that it, you know, it's had the strongest and highest growth trajectory Of any technology company in history.”
Randle: Benchmark's top fund investments outperform all post-ChatGPT OpenAI rounds
“Out of our last fund, our five best investments in that last fund today held at LRP last round price are about a 60 X. We have two 30 X's and we have two 20 X's. Since ChatGPT was released, there isn't an open AI round that touches That return multiple and tha…”
Taneja: Microsoft generated the highest multiple return among OpenAI investors
“Taking that bet was hugely, hugely valuable for Microsoft. I think, and if you look at the return, by the way, if they put in twenty billion, they are the ones who have the highest multiple return as well. So it was a great investment on a financial basis and …”
Zhang: Valuation gap between OpenAI and Anthropic will shrink over time
“I don't think that long-term necessarily we'll always see a five X difference between open and anthropic. So I guess, yeah, maybe, maybe if the question is more like, what is spread trade? I think like that, that multiple will shrink. Over time.”