The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 58 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 58 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Randle: OpenAI and Google will match Mythos Fable quality within 3-6 months
“When OpenAI or when Google, like, they're going to get to Mythos Fable quality models very soon, within the next three to six months, and then we're going to see.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI will emerge from Musk lawsuit with deal intact
“My gut continues to be that even though everyone will look crappy that, you know, open AI get escape with their deal intact.”
O'Driscoll: SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will IPO in that exact order
“SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI in that order.”
Ross: OpenAI is highly unlikely to fail or go away
“At this point, it would be hard to imagine a scenario where OpenAI goes away. I just, I don't see how that happens.”
Casado: Anthropic and OpenAI will remain long-term stalwarts in AI
“Both Anthropic and Opener have done a remarkable job, remarkable with brand independence and market share, and so I suspect they'll continue to be stalwarts in the industry.”
Rory O'Driscoll: OpenAI will publicly accuse Microsoft of antitrust in 2025
“Accused, by the way, is a wonderfully vague word. Will they file a lawsuit and prevail? Maybe not, but will Sam throw words out? Yeah. That two and a half x on a yes, I'd take that chance.”
Seibert: OpenAI won't build direct Notion or Salesforce competitors
“I would doubt if opening eye goes and builds like an ocean competitor or an HR or Salesforce competitor or so on, they probably want to stay at the more generic level”
Socher: OpenAI cited his 2018 multi-task NLP research in early GPT paper
“When in 2018, we invented problems engineering and we got this single model to work for all of these different NLP tasks. You know, it inspired some folks at OpenAI. They cited our paper in their first GPT open papers and cited our research there.”
Lemkin: Initial OpenAI/Jony Ive device will be screenless, but line will include screens
“I think that the first thing that comes out will be no, but ultimately it will be all of it. It'll be, yes, it'll have audio, it'll have screen. It'll be everything.”
Adams: LLM market will mirror cloud infrastructure competition
“There's still a huge amount of competition there, and I think exactly the same will happen with LLMs. They'll be innovating, you know, Google will add a feature, OpenAI will add a feature, some other startup that we don't even know about yet will add a feature…”