The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 661 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 58 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Osika: Invest in xAI's Grok and short OpenAI
“I'd invest in GroK, and I would probably short Anthropic. No, I would short OpenAI.”
OpenAI or Anthropic Will Exceed $10 Trillion Valuation Within Five Years
“I could definitely see one of them being a 10 trillion dollar company maybe even significantly higher. It feels Like the opportunity associated with being the frontier model is so large that it will just like eat up so much of the other demand within the econo…”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic Will Pass OpenAI in Scale and Profitability Shortly
“Within a couple of quarters, Anthropic will be visibly and obviously ahead. Profitable, growing more quickly, and bigger.”
Jason Lemkin: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic combined IPO values will top past 20 years
“The big three, SpaceX plus OpenAI plus Anthropic, their value at IPO will exceed every other IPO for the last 20 years combined.”
Randle: OpenAI could raise at a $1T valuation next year
“I think it'll be a trillion dollar company next year. Yes. I think they could probably raise at the end of the year. Ah, you know, end of the year Q two, I think open AI could raise it a trillion dollars. No problem.”
Casado: OpenAI Lost Its Early Leads In Code, Image, And Video Generation
“OpenAI was the first to code, right? With GitHub Copilot. I mean, they provided the weights. As far as I know, and they lost that. And they were first to image with Dali, and they lost that. And they were the first to video with Sora. And as far as I can tell,…”
Stebbings: I would put my entire $400M fund into OpenAI
“If I could do anything without fear of retribution from my LPs, I'd put my four hundred million fund into OpenAI.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI misses next year's revenue target by 40% if growth matches Google
“If all OpenAI is, Is just as good as Google, then it's going to miss its number next year by about 40%.”
Benioff Passes on OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI Over Product Commoditization
“I don't know if I'd really want to invest in any of them right now because I think in those cases we're seeing all of them to being about the same kind of product. A lot of them are really becoming the same Technology.”
Mollick: OpenAI's $3B revenue run rate is largely an accident
“I mean, they're incidentally making three billion dollar run rate this year, I think by like just accident, but there isn't like a, there isn't really a product there right now.”
Sam Altman: OpenAI will steamroll startups built on static model assumptions
“It would seem to me that 95% of the world should be betting on the latter category, but a lot of the startups have been built in the former category. When we just do our fundamental job, we're going to steamroll you.”
Hulme: AGI hype correlates directly with founders' capital fundraising needs
“I think there is a Correlation between how aggressively people predict AGI is coming and how much capital they need to raise. So you've got Emodi from Anthropic, you've got Altman, OpenAI, Musk, XAI, all of these guys are saying that it's just around the corne…”
Hulme: GV would not invest in OpenAI at a $90B valuation
“I would struggle To make that investment today. No.”
Altman: OpenAI will steamroll startups building static software wrappers
“When we just do our fundamental job because we, like, have a mission, we're going to steamroll you.”
Khosla: OpenAI's AGI Could Eliminate the Need for Human Work
“OpenAI is going after a big, hairy, audacious goal of building an AGI. That, to me, is worth pursuing as an investment, but also for society. It may eliminate the need to work for society, Lots of issues there, but it could be really, really exciting if it wor…”
Stebbings: OpenAI fumbled voice AI due to poor management and hiring
“Well, I think with all candor, that's because of incredibly poor management. And hiring, and that was theirs to take, and they fumbled the bag across every spectrum.”
Reyes: OpenAI and Anthropic are currently in the Netscape and Yahoo era
“We are probably in like the Yahoo era where we don't actually have, or at least widely recognize The Googles of the world, or like the sort of the thing that comes after. And so today, when I look at OpenAI and Anthropic, there are, I think, more analogies to …”
Reyes: Frontier labs must pursue regulatory capture or multi-model architectures
“Part of what needs to happen in order to make these
companies like Anthropica and OpenAI realize the value is they either A, which they're pursuing, have to go through regulatory capture, in which case they go and they tell, they sort of scare politicians int…”
Lemkin: Databricks and OpenAI IPOs will be nail in coffin for SaaS
“I think it will be the nail in the coffin for almost every public software company. And what I mean is when Stripe and data, like, okay, there's OpenAI, there's Anthropic, we can put them in a different category, right? They clearly are on many levels. When Op…”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI will IPO later and lower than Anthropic
“The rank, the most, the big picture fact is the ranking has changed, and you're now number two. So you will go out later then and a lower price than the other guys, unless you change the trajectory massively.”
Anthropic will IPO soon after pulling ahead of OpenAI's ChatGPT
“They will go public because this is peak brass ring moment, and you know, you could argue the trends in 27 are tougher. You've pulled ahead of ChatGPT, so just put a nail in the entropic pit, right? You've pulled ahead of ChatGPT comfortably, OpenAI, to a poin…”
Stebbings: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei will successfully lobby for AI restrictions
“I just think Sam Altman is someone who I would never, ever bet against, and I think he's the best politician in the world, and I think when he says something, he says it with intent, and when he says we should give five percent away to the administration, he's…”
Angelopoulos: Open-source AI pressure could cause insolvency for leading frontier labs
“And I think that the reason to be worried is because if the open source ecosystem somehow makes the cost saving opportunity for businesses much more salient and therefore decreases the revenue of companies like OpenAI and Anthropic within the enterprise, that …”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI is lobbying in Washington for AI regulation alongside Anthropic
“They're signing this publicly while at the same time lobbying in Washington right alongside Anthropic for a regulatory process.”
O'Driscoll: Major Startup Breakthroughs Rely on Boundary Pushing Legalized Upon Success
“So many breakthroughs rely on a little bit of pushing the boundaries. I mean, Uber did with taxi regulation. Airbnb did with regulation. You're right. Polymarket did in terms of how they're regulated. So I'm actually going to get off my high horse and say you …”
Lemkin: OpenAI and Anthropic Lied About Books and YouTube Training Data
“Open AI, an anthropic, Kind of lied about the books, and they definitely lied about training on YouTube”
O'Driscoll: Microsoft and OpenAI Are in a Stale Marriage Looking for Divorce
“Microsoft owns 30% of OpenAI. If ownership stake resulted in besties, they'd be besties. They're not besties. They're in a stale marriage looking for a divorce, but can't quite pay, you know, pay the tax, right?”
O'Driscoll: Microsoft lacks compelling proprietary AI products beyond OpenAI stake
“So when you zoom out a million miles, Microsoft, which is in the software business, unlike Apple, and therefore can't afford to stay apart from the great AI wars, other than its equity ownership in open AI doesn't have anything compelling to bring to the table…”
Lemkin: OpenAI and Anthropic yield 40-70% gross margins on enterprise inference
“They have an enterprise base, which is, it has, you know, between 40 and 70% in, you know, gross margin just on inference.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic rely on $300B spent by other companies
“The whole reason the OpenAI and Entropic models work is because other idiots have spent the three hundred billion dollars on their behalf.”
Petersen: Anthropic is a better investment than OpenAI at equal valuation
“I think I'm going Anthropic. No offense, because Sam's a friend of mine, but. Yeah, the enterprise business seems great. And the team, I think there's a lot of value of like this cohesive team that's been together forever, and OpenAI's had ups and downs, and p…”
Degnan: Salespeople at mega-funded AI startups are passive passengers lacking skill development
“These companies all, pretty much everyone's a passenger, because there is no accountability. You're not learning anything from a sales, you know, perspective. Eventually that will come to bite you in the, in your butt, in your career.”
Stebbings: Altman Offered $2M in OpenAI Tokens to Every YC Startup
“Sam Altman just offered two million dollars In open AI tokens to every YC startup in the current batch in exchange for equity.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI has compute but flawed models; Anthropic lacks compute
“OpenAI got one job right, they have enough compute, and they got the model wrong, so that's why they're in trouble. And Entropic did it the exact opposite way, right? They got the model perfect. In fact, they may have over-succeeded, and as a result of that, t…”
Reyna: I would choose to acquire Anthropic over OpenAI
“Anthropic. And I've put it online, like, multiple times.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI's acquisition of TBPN is an absurd vanity project
“So I challenge that. I think it's a vanity project and absurd.”
O'Driscoll: xAI is at best fourth in LLMs while burning $12B yearly
“We just had a long conversation on Entropic versus OpenAI, And they're kind of number one and two in this space, and Gemini, Google is almost certainly number three, so x.ai is number four in the kind of model LLM space at best, burning twelve billion dollars …”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI's rapid executive departures smack of management carelessness
“To me, even all these people change, you know, I, I'm tempted to make that, you know, that the famous Oscar Wilde quote in the importance of being earnest, you know, to lose one parent might be an accident when he was talking to the, this woman was talking to …”
Lemkin: Investing in OpenAI at high valuations is too risky due to non-technical leadership
“I'm just not into the tumult at open AI. I'm not into the drama. I'm not into a non tech, non deeply technical founder leadership. It's just not my vibe. Like I wouldn't invest in anything like open AI at a high price. It doesn't matter what it is. Cause it's …”
Stebbings: OpenAI should acquire Sierra and make Bret Taylor CEO
“It's the best thing for OpenAI not to buy Sierra, incorporate that as a customer support product, and have Brett Taylor come in as the day-to-day CEO, and Sam can be fundraiser, Sam can be master of...”
Lemkin: OpenAI is struggling and facing an internal code red
“You can smell open AI struggling right now. You can just smell it. You can smell the code red and the fact that they said yesterday, we have to concentrate on enterprise. We have to stop side projects.”
Mitchell Green: $2B valuations for AI spinout ideas are complete lunacy
“People that spin out of Like, Anthropic or OpenAI and raise money at, like, two billion dollars for a freaking idea. Like, there's nothing more than an idea and a napkin. To us, that seems complete lunacy.”
Mitchell Green: Multi-billion VC funds are insane and require hitting next Google
“I think it's insane. I think these funds are way too, and they, just do the math, the fund math on like how, they're clearly, you have to have the next open, you have to have the next Google, effectively, or the math doesn't work, I don't think.”
O'Driscoll: Musk's death would cut Tesla 80%, Altman's cuts OpenAI 25%
“Tesla trades at a trillion today. I think if Elon died tomorrow, they traded two hundred billion. OpenAI trades at eight hundred billion today. I think if Sam Altman died tomorrow morning, we traded six hundred billion.”
Emberikos: Enterprise AI adoption does not require forward-deployed engineers
“So, so even though I am literally hiring FDs and if you're an FD, please apply for a job with me. I actually disagree with that entirely.”
Lemkin: Anthropic revenue surged to 64% of OpenAI's in 14 months
“Anthropic said it's hundred K customers are up seven X in the last year. So there's not enough time to steal deals. Having said that, going from five percent of OpenAI's revenue to 64% in 14 months, that is stealing budget.”
Cohen: Sierra, OpenAI, and Anthropic Fail at Complex Vertical AI Needs
“There is nothing even remotely closed to what is needed when you go to a complex vertical out there. Okay. And it's definitely not in the kind of Sierra level, but even if you take it to the level of the APIs, If I'm kind of taking an anthropic and an open AI,…”
Junestrand: Anthropic and Gemini will outperform OpenAI in enterprise AI
“I'll bet based on what I've seen in the last sort of three, six months. I think for our type of work, it will either be cloud or Gemini. That is the top model. And it will be dependent on if context window is a very important factor or not. So far it is not be…”