why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mostaque: Only 5 or 6 foundation model companies will exist in 3-5 years
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. I think it's going to be us, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
Assertion Contradicted
Feldman: Cerebras deployed more exaflops than anyone except Nvidia and AMD
“We, we've deployed tens of exaflops of compute vastly more than anybody else that, that, that isn't AMD or NVIDIA, right?”
Assertion Contradicted
Morin: AMD GPUs achieve 4x inference throughput over Nvidia setups
“If you run on AMD, well, there's enough memory inside the GPU to run one model per card. So you get, you know, eight GPUs, eight times the throughput, while on the other hand, you get eight GPUs, two, you know, two, maybe two and a half times the throughput. S…”
Assertion Contradicted
Morin: Switching from Nvidia to AMD offers 4x spend efficiency
“A simple example is if you know, switch from Nvidia to AMD on a seven TB model, you can get four times better efficiency, right? In terms of spend.”
Assertion Contradicted
Ross: NVIDIA holds a cornered resource as HBM monopsony buyer
“You don't normally think of tech companies as having a cornered resource, but Nvidia has a cornered resource. They're a monopsony, the opposite of a monopoly, a single buyer for HBM, and the Interposer, the COOS.”