The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2031
Cohen: Navan will ultimately capture the entire corporate travel market
“And I think as the, as long as we will service our customers and our users, the business will continue to gain share. We're going to take the entire market. I really believe in it.”
Ariel Cohen Feb 7, 2026 ▶ 36:38 20VC: From $6.2BN Market Cap to $2.8BN: What Is Not Translating About Navan's Public Story | Are Any Public Company CEOs Actually Happy? | Why Navan Built It's Own Customer Service AI and What it Could Mean For Customer Service AI with Ariel Cohen
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2027
Lemkin: Tech startups below Figma's caliber will struggle to IPO
“If you're not Figma or better, it's going to be rough out there. And that all these VCs are saying you can IPO at a hundred million and the IPO, the Vaughn says no to me. It says it's just barely cracked opened.”
Jason Lemkin Jan 8, 2026 ▶ 1:03:58 Groq’s $20BN NVIDIA Deal | Why Sam Altman Doesn’t Care About Dilution & Invisible Unemployment 2026 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Open · timeframe Sep 2027
Stebbings: Tech companies like Klarna build their own customer support AI
“And then the worst thing about this market is that for any sophisticated buyer, an Airwallex, a Klarna, a Navan, a technology-facing company, everyone has built their own.”
Harry Stebbings Sep 5, 2026 ▶ 50:51 How to Build Your Own Data Center & Why Every Startup Should Do It
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2046
Ariel Cohen plans to build Navan for another 20 years
“11 years in this journey, and probably at least for me, another 20, 20 years to go.”
Ariel Cohen Feb 7, 2026 ▶ 4:36 20VC: From $6.2BN Market Cap to $2.8BN: What Is Not Translating About Navan's Public Story | Are Any Public Company CEOs Actually Happy? | Why Navan Built It's Own Customer Service AI and What it Could Mean For Customer Service AI with Ariel Cohen
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