The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Lovable scaled from zero to $300M ARR within one year
“Where you see a company go from zero to something like three hundred million in a year. I think we intercepted them around, well, we kind of got, tried to get in when they were around 30, 30 of error, but we around, we did was around one 50.”
Matt Murphy Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 19:18 Will Open-Source Threaten Anthropic's Business & Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | Matt Murphy
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Anthropic publicly warned Menlo Ventures against SPVs last year
“Anthropic last year warned Menlo, one of its best investors and others, enough with the SPVs, they said publicly, enough with the damn SPVs.”
Jason Lemkin May 14, 2026 ▶ 5:48 Anthropic Buys Compute From Elon & Commits $200BN to Google | Cerebras IPO | Ramp Raises at $40BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
AI startups are reaching $100M revenue in one year
“When we look around and see these companies doing zero to a hundred in a year, never seen anything like it. And there's more examples of that than I can probably count right now.”
Matt Murphy Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 52:15 Will Open-Source Threaten Anthropic's Business & Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | Matt Murphy
Assertion Contradicted
O'Driscoll: First venture rounds for OpenAI and Anthropic were $23B and $4B
“The first venture round at OpenAI was twenty-three billion pre with Thrive, and the first venture round at Entropic was four billion pre with Spark and Menlo, you know, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 56:40 Anthropic’s $10B Raise | a16z’s $15B Fund: Is the Middle Dead in VC? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Pishevar: Menlo's $26.5M Uber investment grew to nearly $6.7B
“For twenty million at the time, later I got another six and a half million through secondary for Menlo. So that investment at today's prices is worth almost seven billion dollars.”
Shervin Pishevar Jan 13, 2025 ▶ 12:01 Shervin Pishevar: What Really Happened in the Firing of Travis Kalanick | E1245 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Menlo Ventures raised a $3B fund following its Anthropic bet
“Menlo just raised a three billion dollar fund after 50 years on the back of a crazy bed in Anthropik that, that, that went very well, right? When the margins were crazy”
Jason Lemkin Jun 25, 2026 ▶ 51:07 DeepSeek Raises at $50B | The Rise of Open Source vs OpenAI & Anthropic | OpenAI Builds Own Chip · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Partly held up
Lemkin: Menlo Ventures will 10x to 15x its investment in Chime
“They said they did the Series B, right? So they did the Series B at 203 hundred. Maybe we can figure it out on the fly. They're going to, this will be a nine. There'll be some dilution. They'll 10 or 15 X their money, right? That'll be a fun returner or more t…”
Jason Lemkin Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 23:36 Is DPI The Only Thing That Matters? with Sam Lessin, Jason Lemkin & Rory O’Driscoll · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
RealtyShares surpasses $200 million in funded deals with top VC backing
“RealtyShares recently announced an incredible two hundred million funded deals through the platform, so a huge congratulations to them. For that, and they've also raised funding from some of the world's best investors, including the one and only Union Square V…”
Harry Stebbings Oct 21, 2016 ▶ 0:22 20VC: Why Adaptability Is Key To Fundraising, Why Supply Is Always The First Priority In Marketplaces & Why Sometimes You Have To Hire Fast & Fire Fast with Nav Athwal, Founder & CEO @ RealtyShares
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