The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Legacy pre-AI SaaS companies will die when their contracts renew
“I think when the renewals come, they all just die like Marketo. They're just all gonna die.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 16, 2026 ▶ 1:19:15 Zuckerberg Back on X Challenging Codex & Claude Code | SK Hynix’s $26BN IPO · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Lemkin: Adobe's Marketo is in terminal decay and heading to zero revenue
“It is going to zero. It is, but it is one of the slowest decays you can get, right? Because moving off a marketing automation system in the enterprise is very slow, but it is without question going to zero. There are no net new logos and everyone hates it.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 16, 2026 ▶ 1:19:37 Zuckerberg Back on X Challenging Codex & Claude Code | SK Hynix’s $26BN IPO · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Lemkin: AI agents render Marketo, Outreach, and Salesloft worthless
“They're not going to recommend Marketo for your agent to do marketing automation, ok? In fact, it mocked Marketo outreach and sales loft as tools useless to agents. Ok, this API grid. They said there is no place in the, an agent will never send an email throug…”
Jason Lemkin Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 7:26 Anthropic Raises $45B but Falls Short on Compute & Thoma Bravo Hand Back Medallia Keys to Creditors · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Lemkin: B2B SaaS will see Bending Spoons-style roll-ups revive legacy software
“And I think there's also going to be another bending spoons in B to B that's going to nail this. They're going to buy these horrific products like Marketo and others, put a few smart people in it and just boost the NRR.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 2, 2026 ▶ 47:07 Coinbase Cuts AI Spend by 50% | Kalshi's $40B Valuation & Impending IPO | The Year for SaaS Roll-Ups · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Lemkin: Churned from Marketo after price jumped from $22K to $80K
“We just turned off Marketo. They raised our prices from 22,000 to 80,000 dollars since 2020. We left.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 29, 2026 ▶ 59:44 Jensen's Open-Weights Letter | Google Cloud Grows 82% But The Market Tanks
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