The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 19 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Partly supported
Osika: Lovable's 85% month-one retention outperforms ChatGPT
“We have month one retention that's better than ChatGPT's month one retention on paying customers, and so it's about 85%.”
Anton Osika Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 32:31 Anton Osika, Co-Founder and CEO @ Lovable: Hitting 85% Day 30 Retention - Better than ChatGPT · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Lovable scaled from zero to $300M ARR within one year
“Where you see a company go from zero to something like three hundred million in a year. I think we intercepted them around, well, we kind of got, tried to get in when they were around 30, 30 of error, but we around, we did was around one 50.”
Matt Murphy Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 19:18 Will Open-Source Threaten Anthropic's Business & Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | Matt Murphy
Assertion Supported
Verna: Every Lovable employee is expected to ship code to production
“Every single employee at Lovable expected to ship code to production.”
Elena Verna Mar 14, 2026 ▶ 12:50 Elena Verna: How Lovable Launches Product & Hacks Social to Go Viral · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Lovable and Replit both reach nine-figure revenues
“And that's why lovable and Replit are in a death match. And it's very powerful. They're both at nine figures in revenue. They won't kill each other.”
Jason Lemkin Oct 2, 2025 ▶ 24:46 Are Burn Multiples BS in an AI World? & Sam Altman Needs $1TRN of Energy · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Replit raised at $3B valuation with similar $100M ARR to Lovable
“13 days later, the exact same company called Replit. That's the one I use. Same company closes at three billion. Basically the same ARR, basically the same company.”
Jason Lemkin Sep 4, 2025 ▶ 33:41 Anthropic Raises $13BN & OpenAI Buys Statsig for $1.1BN All Stock · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: Figma and AI coding tools will compete within 12 months
“Today, they're great partners. It doesn't make sense that they will be great partners for prototyping in 12 months. It makes no sense.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 31, 2025 ▶ 1:12:43 Why Apple Needs a Management Overhaul & Why Google is Catching Up with Hyperscalers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Lemkin: Lovable will reach $400M ARR by end of next year
“First, I have no doubts. That's easier to do the math. One to a hundred in six months. I mean, that would be a colossal F-up if it doesn't get to 400.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 31, 2025 ▶ 1:17:03 Why Apple Needs a Management Overhaul & Why Google is Catching Up with Hyperscalers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Osika: Lovable is currently adding $2M in ARR every week
“Two million ARR per week.”
Anton Osika Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 20:49 Anton Osika, Co-Founder and CEO @ Lovable: Hitting 85% Day 30 Retention - Better than ChatGPT · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Stebbings: Lovable reached a $13.5B valuation with $600M to $700M ARR
“And suddenly it's a 13 and a half billion dollar business at 607 hundred million of ARR.”
Harry Stebbings Aug 29, 2026 ▶ 56:32 Should American Enterprises Work With Open-Source Chinese Models? | Only 10% of Neo-labs survive
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Lovable Reached $500M ARR With 146 Employees
“Lovable, so literally just before we came on, Lovable hit five hundred million of error. The number, number was wrong. So five hundred million of error with 146 employees.”
Harry Stebbings Jun 11, 2026 ▶ 39:53 SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Lovable has surpassed $350 million in ARR
“They are now at over three hundred and fifty million in ARR.”
Harry Stebbings Mar 14, 2026 ▶ 0:10 Elena Verna: How Lovable Launches Product & Hacks Social to Go Viral · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Lovable's latest funding round valued the company over $6.6 billion
“Their latest round put them at over 6.6 billion dollars.”
Harry Stebbings Mar 14, 2026 ▶ 0:13 Elena Verna: How Lovable Launches Product & Hacks Social to Go Viral · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: AI coding tools Lovable and Replit generate $300M-$400M in revenue
“If you take, you know, again, to your example of, I'm sorry, my brain Figma, right? The maker, the next generation product tools like lovable, And Replit, right, they're doing three, four hundred million in space.”
Rory O'Driscoll Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 42:39 Thrive Raises New $10B Fund | OpenAI Buys OpenClaw | Stripe at $140B: Is Adyen Wildly Undervalued? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: AI Startup Lovable Reached Over $170M ARR in First Year
“Lovable had their first year anniversary today. Oh, the other day. And I thought that was insane. First year anniversary, over a hundred and seventy million an hour.”
Harry Stebbings Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 41:43 Thinking Machines Co-Founder Joins Meta for $3.5BN, Industry Venture's $665M Acquisition · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Osika: Lovable will expand into general business administration and finance
“Lovable today is your technical co-founder. We want it to be your co-founder in general that handles all the admin, setting up your finance operations”
Anton Osika Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 7:59 Lovable CEO, Anton Osika: The State of Foundation Models, Grok vs OpenAI, and Replit vs Bolt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Lovable Raised at $13.3B Valuation from Menlo Ventures
“Lovable, who raised a new round from Menlo. They're around the 607 hundred million ARR range too, raising at a 13.3 billion dollar price.”
Harry Stebbings Aug 20, 2026 ▶ 1:02:44 Stripe's $8B OpenRouter Bet | Anthropic's First Profit & The Math Behind Reaching $600B in Revenue?
Prediction Partly held up
Verna: Lovable is committed to launching product releases every single day
“At Lovable, we are committed to launching every day, so there's like ongoing buzz that is happening.”
Elena Verna Mar 14, 2026 ▶ 50:26 Elena Verna: How Lovable Launches Product & Hacks Social to Go Viral · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Lemkin: Replit and Lovable will surpass $250M combined ARR
“I would say over, over two 50, but barely.”
Jason Lemkin Oct 9, 2025 ▶ 1:29:34 OpenAI's Multi-Billion Deal with AMD & Polymarket, Vercel and Supabase Raise Mega Rounds · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Osika: Users are building revenue-generating SaaS companies entirely via Lovable prompts
“When we went on to iterate over the coming year, we packaged together all of these things so that you can ask today lovable, I want to build a basically a SaaS business, and then people have built their entire SaaS companies and get made money by just promptin…”
Anton Osika Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 11:05 Anton Osika, Co-Founder and CEO @ Lovable: Hitting 85% Day 30 Retention - Better than ChatGPT · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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