The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Not yet assessed
Lemkin: Replit and Lovable achieve over 50% gross margins using cheap models
“Replit and Lovable, frankly, are using cheap models. Most people don't know or care, and they're well marked up. The margins are north of 50, the gross margins, okay?”
Jason Lemkin Nov 20, 2025 ▶ 12:53 Peter Thiel and Softbank Sell NVIDIA - Why? & Why VC Will Hit $1TRN and The Opening of Retail · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030
Mohan: Non-developer AI coding tools and developer AI IDEs will converge
“I think with time, they're going to need to build out more and more tunables, more and more ways to configure the product with time. But I think for us, if we can deeply understand code, like large code bases, it'll naturally follow that with very little effor…”
Varun Mohan Jun 2, 2025 ▶ 14:52 Windsurf CEO & Co-Founder, Varun Mohan: AI's Biggest Acquisition to Date! · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Lemkin: Vibe coding tools will eventually build $100M+ revenue B2B apps
“No one built a game changing B to B app with nine figures of revenue on lovable or replet. I do believe it will come.”
Jason Lemkin Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 28:06 Predictions for 2026: Top Buy & Biggest Short | Why Salesforce Could Win & NVIDIA’s Challenges · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Osika: Lovable will act as a full-stack AI co-founder by 2026
“I mean, it's your perfect co-founder that you go to with your idea from the idea stage, but also all the way up to growing your business once you have customers and taking care of like what Elena is doing, optimizing the product for growth, optimizing the prod…”
Anton Osika Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 1:01:16 Lovable CEO, Anton Osika: The State of Foundation Models, Grok vs OpenAI, and Replit vs Bolt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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