The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 91 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
O'Driscoll: AI coding tools Lovable and Replit generate $300M-$400M in revenue
“If you take, you know, again, to your example of, I'm sorry, my brain Figma, right? The maker, the next generation product tools like lovable, And Replit, right, they're doing three, four hundred million in space.”
Lovinsky bets UX application-layer AI tools will beat dev tools to mass UX
“I guess I would probably bet on people working at that UX application layer already.”
Lemkin: Vibe coding tools will eventually build $100M+ revenue B2B apps
“No one built a game changing B to B app with nine figures of revenue on lovable or replet. I do believe it will come.”
Rory O'Driscoll: AI-first startups have a growth edge over incumbents like Wix
“In the absence of data to the contrary, the prior is that the AI first company has the edge in terms of growth, so I'll go at lovable at the margin, but I'm a bit nervous at six billion, just to be clear.”
Stebbings: AI Startup Lovable Reached Over $170M ARR in First Year
“Lovable had their first year anniversary today. Oh, the other day. And I thought that was insane. First year anniversary, over a hundred and seventy million an hour.”
Osika: 80% of Lovable's revenue comes from complex app builders
“And 80% of people are in the first category. They're building real complex applications.”
Osika: Lovable uses Anthropic for coding but OpenAI for complex debugging
“And then we use for code writing, we usually use Anthropic. And right now you can say like, I want to use GPT-V and that's better when you're solving a really hard debugging problem.”
Osika: Lovable will expand into general business administration and finance
“Lovable today is your technical co-founder. We want it to be your co-founder in general that handles all the admin, setting up your finance operations”
Halligan: Prosumer and Enterprise AI Succeeded, but SMB AI Lags
“The stuff I see, Jason, is there's a ton of prosumer stuff that's working. Lovable's working. Reflet's working. Gamma's working. Like, so many prosumer things seem to be working. And then enterprise is working. You're right. I haven't seen much in between.”
Lemkin: AI platforms like Lovable will build defensible software wrappers
“And so lovable and friends are going to build these thicker and thicker wrappers because they have to do security, right? They have to contain the AI. They're torturing Claude to do things it doesn't want to do. Claude wants to lie and seek out things and shar…”
Flanagan: Claude's app builder is inferior to Lovable and Replit
“I don't see Claude as being as good as Lovable or Repplet. I think it's much more between Repplet and Lovable”
Lemkin: Founders Fund's $1B Anduril check shows superior conviction over standard AI growth deals
“They're putting a billion in, right? That's much more ambitious than throwing a growth fund throwing fifty million into the last round of Anthropic, right? Or throwing twenty million into Lovable. It's a big bet, right?”
Mohan: Design-to-code tools address a tiny fraction of software engineering
“The things that the lovables and figmas do as like maybe a very small fraction of what software is. Like ultimately, like most software is not just like a website that, that it has like some backend attached to it.”
Stebbings: 20VC Invested in Lovable at a 10x Revenue Multiple
“When we did Lovable, I think it trebled its revenue by the time the round had completed, and I was like, I would want to retrade on price. Like, it literally was only a 10 X revenue multiple when we did it.”
Harries: Traditional PMs Will Shift Into Growth or Product Engineering
“Yeah, I think PMs move to either growth, so you combine the PM role with marketing, and depending on your size and how strong your engineers are, you do more or less of the PM, or many PMs will actually move towards product engineering, which is they're somewh…”
Biilmann: AI builder tool revenue is durable, not a sugar high
“When I look at tools like bold and lovable, the category itself has something where it seems obvious that there will be a lot of money spent there. Just because like, when you see some of the examples of what people can do with those tools that they just could…”
Osika: Tech megacorps won't build the best products for years
“The big megacorps, they move very slowly in many domains. So they're never going to, in many years, they're not going to have the best product on the market.”
Osika: Domain experience can be a negative signal when hiring
“So I think experience can be a negative thing in some cases. You often want people who are super ambitious, they have a lot to prove, and they are more open-minded towards how, how you should work together in the team.”
Osika: Early startups must say yes broadly, but scaling requires focus
“What works in the beginning Is to say yes onto a lot of opportunities and try out what works. Once you become more people and you have to follow up and maintain everything that you start, you have to be much more focused.”
Osika: Founders should prioritize minimizing equity dilution over growing the pie
“Here again, like I have a very wise person who was like, no, dilution doesn't matter so much. It's all about the size of the pie. And I think that was, I was both affected by that advice as well as my, like, no, minimize dilution. This is my life, life's work.…”
Stebbings: Lovable Raised at $13.3B Valuation from Menlo Ventures
“Lovable, who raised a new round from Menlo. They're around the 607 hundred million ARR range too, raising at a 13.3 billion dollar price.”
Verna: Waiting for revenue decline to react is already too late
“Knowing the key predictive indicators that will lead you into the decline, not just looking at revenue, because when moment revenue starts declining, it's already too fucking late. So like, you need to know like beforehand, what will I see? What will lead? Wha…”
Verna: Lovable is committed to launching product releases every single day
“At Lovable, we are committed to launching every day, so there's like ongoing buzz that is happening.”
Verna: Lovable's initial growth was driven by founder Anton's social presence
“I think that lovable is where it is right now because of the founder led socials that Anton has really leaned into and has done at the beginning.”
Verna: Lovable's primary North Star metric is daily active apps
“So our North Star metric is daily active apps.”
Jason Lemkin: AI startup retention will improve as enterprise customer bases grow
“As these guys grow, their NRR will go up and the churn will go down, just because for classic enterprise reasons, those big customers are going to be stickier.”
Lemkin: Replit and Lovable will surpass $250M combined ARR
“I would say over, over two 50, but barely.”
Osika: Lovable will act as a full-stack AI co-founder by 2026
“I mean, it's your perfect co-founder that you go to with your idea from the idea stage, but also all the way up to growing your business once you have customers and taking care of like what Elena is doing, optimizing the product for growth, optimizing the prod…”
Osika: Lovable applications generate over $10M ARR for AI model providers
“We looked at, like, the number, this was a few months ago, but we looked at how much Revenue is flowing through the AI from lovable applications. Okay. And it was more than ten million dollars in ARR.”
Stebbings: Replit handles backend builds while Lovable focuses on frontends
“I think Rapplet is for much more heavy-duty application build-outs, and I think Lovable is much more for lightweight, bluntly front-end software build-outs, and both have very valuable positions in market, but they're just very different use cases.”
Osika: Lovable expanded a $3M preemptive offer into an $8M pre-seed
“So we took three million and then we added on I got the advice to say like, yeah, just to get a lot of cash because you never know what happens in the markets. So we raised a quite a large pre-seed round with an up to almost eight million dollars.”
Osika: Lovable wasted effort building early in-product community features
“I think at Lovable we thought a lot about the community, and like community features inside of the product, and the, that, I think that could have made a lot of sense if we had seen slower growth. But now that it's just like growth is not something we, not a c…”
Osika: Lovable has reached nearly 40,000 paying users
“So we have almost 40,000 paying users, and then that's the proxy for that.”
Osika: Users are building revenue-generating SaaS companies entirely via Lovable prompts
“When we went on to iterate over the coming year, we packaged together all of these things so that you can ask today lovable, I want to build a basically a SaaS business, and then people have built their entire SaaS companies and get made money by just promptin…”
Osika: Adding management layers at 40 employees was my biggest mistake
“Thinking that we should change the culture and become a more of a scale up something slow moving or like more management layers when we became 40 people. That's, that was the biggest mistake I did.”
Osika: Say no to most features to maintain Apple-like quality
“You should say no to as many things as possible and make it more of like an apple feeling. The things you do them superb.”
Osika: Hire Top Young Talent Before They Become Founders
“The best people that you can hire at a young age, they would go on and become founders, and then you can't hire them anymore, right? So, so that's why junior people are often quite good.”
Bek Underestimated Lovable Founder Anton Osika Due to Lacking a Meeting Plan
“I had lunch with Anton Ossica from Lovable before he founded the company, and I just didn't see it. And I'll tell you one thing that I learned from that is I didn't come to the meeting with a plan. I just had lunch with him, and it was three of us and him, and…”
Stebbings received 5 to 10 investor intro requests daily for Lovable
“Pre the round that Xenia did, because we were in the round before, it was just embarrassing. I mean, like five to 10 a day and it is very awkward.”
Bending Spoons teams favor Lovable, while Simionato personally prefers Replit
“I think our teams use Lovable more than Replit. I personally use Replit more than Lovable though.”
Osika: Anthropic's Claude is Lovable's main workhorse for code generation
“We use all of OpenAI's models, Google, Gemini, and the main workhorse is Anthropic's cloud model for writing the code.”
Osika: Product user research requires separating UX observation from pain-point discovery
“So they, I think for us, there are two different types of user interviews. We have this type where we just see them use the product and see, like, where do they understand the product? And so that's more of a user experience interview. And the other one is to …”