The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Opinion
Mollick: Silicon Valley founders build narrow wrappers despite predicting AGI
“It is very strange from one hand for all of these people in Silicon Valley to be like, yeah, you know, AGI is coming. And then the applications they're building are like these very narrow, like, hey, I slapped something on top of llama. And you know, it's like…”
Ethan Mollick Jul 31, 2024 ▶ 38:19 Ethan Mollick: Why OpenAl Abandons Products, The Biggest Opportunities They Have Not Taken | E1184 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Bret Taylor: Companies needing standard models should simply fine-tune Llama or Mistral
“You know, I think that in that market probably if you need a model like that, you should download llama. That's the answer. It's like, you don't need much of a cheat sheet on that, you know, and or maybe Mr. All, but pick one of the open source models that are…”
Bret Taylor Oct 2, 2024 ▶ 22:42 Bret Taylor: Why Pre-Training is for Morons & Companies Will Build Their Own Software | E1209 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wang: Most serious enterprises will adopt on-premise AI models
“And this is actually why I think there's a very there's a very big sort of opportunity for whether it's open source models or the llama models or the mistral models or whatnot, basically these models that can go on prem and that enterprises can take. And then …”
Alex Wang Jun 12, 2024 ▶ 24:15 Alex Wang: Why Data Not Compute is the Bottleneck to Foundation Model Performance | E1164 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schroepfer: Meta's early AI lab built the skills that powered Llama
“We built an AI lab at Meta and it was kind of like, huh, this AI thing is going to be pretty big. Let's like start building the skill set. And that's why you see Meta doing Lama now and a bunch of other things, because they, we had all the people, we had all t…”
Mike Schroepfer May 29, 2024 ▶ 19:17 Mike Schroepfer: Former Meta CTO on "Why The Best Leaders are Like Music Conductors" | E1158 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Tavel: Frontier AI models will remain closed source unless Meta shifts market
“If you want a model that's on the frontier, that's going to be closed source. Now, look, every, as I mentioned, every month it feels different with what Meta's doing with Llama, that may actually fundamentally change the game. If Meta is willing to make that h…”
Sarah Tavel May 6, 2024 ▶ 38:09 Sarah Tavel: Will Foundation Models Be Commoditised? | E1149 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Meta's pivot to closed-source AI harms the ecosystem
“Also worth noting that they're talking about being much more closed source, which is a significant thing, because at some point someone's going to need the American version of open source, and Lama was that, and now they're pivoting more to be more closed sour…”
Rory O’Driscoll Apr 16, 2026 ▶ 43:39 SpaceX's Financials Leaked: Is it Worth $2TN | Meta Debuts Muse Spark: Are They Back in the AI Race? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Krieger: Distillation Is Unnecessary for Frontier Open-Source AI Progress
“I think the open source models, Like take Llama, for example, like they've been able to do that from their own research and perspective and data ingestion and training. And so I guess I would say distillation does not feel essential in order to unlock those th…”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 29:39 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
LeCun: Key Creators of Meta's LLaMA Have Left for Startups
“Some of the people who produced Llama, the open source LLMs from Meta. So the key people have left already. Okay, to do startups.”
Yann LeCun May 15, 2023 ▶ 1:02:14 Yann LeCun: Meta’s New AI Model LLaMA; Why Elon is Wrong about AI; Open-source AI Models | E1014 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Cannon-Brookes: Anthropic is one of Atlassian's largest AI models
“We use Anthropic a lot. It's one of our biggest models. We use, you know, multiple models which I think is what most good SaaS vendors are doing within their customers' choices, right? Like we use a lot of Gemini, a lot of Anthropic. We have a whole bunch of L…”
Mike Cannon-Brookes Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 2:42 Anthropic's Super Bowl Ad: Who Won & Lost? | Sierra Hits $150M ARR: Is Customer Support Too Crowded? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Rauch: Llama is nowhere near as capable as GPT-4
“Right now, Llama is not as good as GPT-IV. Not even close.”
Guillermo Rauch Oct 6, 2023 ▶ 1:04:02 Guillermo Rauch: Why Great Companies are Defined by How Many Things They Say No To | E1069 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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