why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin predicts Klaviyo will surpass Shopify in SaaS revenue in years
“They will cross, they will be doing more SaaS revenue than Shopify in a couple years.”
Prediction Held up
Lemkin: Klaviyo will be worth close to $10 billion
“Klaviyo is going to be worth, I think, close to ten billion.”
Assertion Supported
Klaviyo Seed Round Was Raised at a 20x ARR Valuation
“So, you know, I remember asking, I was like, hey, look, I know 10 X is the normal thing. Can we do 20 X? And again, we wasn't really scientific and yeah, I mean, this seed investor we were working with just said, yeah, sure. That sounds good.”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Only two SaaS companies have gone public since late 2021
“I'm concerned that we've only had two SaaS-ish IPOs since twenty-twenty-one. We've only had two since HashiCorp was the last one of the bubble of December of twenty-twenty-one, right? Just got bought for IBM. If only had two, we've only had Klaviyo and Rubrik.”
Prediction Held up
Lemkin wagers $2,000 that recent tech IPOs stay above IPO price
“I'll say all three are up. I'll go two grand on this one.”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: 80% of Klaviyo's revenue is generated through the Shopify ecosystem
“80% of Klaviyo's revenue is off Shopify”
Assertion Partly supported
Bialecki: Klaviyo Waited 10 Years Before Making Its First Price Change
“We did our first price increase, like, basically since we, or first price change you know what was it? I guess last year and that was, like, the first one in, like, 10 years.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Klaviyo Is Growing 50% at $750M ARR
“Look at Klaviyo for a minute. They're growing. I mean, the growth's come down a little bit, but they're growing, I think, 50% at seven hundred fifty million in ARR.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Hoffman: Recent tech IPOs will not hold IPO prices by Halloween 2024
“If you're saying, are they all up? I would say, I will say no. I say the chance that they're all up would be very, very would be very low.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Jason Lemkin bets $10,000 that Klaviyo stock will rise 20% within 12 months
“I'll bet 10 grand to anyone that takes it that Klaviyo, 12 months from when this episode goes out or today, whatever Harry says, trades at 20% or higher from where it is today. I'll bet 10 grand it's 20% or higher.”
Assertion Supported
Klaviyo Took 36 Months to Reach $1M in ARR
“For us, we started on January first of 20 12. In year one, we got to a couple thousand dollars in MRR. So say maybe 20,000 dollars in ARR. In year two, we got to a quarter of a million dollars in ARR, which was a huge jump, but we were still, you know, I think…”
Assertion Supported
Klaviyo Raised a $1.5 Million Seed Round Around $1M ARR
“We raised a million and a half dollars and we weren't super, you know formulaic about it.”
Assertion Supported
Klaviyo Scaled to $50M–$60M ARR Before Raising Post-Seed Funding
“We went like a bunch of years where we probably scaled to about, I think it was around 50,000,060 million in ARR before we raised our next rounds.”
Assertion Partly supported
Bialecki: Klaviyo Raised Series A, B, and C Rounds From Single Investors
“When we did our series A, B, C, it was all one investor. By the time you get to the roadshow, you're kind of back to like these party rounds where there's going to be lots of people you're raising from.”