why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Index dropped Town deal after portfolio company Instinct objected
“There was a conflict in venture that has now prevented a deal.
We've spoken about instinct being the AI assistant that's raised from index and benchmark.
Well, there's another AI assistant called town, which we just had on the show and index.
Were going to …”
Insight
Lemkin: Autonomous AI agents hit a 'Dunbar number' where rules inevitably conflict
“If you have too many rules, they always conflict. It's almost unsolvable. There's some number, I don't know, there's some number of Dunbar, there's a Dunbar number for rules where you get out to 40, 50, 60, 70 gates on a process. Poor instinct and GrokBot can'…”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Instinct raised at a $2.5 billion valuation without monetization
“Instinct raised at two and a half billion dollars with no monetization.”
Opinion
Lemkin: Replit, Lovable, and Bolt Now Have Massive Moats
“Replit and lovable of a year ago and bolt were not a moat today. They have massive moats. And so I think it could easily happen with an instinct. All the use cases that has to accomplish become a moat.”
Disclosure
Lemkin: Passing on Instinct at a $2.5B valuation
“The last round was two and a half, Jason. Jason Lemkin: I know. That's why we're going to have to pass on the round.”
Opinion
Greze: Town monetizes enterprise teams whereas Instinct relies on subsidized free acquisition
“I think what we do and generate, we generate revenue, right? From companies, right, that are using us for work with network effects around multiple team members working on it. Like, their product doesn't do any of that. Maybe that is part of their strategy. I …”
Assertion Supported
AI Startup Instinct Raised Venture Funding at $2.5B Valuation
“And these companies like Instinct have raised money at extraordinary high prices for the stage of development they're at, like two and a half billion, indicating there's a lot of venture excitement about this category, rightly or wrongly.”
Disclosure
Stebbings has been pitched 4 to 5 European clones of Town and Instinct
“I've been pitched four to five European Towns or European instincts. I mean, literally four to five separate ones.”