The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 53 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Ilishayev: GoPuff will be a multi-hundred billion dollar business by 2026
“And I think this business over the next five years is a multi-hundred billion dollar business.”
Ilishayev: GoPuff will achieve full company profitability by 2024
“That balance for us at least meant that we're profitable in 20, 24.”
Ilishayev: 10-to-15 minute delivery is not a sustainable business model
“In the U.K., the consumer was almost taught that 10 or 15 minute delivery is a norm. Maybe in somewhat, in New York, that was the case too. And that's not a sustainable business model. Any stretch of the imagination.”
Ilishayev: GoPuff operates markets generating $8 to $9 profit per order
“We have markets that are doing eight or nine dollars positive on a per order basis.”
Ilishayev: Vertical integration is essential for viable instant-delivery unit economics
“The only way to effectively solve this problem for both consumers, which is first and foremost, and then ultimately unit economics, is by vertically integrating. So owning the entire experience end-to-end, owning the micro-fulfillment centers, the inventory, a…”
Ilishayev: GoPuff was EBITDA profitable from day one without external funding
“We didn't raise money for our first two and a half years. Day one, the business was producing EBITDA. It was profitable from day one”
GoPuff created a financial plan requiring no additional outside capital
“We built a new financial model that's completely self-funded. Right. One that doesn't require any more outside capital.”
Ilishayev: GoPuff loses only 2% to 3% of customers after third order
“If you look at, you know, order three, customers that made it over three and you look at the retention cohorts over the next 12 months, we're losing like low double, low single digit percent of our customers, like two, three percent.”
Ilishayev: Unannounced GoPuff business line could eventually match core retail app
“I think that business one day can be as large as our retail business or as large as large as, you know, GoPub as it exists today, right? The GoPub app.”
Ilishayev: Competitors' scale-first instant delivery strategies were fundamentally flawed
“Pretty much everyone else in the instant need space from across the globe had the opposite strategy. You know, all we need to do is open up a whole host of buildings. We'll figure out the tech later. We'll figure out the operational excellence later. We don't …”
Ilishayev: GoPuff controls 70% of the New York City instant needs market
“We own 70% of the instant needs market in New York right now.”
Ilishayev: GoPuff will not add hundreds of warehouses over the next 18 months
“We're not going to add a, you know, fleet of hundreds of more buildings in the next 18 months, right? We'll strategically open buildings where it makes sense, but we're not going to be opening up buildings like we were opening up buildings in the last 18 month…”
Ilishayev: GoPuff achieves gross margins in the high 30s to low 40s
“We have gross margin in the high thirties, low forties, depending on the region that you're in.”
Ilishayev: GoPuff fulfillment center payback period dropped to just three months
“In the beginning, right. It took maybe a year or a year and a half for a building to recoup its investment. And now it's some buildings you open up and three months later, where you recouped all your fixed costs, right?”
Ilishayev: High driver order density reduces variable delivery costs by 50%
“You know, in a market that has a high ODH, the amount of orders a driver could fulfill an hour, versus a market that has a weak ODH, the cost difference on the variable cost side could be as high as 50%.”
Ilishayev: GoPuff has grown triple digits annually for eight consecutive years
“We've been able to scale triple digits year over year for the last eight years consistently”
Ilishayev: GoPuff opens 30 micro-fulfillment centers per month and is accelerating
“We're opening up 30 of these a month and accelerating even more.”
Ilishayev: GoPuff gross margins grew from high 30s to high 40s
“When we started this business, the blended gross margin was in the high thirties, right? It's Now in the high forties and growing and the contribution margin is double digit positive.”
Ilishayev: GoPuff will invest hundreds of millions into European expansion
“So we'll be investing hundreds of millions of dollars in the European market.”
Ilishayev: Micro-fulfillment warehouse tech cannot be replicated in 6 to 12 months
“But to imagine that this could be solved in a year or six months, it's crazy. We're eight years in the making with hundreds and hundreds of engineers, and we're just getting started.”
Ilishayev: 100% of GoPuff mature markets are profitable and cash-flow positive
“A hundred percent of our comp markets that are profitable. They're producing cash flow.”
Ilishayev: GoPuff never entertained or considered opportunities to sell the company
“We had, I think, all the opportunities in the world to exit this business along the years. It's not even something that we frankly entertained or considered.”
Ilishayev: All existing mature GoPuff metro markets generate positive cash flow
“If you look at like on a metro basis, all of our existing metros are producing, you know, cash flow. So you have your call calling your cash cows, right? Philadelphia, Chicago's Boston's, Miami's all of our Texas markets of the world that are producing cash fl…”
GoPuff targets over 55% to 60% steady-state FAM subscriber penetration
“We believe the steady state number is, you know, north of 55 or 60%.”
Ilishayev: First-order cross-category buyers spend $600 more in their first year
“A customer that orders across three categories in their first order will spend 600 dollars more than that year than a customer that orders from one or two categories.”
Gopuff Kitchens simultaneously boosts retention, frequency, and order basket size
“It increases retention. It's very rare that you introduce a category that improves retention, improves frequency and improves basket. Alcohol was one of those one of those categories. The go-up of the kitchen's business is another one of those categories that …”
Ilishayev: GoPuff tested too many side initiatives and opened kitchens too fast
“Probably wouldn't have tested as many things as we've tested. Right. I mentioned pharmacy to you as one. It's like, it's not even the money aspect of the distraction factor for the team. I'm like, not focusing on the things that matter most. Like I mentioned k…”
Gopuff Kitchens achieves a 20% order attachment rate in active markets
“You're seeing in markets where we have go of kitchens, attachment rates of 20%. So 20% of all of consolidated orders, adding a kitchen item in there, something that we cook inside one of the, so I think that business shows a lot of promise, right?”
GoPuff FAM subscription penetration grew from 11% to 30% in six months
“So we started the year with 11% of our subscribers being FAM customers. So FAM is our subscription program. Two quarters later, 11% has now become 30%.”
GoPuff Average Order Value Has Reached the Thirties
“Our AOV has improved, you know, hundreds of percentages since we've launched the business, right? And we had an AOV in the teens, then in the twenties, now in the thirties.”
Ilishayev: GoPuff should have exited Spain immediately after acquiring Dija
“We got into Spain via the Deja acquisition, and We probably should have pulled out immediately instead of waiting to pull out.”
Ilishayev: Recession basket values will hold, but product mix will shift
“I actually don't think baskets are going to change from a dollar amount perspective, but the assortment inside of the basket is going to change, right? More of the kind of budget budget bottles but more quantity versus one kind of high ticket, high end item.”
Ilishayev: Earlier product and engineering hires would have accelerated GoPuff
“If, We hired some of that talent earlier, especially on the engineering and product side, we would have been even further.”
Ilishayev: GoPuff investors pushed for faster European expansion in 2021
“I think midpoint last year, there was a lot of conversation, not just with our board, but investors on how fast we should be moving in Europe. And a lot of folks were really pushing us to expand to Germany faster expand to other areas in Europe faster.”
Ilishayev: GoPuff UK market share will reach low-to-mid 30s within two months
“We're now like, I think, 25% market share in the UK and instant needs. You know, that in the next two months will be in the low to mid thirties, right?”
Salur: Getir targets 10-minute delivery compared to GoPuff's 30-minute model
“Their model is slightly different. They aim for about 30 minutes. We aim for 10 minutes.”
Ilishayev: GoPuff would be larger today if it raised capital sooner
“The other side of the equation was like, business would probably have been a lot larger today, right? We've been able to scale triple digits year over year for the last eight years consistently, but we would probably be even larger today, right?”
Ilishayev: College students represent low-teens percentage of GoPuff customers
“College, while it's an important part of our business, Is in the low teens as a total percentage of our customers”
Ilishayev: GoPuff will reduce average delivery times to mid-teens minutes
“We're really, really confident we could go from, like, low twenties, where we're at now, to mid-teens in a matter of quarters.”
Ilishayev: GoPuff subscribers have 30% higher monthly repeat rates and higher AOV
“Your subscription customers behave in a way that It's very different than your non-subscription customers, right? Like, 30% more repeat on a monthly basis, significantly higher AOV, even though that you removed the delivery fees from your subscription members,…”
Ilishayev: Alcohol yields GoPuff's lowest margin percentage but highest dollar margin
“Alcohol is our lowest gross margin percentage category, but our highest gross margin dollar category.”
GoPuff routing update will boost batching efficiency near double digits and reduce CPO
“The first week of October, we have You know, kind of V-two of that launching which I think will keep P-ninety delivery time stable, but will improve our ability to bin and batch by, I think, you know, pretty close to double digits. So not only you know, that, …”
Ilishayev: GoPuff operates in 1,000+ cities with 12,000 employees
“To now where we are today, you know over a thousand cities on a global scale, you know, 12,000 employees globally”
Ilishayev: GoPuff launched a prescription drug delivery service in Philadelphia
“We launched a pharmacy business in Philadelphia. We're actually delivering prescription drugs to folks.”
Ilishayev: GoPuff will launch new business verticals within two quarters
“Whether it's FBA or AWS is something that we take a lot of inspiration from as we launch our new businesses, right? Whether it's a group of ads or some of the new businesses we have brewing that are launching in the next two quarters.”