The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Google Search, Facebook, and Instagram are stronger than ever
“Fast forward today. These are record growth businesses now, right? Google search. We started the show talking about AI overviews and other things. Google search is a better business than it has ever been as is Facebook and Instagram.”
Jason Lemkin Apr 16, 2026 ▶ 46:28 SpaceX's Financials Leaked: Is it Worth $2TN | Meta Debuts Muse Spark: Are They Back in the AI Race? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Rory O'Driscoll: ChatGPT will succeed without destroying Google Search
“The likely outcome for me is ChatGP continues to build this compelling consumer product, can command differentiated market, while at the same time Google search does not quote unquote go to zero.”
Rory O'Driscoll Nov 27, 2025 ▶ 30:30 Anthropic Raises $30B from Microsoft & NVIDIA & NVIDIA’s Core Business Faces TPU Threat · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Mollick: AI queries use 100x more energy than Google searches
“And the truth is that AI uses a lot more energy per query. We don't know exactly, probably two orders of magnitude than a Google search, but a lot less orders of magnitude energy than a human doing the same amount of work, right, with a laptop.”
Ethan Mollick Jul 31, 2024 ▶ 59:15 Ethan Mollick: Why OpenAl Abandons Products, The Biggest Opportunities They Have Not Taken | E1184 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Lehmann: High LLM compute costs prevent killer apps beyond chatbots
“I believe that one of the overlooked areas of the current state of AI and the large language models that we're using is that they're still very expensive. And as a result of that, they're dramatically more expensive than a Google search. And as a result of tha…”
Bastian Lehmann Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 49:08 Bastian Lehmann: How the Uber Deal Went Down and How a $2.65BN Deal Turned into $5BN | E1137 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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