The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Opinion
O'Driscoll: xAI is at best fourth in LLMs while burning $12B yearly
“We just had a long conversation on Entropic versus OpenAI, And they're kind of number one and two in this space, and Gemini, Google is almost certainly number three, so x.ai is number four in the kind of model LLM space at best, burning twelve billion dollars …”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 9, 2026 ▶ 37:40 OpenAI Buys TBPN & Their Management Team Reboot | Mercor Hack & Why Now is the Time for Cyber · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Junestrand: Anthropic and Gemini will outperform OpenAI in enterprise AI
“I'll bet based on what I've seen in the last sort of three, six months. I think for our type of work, it will either be cloud or Gemini. That is the top model. And it will be dependent on if context window is a very important factor or not. So far it is not be…”
Max Junestrand Jan 26, 2026 ▶ 15:04 Legora CEO, Max Junestrand: $7M ARR in a Day | Harvey vs Legora: Is a Legal AI Winner Takes All? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Agent benchmark ranked Anthropic ahead of OpenAI and Gemini
“In fact, the order is Anthropic. And so the greater it graded Anthropic just above OpenAI and then Gemini was just down here.”
Jason Lemkin Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 7:58 Anthropic Raises $45B but Falls Short on Compute & Thoma Bravo Hand Back Medallia Keys to Creditors · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Nikesh Arora used Google Gemini to draft an investment memo
“I literally had Gemini produce an investment memorandum for something I was looking at. I looked at it looked pretty accurate, give or take, I'd tweak a few things, but it seems passable.”
Nikesh Arora Jun 22, 2026 ▶ 6:27 Nikesh Arora on the Frontier Model Problem: Breadth vs Depth | The Future of Token Costs · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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