The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
Lemkin: Initialized Capital's Fund II will achieve a 10x return
“Their fund two is going to be a 10 X fund, I think with flock safety rippling and others.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 10, 2025 ▶ 11:29 Daniel Gross and Nat Friedman: Acquired by Meta | Microsoft Layoff 9000 People | OpenAI's Bombshell · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Flock Safety faces real pushback in Texas
“Because look, in the great state of Texas, which is pretty low on order, there's real pushback on Flock.”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 3, 2026 ▶ 1:19:14 NVIDIA Crushes Quarter | OpenAI Cuts Off Cursor | Instinct Hits $2.5B Valuation
Disclosure
Geoff Lewis: Bedrock heavily concentrated capital in Rippling, Vercel, and Flock Safety
“So we've concentrated capital in Rippling, Vercel, and Flock Safety to an extreme degree.”
Geoff Lewis Oct 5, 2022 ▶ 42:40 Geoff Lewis: Why I Put $200M into Rippling; Uncapped Notes; "Compound Startups" | 20VC #933 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Geoffrey Woo: Anti Fund Achieved 10x Return on Aerodome in 18 Months
“Rahul Aerodome, that was a ton X in 18 months, rolled a lot of that stock in the flock safety”
Jeffrey Wu Apr 18, 2026 ▶ 56:57 Jake Paul: Traditional VC is Toast & Attention is More Valuable than Cash · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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