The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 9 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lemkin: Anthropic will never build direct Figma or Adobe competitors
“But I do not believe Anthropic will ever build a direct Figma or Illustrator or Adobe competitor. They don't have to maim them.”
Lemkin: Tech startups below Figma's caliber will struggle to IPO
“If you're not Figma or better, it's going to be rough out there. And that all these VCs are saying you can IPO at a hundred million and the IPO, the Vaughn says no to me. It says it's just barely cracked opened.”
Jason Calacanis: Cursor will maim Figma and SaaS incumbents by lowering NRR
“I think the bigger risk for so many vendors is that it maims Figma... HubSpot and box and even anthropic using it, they don't leave, they renew, they don't buy as many seats, right? Because the team is also using cursor, but of course they don't churn. The log…”
Yamashita: Figma engineering headcount won't scale proportionally with product expansion
“I don't think we'll have fewer engineers than we have today, but you know, I think we'll be able to do more than we're able to today. You know, as we expand more products, I don't, expect the number of engineers, for example, to grow in proportion.”
Lemkin: Odds Google builds a long-term Figma competitor approach zero
“I think the odds that they desire, decide to build a Figma competitor from this for a decade approach zero.”
O'Driscoll: Figma's 250% IPO pop was largest since 1999
“Instead of getting, let's call it, the designed 15, 20% pop that makes everyone feel good, you ended up with this absurd 250% pop, right, which is clearly off the charts. I mean, I think it's the largest pop since 1999.”
Halligan: Figma CEO Dylan Field decided IPO pricing, not bankers
“The founders make the decision on what the price is. So Dylan decided at the end of the day.”
O'Driscoll: Carta data shows 18% of 2018 Series Bs returned over 5x
“What it told people for listeners is they looked at all 547, 2018 series B investments, and then they did a histogram of where they come out in less than a one X, you know, one to a two X. Oh, that was series B. So 547, and then, you know, 20, 18% of them grea…”