The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 8 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2031
AI agents will generate more revenue than Google or Meta ads
“These products are not going to be used by you know, a hundred million people. But they will generate revenue that's going to be higher than the advertising revenue of Google or Meta. It's going to happen.”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 18:44 Perplexity CEO: Micron Will Be More Valuable Than Meta & How Export Controls Helped Not Hurt China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Mostaque: Only five or six foundation model companies will survive
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. ... I think it's going to be us, NVIDIA Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 45:46 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2031
Stebbings predicts Meta's stock price would rise if Mark Zuckerberg departed
“If Zuck expired, Meta's stock price would increase.”
Harry Stebbings Sep 5, 2026 ▶ 59:02 How to Build Your Own Data Center & Why Every Startup Should Do It
Assertion Open
Meta Offered an AI Candidate $20 Million Per Year in Cash
“There was someone I was hiring the other day, and he had an offer for twenty million dollars in cash per year from TBD, and like that's the kind of stuff we run into on a regular basis.”
Brendan Foody Jun 1, 2026 ▶ 1:03:48 Mercor CEO: Why Application Layer Companies Have No Moat & The Cost of Hiring AI Researchers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2027
O'Driscoll: AI capex spending will be stopped by demand, not supply
“This isn't, this spending isn't going to stop because the supply side says stop. Facebook aren't going to say stop. Google isn't going to say stop. Microsoft isn't going to say stop. Really, it boils down to the demand side. As long as, and enterprise customer…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 9, 2026 ▶ 41:39 Enterprises Fear Frontier Models | Sam Altman Offers Trump 5% of OpenAI | DeepSeek Builds Own Chips · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2023
Palihapitiya predicts Facebook will acquire politically segmented platforms
“So I suspect what happens at Facebook specifically is you'll have certain properties that are much more right-leaning or libertarian, if you will, and other properties that are much more left-leaning. And I think that that's probably how for them to maintain m…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 12:14 20VC: Chamath Palihapitiya on Why IPOs and Direct Listings Are Broken, Turning Social Capital Into A Combination of Berkshire Hathaway, Koch Industries and The Red Cross, Why Forecasts Are Worthless, What Creates True Defensibility & Why You Have To Be Pr
Assertion Open · timeframe Sep 2026
Alex Schultz: Meta's AI sticker click targets increase ad CTR by 6%
“When advertisers take advantage of that, they get a six percent boost in click-through rate and a commensurate increase in conversion rate.”
Alex Schultz Sep 5, 2025 ▶ 39:49 20Growth: Meta CMO Alex Schultz on How All Founders Have to Change Their Marketing Playbook in a World of AI | Is AI Plateauing, What it Means if China Wins the AI Race and Why Zuck is a Generational Leader
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2028
Meta Will Build an Instagram-Threads Social Graph Sync Option
“We will build over time, I think, a graph sync option. So if you want Just to have the same graph, you can, and we can make sure that stays in sync for you.”
Adam Mosseri Jul 24, 2023 ▶ 42:23 Adam Mosseri: Why Video Is Bad For Business; Does Feed Matter Anymore? | E1039 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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