The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Open-source AI models will bypass Nvidia's CUDA platform
“He's got to go frontier and open and open is dangerous. Open doesn't need CUDA. Open is cheaper and it's lower margins. Open will bypass him, but he's got it.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 29, 2026 ▶ 3:13 Jensen's Open-Weights Letter | Google Cloud Grows 82% But The Market Tanks
Opinion
In AI Inference, Nobody Cares About Nvidia's CUDA or PyTorch
“In inference, the truth is, nobody cares about CUDA. Nobody even cares about PyTorch. All right. What they want is an API.”
Andrew Feldman Oct 6, 2025 ▶ 24:59 Cerebras CEO, Andrew Feldman on Why Raise $1BN and Delay the IPO & Why NVIDIA’s Worried About Growth · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Ross: NVIDIA's software moat applies to training, not inference
“That NVIDIA's software is a moat. Yeah it's true for training, but it's not true for inference.”
Jonathan Ross Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 1:22:01 Groq Founder, Jonathan Ross: OpenAI & Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips & Will NVIDIA Hit $10TRN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Mohan: CUDA is not Nvidia's real competitive moat
“Even a company like NVIDIA, I think everyone outside looking in is like, CUDA is the real moat. Or something like that. I think that's just inaccurate, right?”
Varun Mohan Jun 2, 2025 ▶ 21:44 Windsurf CEO & Co-Founder, Varun Mohan: AI's Biggest Acquisition to Date! · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rory O'Driscoll: Nvidia customers will not abandon CUDA due to switching costs
“For most users, because they have such dominance, such validation of the CUDA software layer, for most customers, it's going to be too much brain debt to switch from the cheap, you know, the GPU you know and love to something new, right? Because there's probab…”
Rory O'Driscoll Nov 27, 2025 ▶ 10:55 Anthropic Raises $30B from Microsoft & NVIDIA & NVIDIA’s Core Business Faces TPU Threat · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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