The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Randle: CoreWeave and AI cloud providers will eventually crash 70%
“I think at some point, like they'll probably, you know, Corweave and all these things will probably go down like 70%.”
Lemkin: CoreWeave's late investors hold a 70% two-year stock buyback put option
“The last round investors. Obviously they weren't fully aligned on the price, right? And so there's structure and I don't think this is a bad thing. It's okay for late stage investors to be more conservative on price than founders. Like, and so they agreed on a…”
Weitzman: NVIDIA guarantees 25% GPU buybacks with Wall Street lenders
“So I believe earlier this month, NVIDIA did a huge deal with Blackstone, BlackRock, Apollo, and Goldman Sachs. And they said, listen, we want more people to buy more GPUs. We're going to underwrite for you up to 25% the value of a GPU. That if you lend money t…”
GPU cloud providers can become multi-hundred billion dollar businesses
“I certainly think they can be sustainable.”
Lemkin: AI hardware and GPU clouds will eventually crash as capacity catches up
“I do think at some point, Sandisk and Nebius and Core, we've all have to crash and Marvell and even Broadcom. At some point they have to crash at some level because they always, I think AI can grow infinite. Like we all approach the singularity, but eventually…”
Rory O'Driscoll: Nvidia backs neoclouds because they cannot build custom silicon
“First of all, there's a reason why they sponsor the Core Weaves and the next generation of NeoClouds, because they're like, those guys ain't going to build their own chip.”
Randle: Dismissing CoreWeave as a low-margin compute middleman was wrong
“When CoreWeave was first raising in private markets, I was like, oh my god, this is, they're reselling a commodity, you know, they're a middleman, they're a broker of compute, it's gonna be low margin, yada, yada, yada. How wrong was I?”
O'Driscoll: AI debt models require three to five years of CapEx growth
“All this depends on three to five more years of continued AI CapEx expansion. If that's the case, everything works, and if that's not the case, all bets are off.”
Lemkin: CoreWeave will show signs of an AI slowdown before hyperscalers
“Core weave, if core weave struggles, if it can't service its debt, if it can't raise more debt through this weird through, through the hyperscalers guaranteeing it, that's where we'll see, even if there's just a bump in this cycle, that's not that, that doesn'…”
O'Driscoll: Pure-play compute infrastructure acts as an amplified, high-volatility AI proxy
“They, these companies become the high octane bet on AI. If you think it's going to go up, you buy Google, you get 20% appreciation, but if you buy CoreWeave and you're right, you could get a double. You're right. So they are the highly amplified bet because th…”
Calacanis: Oracle and CoreWeave stock pullbacks are temporary market jitters
“And there's no reason actually, listen, I'm not saying that, that these are even the best companies we've ever had, but there's no reason I don't think they will rebound as the overall trends. I think these are just jitters. The overall trend I think is still,…”
O'Driscoll: CoreWeave is fundamentally a specialized real estate company
“This model, I mean, and there's nothing wrong with it. It's a real estate company. They're in the business of a very, very sophisticated, clever, risk managing real estate company.”
Tenev: Retail stock buying driven by industry growth, not meme speculation
“People are buying these stocks generally for a very different reason than, you know a meme coin, for example, or even GameStop back in 2021. I think they legitimately believe that these are going to be like gigantic industries.”
Lemkin: Circle and CoreWeave sit on the edge of meme stocks
“It's just Circle and CoreWeave are the crazy ones, and they're at, I think they're at the edge of meme stocks, right?”
Feldman: CoreWeave pioneered borrowing against GPUs as debt collateral
“Many of their innovations are in the financing structure. They were among the first to use the type of debt that they're using to recognize that you could borrow against GPUs and use their access to leverage advantage.”
Feldman praises CoreWeave for pioneering innovative debt financing in AI infrastructure
“I think CoreWeave has been an extraordinarily innovative company. I think they've solved a series of financial challenges with really innovative sort of financial engineering. They were the first to use debt very innovative way.”
Feldman: CoreWeave's financial engineering popularized debt-backed data center financing
“And I think CoreWeave and some of their sort of financial engineering and innovations there helped the world to see that.”
Tenev: Retail investors lack sub-trillion AI stock investment opportunities
“You've got Tesla, where AI is maybe I don't know, 10, 20% of the story there. So you don't have too many opportunities at sub trillion valuations. So when CoreWeave comes along, that's like AI exposure at a lower level, and people are interested in that.”
Lemkin: Unprofitable high-multiple public companies must aggressively buy assets with stock
“If you have a public company trading at a crazy high, high multiple, right? 20 X revenues that has existential losses. You got to use your stock as your currency ASAP. You gotta buy everything you can that can address the bottom line or other challenges you ha…”
David Cahn: Expect More Deals Like Blackstone's CoreWeave Debt Financing
“And so you know, Blackstone did this core weave deal. They were one of the first and Blackstone are generally very good at structuring these type of creative deals. Good on them. And I think we'll see more of that type of deals going forward.”