The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Cognition Reportedly Raising at $46B Valuation With $1.6B Projected ARR
“Cognition raising round at forty six billion dollars reportedly. They will end the year at 1.6 billion in ARR. Currently doing 800 to 900.”
Harry Stebbings Sep 3, 2026 ▶ 37:23 NVIDIA Crushes Quarter | OpenAI Cuts Off Cursor | Instinct Hits $2.5B Valuation
Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2028
Lemkin: Cognition mandated 80-hour weeks and laid off 30% of acquired startup
“Well, I guess today, Cognition laid off 30% of the folks they bought, and they offered to buy out all the other 200 employees. They gave them a nine-month package. They told them they either had to work 80 hours a week, six days a week in the office, or they s…”
Jason Lemkin Aug 7, 2025 ▶ 1:08:15 Figma's 250% Pop - The Greatest IPO Mispricing Ever? Meta & Microsoft Blowout Quarters: Broken Down · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Stebbings: Cognition and Factory will thrive due to model independence
“I respectfully disagree, and that's why I actually think both Cognition and Factory will do very well, because they're model independent”
Harry Stebbings Jun 6, 2026 ▶ 37:17 Inside Legora's Tech Stack: Why Token Maxing is Failing Enterprise Startups | Legora CTO · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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