The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 19 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Cognition Reportedly Raising at $46B Valuation With $1.6B Projected ARR
“Cognition raising round at forty six billion dollars reportedly. They will end the year at 1.6 billion in ARR. Currently doing 800 to 900.”
Stebbings: The $1 Billion Valuation Has Become the New Series A Standard
“I think a billion dollar valuation is the new series, eh? And you're like, whoa, Harry, whoa, whoa, kiddo, calm down, listen to the facts. We used to do a fifty million post and hope it would become a 1,000,000,020 x, without dilution, blunt. Now, you enter at…”
Lemkin: Cognition mandated 80-hour weeks and laid off 30% of acquired startup
“Well, I guess today, Cognition laid off 30% of the folks they bought, and they offered to buy out all the other 200 employees. They gave them a nine-month package. They told them they either had to work 80 hours a week, six days a week in the office, or they s…”
Cognition added roughly $80M in run-rate revenue in six to eight months
“Yeah, look, I don't want to get into exact numbers, but even with the windsurf deal aside, like not including that at all, we are basically, we've done roughly that as well in the last six to eight months.”
Podjarny: Everyone who tested Cognition's Devin says it doesn't really work
“From everybody that I talked to that has tried Devon, they all think it's really cool and that it doesn't really work.”
Lemkin: Cognition will never catch Anthropic but needs $5B-$10B ARR
“It's never going to catch anthropic unless, unless the world changes, which it has every, every single week. But unless the world changes, it's not, and it doesn't need to catch them. Just five to ten billion a year a few years out is enough to make cognition …”
Stebbings: Cognition and Factory will thrive due to model independence
“I respectfully disagree, and that's why I actually think both Cognition and Factory will do very well, because they're model independent”
Cohen: Navan's internal AI routing is shifting significantly toward Google models
“We've seen our agentic platform, Cognition, plays between models based on who will give you the best answer, and actually we saw movement much more to Google recently. A lot of the transactions with Edge, which we didn't release yet, but you know, we have it i…”
Lemkin: Cognition memo stated Windsurf had $82 million ARR
“The memo that Cognition sent to his employees was that they're buying an eighty-two million dollar AR business, ok?”
Lemkin: Cognition could make Windsurf better in 90 days than pre-deal
“This could be better than it literally in 90 days windsurf could be better than it was before this deal. It is entirely possible. It could be a better company than it was before this deal.”
Jake Paul: AI-Personalized Content Could Divert Viewers Away From Traditional Sports
“If I can put into Cognition, or any of these things, and develop my own game that's personally tailored for me with a couple clicks of a button. Why would I watch, you know, the NBA when, like, this game I made for myself has all my favorite things in it, and …”
Wu: Cognition's Devin usage grew 5x to 10x in the past six months
“In the last six months, you know, between January and now, you know, like, even aside from this, you know, obviously the latest deal this week with Windsor The usage of Devon has actually grown something like five to 10 X. And that's been the case in both self…”
Cognition negotiated and signed the Windsurf acquisition over a single weekend
“Get, get to a verbal agreement on Saturday, hash out all the details and the terms and the legal on Sunday, get everything signed and done on Monday morning.”
Cognition initiated cold outreach to acquire Windsurf on a Friday night
“We reached out cold Friday evening and our first conversation was Friday night.”
Cognition learned of Windsurf's Google deal at the same time as the public
“We found out, honestly, on Friday, the same time everyone else did, that all of this was happening, and that this was the split, and that it was Google”
O'Driscoll: Cognition acquired Windsurf with $82M revenue and $100M cash
“Stupendously good optics plus eighty two million of revenue plus a hundred million in cash plus great injury. They win.”
O'Driscoll: Google deal implicitly valued Windsurf's residual business at $400M
“If open AI was buying for three billion and Google buying everything for three billion and Google pleasingly is buying everything except the revenue on a hundred million bucks for 2.6 billion. Implicitly it's valuing the revenue and the hundred million and the…”