why aren't all 34 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Stebbings: TBPN is the Clubhouse of our era with near-zero engagement retention
“I think it's Clubhouse of our era. And so they have brilliant channel market fit, which is they crush it on Twitter for very specific clips. When you look at any of their view rates, very little. When you look at their retention on engagement rates, fuck all.”
Opinion
Stebbings: TBPN Is the Clubhouse of Our Era With Poor Retention
“I think it's Clubhouse of our era, and so they have brilliant channel market fit, which is they crush it on Twitter for very specific clips. When you look at any of their view rates, very little. When you look at their retention on engagement rates, fuck all.”
Opinion
Maples: Clubhouse had 'COVID market fit', not true product-market fit
“I don't think so. I think it had COVID market fit. I think it had a bunch of people staying home, bored out of their minds, trying to figure out what to do, and it became, it was kind of this meme-worthy thing”
Opinion
Clubhouse, OpenSea, and Whatnot Are the Only Notable Recent Consumer Startups
“I think in the past year, there's probably been like Three really interesting consumer companies. It's been Clubhouse, OpenSea, and us.”
Disclosure
Stebbings: I avoid reserves after losing money on Hopin, Clubhouse, BeReal
“I do not do reserves, and I don't because I was in Hopin, I was in Clubhouse, I was in Be Real, all lost money, and then I've got a load of companies which were much slower In enterprise and a phenomenal investments.”
What-if
Stebbings: Reserving capital would have caused bad investments in Hopin and Clubhouse
“If I had done reserves, I would have put money into Hopin, Clubhouse, and be real. That would not have been a good set of events.”
Insight
Live audio fails for passive content but works for active socializing
“Live for content is really hard. From my perspective, Clubhouse is not about content. Clubhouse is about talking. Right. And like I was saying, 70 to 80 minutes a day, people are in these rooms and 30 to 40% of them are talking. They're hanging out with people…”
Opinion
Mignano: Clubhouse failed due to a flawed format, not community neglect
“I see a lot of criticism on, of Clubhouse online that I don't fundamentally agree with, which is, oh, they didn't focus, focus enough on the community. They didn't nurture the community enough. I actually don't think that's the case. I think the format was fla…”
Opinion
Fried was exceptionally bullish on Clubhouse in March 2021
“I am exceptionally bullish on Clubhouse, more so than I've been about any company I've seen in a long time”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2029
Stebbings: Linear will be the primary fund returner for 20VC Fund 1
“My fun one could have been, which you're an Alpean, and I'm very grateful to you for supporting me when I was 1819 but it could have been at one point the Hopin Fund, it could have been the Clubhouse Fund and it turns out that it will most likely be the Linear…”
Disclosure
Stebbings: Hopin, BeReal, and Clubhouse failed to be 20VC's top returners
“With my first fund, after 18 months, I predicted my top five fund returners, and you had your hop-ins, you had your B-reels, you had your clubhouse, and none of the five outperformers ended up being the outperformers, and the five outperformers I always had in…”
Opinion
Maples: Clubhouse never achieved true product-market fit
“I don't think they have product market fit.”
What-if
Stebbings: I should have sold secondary positions in Clubhouse, Hopin, and BeReal
“Truth be told, honestly, Nick, I've been in some rockets that then turned out to not be rockets. Your clubhouse to your hop in to your be real. And they are portfolios with assets in, whether you like it or not in terms of naming. And I should have been much m…”
What-if
Alexis Ohanian regrets doubling down on Clubhouse instead of selling
“Oh, Clubhouse. That's when I should have sold. Should have sold Clubhouse. I had like the series A and I remember when that multi-billion dollar round came up, I actually put more money in because I'm an idiot.”
Disclosure
Stebbings regrets passing up secondary sales in BeReal, Hopin, and Clubhouse
“My biggest mistakes in the last few years, honestly, Kevin, were be real, hop in, a clubhouse. I could have sold in all of them, and I didn't.”
Opinion
Ehrenberg: Clubhouse Was Light Years Away From Public Market IPO Readiness
“And let's just pick on Clubhouse since you raised it. If you had taken a deep breath, looked at an offer, said, huh, from an IPO readiness perspective, where is this company? The objective answer to that question is no fucking where light years away.”
Opinion
Paul Davison dismisses Twitter Spaces as a broadcast product, unlike Clubhouse
“Twitter is doing what they've done in the past, which is helping people broadcast to other people. And I think that, you know, the they've done a fine job at that, and it's pretty different from what I think we target at Clubhouse. And I can talk more about th…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Average Clubhouse users spend 70-80 minutes daily, and 30-40% speak
“Our average person, if you join a room on Clubhouse on, on average, you're there about 70 or 80 minutes a day. 30 to 40% of people are talking, depending if you look on a weekly or daily basis.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
The winning audio social network will be focused solely on spoken audio
“So I believe that the company who wins is going to be company that is fully focused on that medium.”
Disclosure
Clubhouse is splitting into private user-created sub-networks called 'houses'
“Right now, one of the things that we're doing is actually splitting the network up into many different networks. So anyone, any person, any group, any community can create their own private section within Clubhouse called a house.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Clubhouse's public feed shows only a fraction of total network activity
“We have actively seen more and more rooms going private and semi-private over time. So you actually only see a fraction of what's happening on the Clubhouse network when you open the app, and that's increasingly true over time.”
Disclosure
Paul Davison claims Clubhouse has years of cash runway remaining
“We have years of runway right now.”
Prediction Held up
Bangali Kaba predicts Clubhouse will survive long-term
“Does it survive? Yeah, I think it does.”
Assertion Partly supported
Clubhouse grew 10x month-over-month for two months during its viral spike
“And then we had a couple months where we just grew like 10 X every month.”
Prediction Held up
Paul Davison refuses to make Clubhouse a fully distributed company
“I don't want to be fully distributed.”
Opinion
Paul Davison names Bubba Murarka as Clubhouse's most helpful angel investor
“I think Bubba Maraca has probably been the most helpful.”
Disclosure
Sahil Lavingia invested in audio app Clubhouse
“Yeah, Clubhouse is probably the most recently announced one. I did a small check into that company.”
Disclosure
Harry Stebbings notes losing momentum as an investor in Clubhouse and Hopin
“As an investor in Clubhouse and Hopin, I have felt momentum go the other way, my friend.”
Assertion Supported
Clubhouse scaled from 9 to 95 employees in a single year
“We went from nine people to 95 people over the course of a year”
Assertion Supported
Clubhouse raised its Series A with only two people on the team
“So when we did our series A, the company was two of us. Rohan was doing all the engineering. I was doing all the pixels and we would collaborate a lot on product. It was just us.”
Disclosure
Clubhouse had under eight employees six months after its Series A
“Six months after the series A, the company was still probably like seven of us, eight of us.”
Assertion Supported
Clubhouse launched as a single room where everyone was a speaker
“When we launched Clubhouse, it was quite simple. It was a single room. The whole app was a single room. There was no audience. Everyone was a speaker. There was no follow up. Everyone followed everyone and you couldn't change that.”
Assertion Supported
Clubhouse founders built and killed precursor app Talkshow in six weeks
“We had this app called Talkshow, which was like a more formal precursor to Clubhouse. It was a bit more broadcast-y and you know, we built it in a few weeks. There were hints of magic to it, but we didn't believe that it was going to be durable. It didn't seem…”
Assertion Supported
OpenSea and Clubhouse Founders Both Originated From Pinterest
“Two out of three founders, OpenSea founder and Clubhouse founder all came from Pinterest, and a huge chunk of our team is actually now from Pinterest.”