why aren't all 23 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Katz: Very few open-source companies successfully defend their moats
“I think if you can maintain A competitive advantage with your cloud offering or your proprietary features that are very, very difficult to replicate, then you can maintain that moat. And I think very few open source companies get that right.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Katz: ClickHouse will surpass $1B in ARR before December 2027
“Well, I'd put the over under at December, 20, 27. And I would take the under.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bouaziz: ClickHouse can build an iconic business competing with AWS
“ClickHouse is led by Aaron Katz. He's a savage in every way. He's really, really good. You should probably talk to him. They are, I think they can build an iconic company that can properly compete with AWS.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Katz: ClickHouse extended its financing despite having $1B on its balance sheet
“And so we did a financing earlier this year, and then we extended it and brought in some strategic investors like yourself and David Sachs and Michael Dell and JP Morgan. We didn't need the capital. We had a billion dollars on the balance sheet.”
Disclosure
Katz: AI customers represent less than 12% of ClickHouse's revenue
“The basket of AI companies that's using us in nearly every AI companies built on ClickHouse from Harvey, Sierra, Decagon, Anthropic, OpenAI, et cetera, represents less than 12% of revenue.”
Assertion Supported
Katz: Anthropic chose ClickHouse after asking Claude for a recommendation
“If you ask Anthropic how they chose to use ClickHouse, they'll tell you they asked Claude, what technology should we use for this specific observability use case? And Claude suggested ClickHouse.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Katz: ClickHouse's Anthropic spend is up 100x this year
“Our anthropic spend is up a hundred times from what it was at the beginning of the year.”
Insight
Katz: Companies Should Not Manufacture Internal Adversity or Enemies
“I worry about creating adversity inside of a company. Well, you have so much adversity outside of your company, right? You've got to deal with competitors, disparaging yourself and the company. You've got to think about how you stay ahead of the competitive la…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Katz: ClickHouse powers Microsoft's largest analytical workloads
“Microsoft's one of our power users. We power the largest analytical workloads at Microsoft”
Assertion Partly supported
Katz: Tesla ingests one billion events per second into ClickHouse
“Tesla, for example, is ingesting a billion events per second into ClickHouse.”
Disclosure
Katz: ClickHouse raised at a $2B valuation with zero revenue
“The Series B that Cotu and Altimeter jointly led at two billion felt expensive. We had no revenue. We had no product. We had control of an open source database. We had no customers. We had 15 employees.”
Opinion
Swulinski: SaaS Lacks Out-of-the-Box Multi-Touch Attribution and Conversion Tracking Platforms
“For SaaS, Completely different world because you have to have an engineering team that builds this from scratch, right? When it comes to analytics, there's a DB, there's a BI layer. So maybe you're using click house and hex last click, you know, first click at…”
Disclosure
Katz: ClickHouse could go public next year if it wanted to
“We could take the company public next year if we wanted to.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Katz: Following Datadog's PLG playbook was easier than Snowflake's enterprise sales
“Datadog had this PLG self-service developer-led motion, so you could get started, deploy an agent, instrument your application, never talk to anybody in sales. Snowflake went heavy after the enterprise through, you know, very expensive sales and marketing. I j…”
Assertion Supported
Katz: Anthropic, OpenAI, and Weights & Biases all use ClickHouse
“It's the world's most popular open source database, and it satisfies a very broad Array of use cases, and it's used by nearly every AI native company, Anthropic, OpenAI, Weights and Biases.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Katz: ClickHouse Engineering Team Average Age Is Mid-to-Late Thirties
“The average age of our Engineering organization is in the mid to late thirties, which is a little bit different, I would imagine, than a typical venture backed company that's only had a product for three years.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Katz: Over half of ClickHouse revenue and customers are outside North America
“Over half of our revenue comes from outside of the US. 40% here in EMEA, 10% in Asia. Over half of our customers are outside of North America.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Katz: ClickHouse net dollar retention is over 200%
“You know, we had over 130% net dollar retention at previous companies. We're over 200% because these use cases expand.”
Disclosure
Casado: ClickHouse May Be The Only Data Streaming Breakout Since Confluent
“Click houses, Aaron Katz is doing phenomenal with, and I'm not an investor, but he's doing phenomenal, but that may be the one breakout since Confluent.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Katz: ClickHouse's midpoint customer spend is approximately $100K
“Average customer spend. I mean, we've got customers that spend tens of millions of dollars with us every year. We've got customers that spend thousands of dollars with us every month and everything in between. So averages can be a little bit misleading. If I w…”
Disclosure
Katz: ClickHouse has almost 800 employees, will reach 1,000 by year-end
“We're almost 800 employees. We'll be a thousand by the end of the year.”
Disclosure
Katz: ClickHouse generates over $100M with about 100 quota-carrying reps
“We've got about a hundred quota caring salespeople, for example, and I think, you know, our revenue scale is significantly more than a hundred million. And so our average rep productivity is quite high relative to the industry average.”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: ClickHouse originated as an in-house tool at Yandex
“ClickHouse is basically an in-house open source product built at Yandex, which is now Nibius, built in Russia.”