The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
O'Driscoll: AI labs will throttle subscriptions and hike prices for compute
“You're going to see some compute rationally, people are going to start allocating tokens to the highest, effectively the highest bidder. You're going to see a lot of throttling, like, you're going to see these plans, like, that's why they shot Sora. You're goi…”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 16, 2026 ▶ 54:11 SpaceX's Financials Leaked: Is it Worth $2TN | Meta Debuts Muse Spark: Are They Back in the AI Race? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Bolt Outsourced Its AI Agent to Claude and Fell to Third
“So even Bolt, which was the early leader, they're now just at number three, They don't even have an AI agent anymore. They've outsourced it to Claude.”
Jason Lemkin Nov 13, 2025 ▶ 27:45 Michael Burry Shorts NVIDIA and Palantir & Has Defensibility Died in a World of AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Katz: Anthropic chose ClickHouse after asking Claude for a recommendation
“If you ask Anthropic how they chose to use ClickHouse, they'll tell you they asked Claude, what technology should we use for this specific observability use case? And Claude suggested ClickHouse.”
Aaron Katz Aug 31, 2026 ▶ 16:34 ClickHouse CEO: AI Margins Need to Improve | Revenue Concentration Should be a Concern
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: WSJ data shows Claude enterprise share jumped to 48%
“The wall street journal today published the market shares in the enterprise for open AI, Claude, Gemini and Grok. Grok is a rounding error going to the prior conversation, right? It's not making any progress. But everything is so multimodal that it said Gemini…”
Jason Lemkin May 14, 2026 ▶ 15:14 Anthropic Buys Compute From Elon & Commits $200BN to Google | Cerebras IPO | Ramp Raises at $40BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Anthropic delayed Claude launch before ChatGPT over safety concerns
“In fact, they refused to release Claude before ChatGPT because he didn't think it was safe. They only released Claude under, under duress.”
Jason Lemkin Mar 5, 2026 ▶ 3:58 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | OpenAI's $110BN Mega Round | Cursor Hits $2BN in ARR · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Emberikos: Nearly all AI agents except Claude adopted OpenAI's agents.md standard
“Pretty much every agent except Claude uses agents.md, which is awesome.”
Alexander Emberikos Feb 21, 2026 ▶ 23:15 OpenAI's Codex Lead: Why Coding as We Know It is Over · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Green: Most regulated companies block access to Claude and ChatGPT
“Most big companies that are, like, financially regulated, you can't even go on to Claude or ChatGPT. Like, you can't even, like, get on the system to do work.”
Mitchell Green Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 19:51 Mitchell Green: Why 50% of VCs Should Not Exist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Mollick: Claude can design and iterate playable app prototypes in one prompt
“You could tell Claude come up with 30 ideas for a product to serve, you know, market X, then rate them all on quality and feasibility level. Then create, this is one prompt, by the way, then create a playable prototype of the interface for the application. The…”
Ethan Mollick Jul 31, 2024 ▶ 40:50 Ethan Mollick: Why OpenAl Abandons Products, The Biggest Opportunities They Have Not Taken | E1184 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Yamashita: Figma Make explicitly uses Anthropic's Claude AI model
“Today, like, if you take a screenshot of Figma Make, you see, like, oh, it's being powered by Claude, and it's like, okay, like, no questions. You know exactly where the code is being generated from.”
Yuhki Yamashita May 16, 2025 ▶ 30:05 20Product: Figma CPO on How Figma Builds Products: What Works, What Does Not | How Figma Does Testing and Product Reviews | The Future of Design, Engineering and Product with Yuhki Yamashita
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