why aren't all 52 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Nvidia Conceals Massive Chip Field Failure Rates to Keep Customers Waiting
“You don't talk about the field failure rate of your products, which are massive. Rather you sort of keep talking about the future in an effort to convince people to wait, to make a good decision rather than go with technology that's, that that's better and pre…”
Assertion Supported
Feldman: Nvidia Has Zero CUDA Software Lock-In for AI Inference
“In inference, it's not real at all. There's no CUDA lock-in in inference. None. Well, you can move from OpenAI on an NVIDIA GPU to Cerebrus to Fireworks Service on something else to Together to perplexity with 10 keystrokes. I mean, anybody who actually uses A…”
Assertion Partly supported
Feldman: Cerebras chips are faster than Nvidia at both training and inference
“No, we're faster on both, but the software challenges In training are real.”
Assertion Supported
Feldman: Cerebras Is First to Yield Whole Wafers in Computing History
“And that had never been done in a computer before, and that's at the heart of our architecture. That allowed us to yield and deliver whole wafers. Nobody had ever been able to do that in the seventy-year history of our industry.”
Assertion Partly supported
Feldman claims Cerebras chips are 15 times faster than competing GPUs
“Now, we are 15 x faster because of architectural reasons.”
Insight
Feldman claims NeoClouds face massive cost disadvantages buying Nvidia hardware
“When Google or when Cerebris puts our equipment in our own data center, right, we have a significant advantage Over a NeoCloud, because NeoClouds are buying hardware with gross margins of 70, 80% for NVIDIA.”
Assertion Contradicted
Feldman claims Cerebras is the only pure-play AI public company
“But what we did know was that we had a chance to be the first and only AI peer play in the entire market. There's only one, and that's us.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Nvidia-Groq Deal Is Marginally Net Positive for Cerebras
“My guess is marginally net positive, but kind of, it's like the real, it's one of those weird things where you ask, is it a positive or negative? The truth is there's a big embedded positive, the comp, and there's a big embedded negative, the musical chair pro…”
Disclosure
UAE Accounted for 75% to 80% of Cerebras' H1 2024 Revenue
“I think in the S-one it says and that was for maybe the first half of 24, we haven't published others, but a lot. I think 75, 80%.”
Insight
Feldman: Building something great requires every waking minute, not a 40-hour week
“This notion that, that somehow you can achieve greatness. You can build something extraordinary by working 38 hours a week and having work-life balance. That, that is mind-boggling to me. It's not true in any part of life. And your willingness to jump in and s…”
Disclosure
Feldman: Cerebras passed on a major China deal in 2019 before export controls
“We had a huge opportunity in, in 2019 to do a deal in China, and I decided to pass because I didn't think it was the right thing to do. Long before the Department of Commerce limited exports to China, I didn't think it was right.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Feldman: The tech industry is 100% underestimating the AI inference market size
“I think the reason I'm a hundred percent sure that, that we are underestimating the market is because of that premise.”
Disclosure
Feldman: Cerebras achieved higher valuation because rival chip startups had negative margins
“I think the reason we were able to raise it a higher valuation and from better investors and more money is because we had them. Right? And others who were out looking for mark, looking for money had negative margins.”
Insight
Feldman: Hardware startups require experience, unlike consumer tech
“It hasn't historically rewarded. 19 and 20 year olds. Where, where, where the market has rewarded extreme inexperience is where they look like the customer, right?”
Assertion Partly supported
Feldman: Cerebras Chip Yield Matches or Exceeds Traditional Smaller Chips
“In fact, we invented techniques that allow us to yield as well or better than others who are building much smaller jobs.”
Insight
Feldman: Nvidia customer delivery delays create major opening for competitors
“And so I think there is a real opportunity in the potential for NVIDIA Customer Unhappiness, for sure. For those of us who are competing with them. I mean, if you can't get your gear, you may as well test somebody else's. And that, that's a huge opening.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Mar 2025
Feldman: Cerebras inference has been the fastest platform since August 2024 launch
“And every day since August 26th when we launched Inference, our way has been the fastest way across a whole set of models tested by artificial analysis and others.”
Assertion Contradicted
Feldman: Cerebras deployed more exaflops than anyone except Nvidia and AMD
“We, we've deployed tens of exaflops of compute vastly more than anybody else that, that, that isn't AMD or NVIDIA, right?”
Disclosure
Feldman: Cerebras rejected China AI chip deal over ethical concerns
“And I asked myself that, and I came to believe that, that the deal on the table was, wouldn't be used for good, and I wasn't comfortable with that, and I wouldn't have been able to explain to my mother. And that's a moral compass, and I think that's, ah, ah.”
Disclosure
Feldman claims HBM memory shortages limit traditional GPUs but not Cerebras
“That is a limitation for all GPUs, but not us. We don't use it.”
Disclosure
Feldman says Cerebras avoids TSMC CoWoS supply bottlenecks by not using it
“We are advantaged by the fact that there are constraints on COOS at TSMC. We don't use COOS.”
Assertion Supported
Feldman reveals CFIUS delayed Cerebras' IPO by 18 months
“We tried to go public a year and a half earlier, and we couldn't get it done because we bumped into CFIUS.”
Assertion Partly supported
O'Driscoll: Benchmark, Foundation, and Eclipse each hold 8–9% of Cerebras
“Ah, you just, because you see, Harry, you just listen to Twitter, but if you go and you actually look up the S-one, they have eight or nine percent ownership, right? Because I do these things, because every VC reads an S-one the same way, you read the front pa…”
Insight
Lemkin: Real VC is early conviction, not brand-leveraged Series B entry
“This is the job of early stage investing is what foundation did. This is not using Mark Andreessen's brand to muscle into the B.”
Prediction Held up
O'Driscoll: Cerebras IPO will trade amazingly well in the short term
“Look, it's going to go great. The fact that they've raised the range, which you only do when you're highly confident, especially that much, that you've got a killer IPO on your hands. There's no more new information. It's going to go out and it's going to trad…”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Cerebras recently signed deals with OpenAI and AWS
“And in the last three months, they've signed a deal with OpenAI and a deal with Atropic. Sorry, no, a deal with OpenAI and a deal with AWS. Sorry, I should be precise, right?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Feldman: TSMC fab expansion speed bottlenecks global AI chip supply
“TSMC can't build fabs fast enough. I think the truth is, is that these are both for TSMC and Samsung. These fabs are the most amazing manufacturing plants on the planet. And, you know, these are 30,000,000,050 billion dollar factories. And the, their ability t…”
Assertion Supported
Cerebras Closed AI Chip Sector's Largest Raise at Highest Valuation
“Well, look, it was the largest raise ever done in, in our category. It was done at the highest valuation and with the premier investors.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2027
Feldman: Cerebras will land several G42-scale deals within 24 months
“That's a good question. Several.”
Assertion Supported
Feldman notes SRAM costs remain stable with no supply shortages
“We use SRAM, and there's no shortage of SRAM. The cost of SRAM hasn't changed.”
Assertion Supported
Feldman reveals Cerebras burned $8 million monthly for 18 months solving hardware
“We had an 18 month period where we were spending eight million a month and we couldn't build it. Yeah. Eight million a month. We were burning for 18 months and we couldn't solve the technical problems.”
Assertion Open
Feldman claims Cerebras Systems has created 800 millionaires among its employees
“What made me proud in this company so far is we've made 800 millionaires.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Feldman asserts vendors inflate prices tenfold for companies preparing for an IPO
“As you prepare to go public, the number of people who call you and try and sell you stuff is insane. Just suddenly developing a presentation, Which should cost 20,000 dollars is a 200,000 dollar project.”
Opinion
Lemkin: Foundation Capital did true VC work by incubating Cerebras
“For the first time in a long time, I was kind of jealous of foundation because they did the hard work. They, Steve and the team incubated this company.”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Cerebras generated $510M in 2025 revenue, up 76%
“Five hundred and ten million revenue in 2025, up 76% from two 90 and 24.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Bankers Will Use Groq's $20B Deal as Cerebras Valuation Comp
“So from the banker process of, you know, you use comps to justify value, now you've got the world's best comp. Right? And believe me, they'll be using it, right?”
Disclosure
Cerebras Burned $7M Monthly During 15-Month Period of Chip Failures
“We had a period of about 15 months. Between about 2017 and early 2019 where we couldn't make one. And we were running a burn of about six million a month, seven million a month. And we stayed with it and our board stayed with it.”
Disclosure
Cerebras making multi-year, multi-hundred-million-dollar supply chain and data center commitments
“We're making five and seven year investments in, in a data center capacity. We are making hundreds of millions now on term of billions of dollars of bets in supply chain.”
Prediction Held up
Feldman: Cerebras still intends to go public despite pre-IPO round
“We still have every intention of going public.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Feldman: Cerebras sales would default to NVIDIA without 10x superiority
“Every dollar we sell is a dollar that if we didn't work at it, if we didn't think, if we didn't invent, if we weren't 10 times better would default to NVIDIA.”
Assertion Supported
Ross: Cerebras recently decided not to go public
“Well, they recently decided not to go public.”
Disclosure
Feldman: Cerebras pays millions in software tools and $20M-$30M NRE per fab
“We pay millions of dollars a year in tools, selection of geometry, right? Which fab and having a relationship with a fab, you're going to pay 20 or thirty million in NRE.”
Assertion Partly supported
Feldman: Cerebras' deal with G42 was estimated at over $1 billion
“I mean, when we announced it was some estimated it was north of a billion.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Feldman: Cerebras tech will enable novel disease therapeutics within five years
“I think in three to five years, I would like our technology to have been used to solve two important societal problems. I would like it to be used to have found a therapeutic for, ah, an affliction that, that impacts more than a million people a year. I would …”
Prediction Held up
Feldman: Cerebras will be among the first AI hardware companies to go public
“We think that we will be among the first in the category.”
Insight
Feldman: AI's core matrix math calculations are trivial to design
“First, the underlying calculation is trivial. It's a matrix multiplication, and an FMAC can be developed by any second year electrical engineering student.”
Assertion Supported
Morin: Groq and Cerebras beat GPUs via on-chip data storage
“Actually, that's why Grok achieves, ah, not Grok, but Grok, Cerebras, and all these folks, they achieve very high performance single stream is because the data is right in the chip that doesn't have to get it from memory, which is slow, which GPU has to do.”
Assertion Contradicted
Feldman: Cerebras added five US data centers in 2025
“We added five this year in the US to add more data centers, and we have more big ideas.”