why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Conventional wisdom that commercial supersonic flight is economically unviable is false
“Six years ago, when we were starting Boom, the conventional wisdom was no one would pay enough to be able to fly supersonic, that it would have to be really That the sonic boom was an insurmountable barrier that would take decades of R&D to solve. And it turns…”
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Boom Supersonic Has Sold Zero Planes and Jet Turbines
“Well, they've sold zero of either. They've sold no planes and no jet turbines for AI power.”
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Boom crashed to $500M valuation before rising to $1.5B
“December, 20, 24, a year ago crashes down round, maybe five hundred million dollar valuation, but it might be worse when you think about the cram down and the effects. That's like not, that's a tough moment. AI, AI booms, and now you're back up to 1.5 billion.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
Boom Supersonic will take 10 to 15 years to carry commercial passengers
“Boom is a company that will probably be on the order of 10 to 15 years from founding to Carrying passengers in volume.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Boom's XB-1 prototype jet will fly and set records in 2021
“So that airplane will be finished this summer. They'll be flying and starting to set speed records next year.”
Disclosure
Individual VC partners personally backed Boom after their funds passed
“It was very typical that we would make it to the full partnership stage, and the fund would end up passing, although individual investors in that group would come in personally.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2025
Boom's Overture airliner will fly New York to London in three hours
“And so that airplane will carry 75 passengers at business class fares on flights that are half as long as they are today. So think, you know, New York to London and three hours instead of seven, you know, fast enough, you can go across the pond, get business d…”
Disclosure
Stripe co-founder John Collison was Boom Supersonic's very first investor
“It was John Collison, the co-founder of Stripe. And this was in the relatively early days of Stripe before it was the massive success that it was today. John was a pilot. I met him through a friend and we went out to dinner or talking about what we were doing …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Boom Supersonic rejects top technical talent lacking mission passion
“If you're not excited enough, we don't hire you because it's too hard, and if you're sane, you're gonna give up somewhere along the way.”
Insight
Senior aerospace leaders with startup fit are the hardest hires
“The hardest thing to hire for is big leadership roles that require aerospace background. And that is because the background is crucial for us to have. If you're going to go off and build Overture, which is probably one of the most complicated safety critical t…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Boom rejected early candidates who couldn't teach something in their interview
“And if you couldn't teach me something, you didn't get hired at Boom.”
Assertion Partly supported
Rory: Boom built a prototype aircraft with under 100 employees
“They got a prototype out for, you know, with less than a hundred headcounts.”
Disclosure
Boom's early capital came from high-net-worth individuals and personal VC checks
“A lot of our capital as the company was, particularly on the young side, has come from ultra high net worth individuals. Many cases, well-known VCs who are investing outside of their funds where they don't have those timing constraints.”