why aren't all 19 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Villig: VCs refused to invest in Bolt at $25M ARR
“We probably got to the point of doing about twenty-five million ARR, growing multiple hundred percent a year, and still no VCs wanted to invest.”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Bolt Outsourced Its AI Agent to Claude and Fell to Third
“So even Bolt, which was the early leader, they're now just at number three, They don't even have an AI agent anymore. They've outsourced it to Claude.”
Prediction Partly held up
Villig: AV developers like Waymo will not operate ride-hailing fleets long-term
“My view is that most of these companies Like Waymo over the longterm don't want to operate a car network. It's just too much hassle. So I think that these companies can build what they're fantastic at, which is building the software. And then there's going to …”
Assertion Supported
Bolt Scaled From Zero to $20M Revenue in Two Months
“We're seeing examples like Bolt, you know, which went zero to 20 in two months”
Assertion Supported
Markus Villig: Bolt has reached $2 billion in annual recurring revenue
“And then we went from that to now we have two billion ARR in sort of the next few years.”
Assertion Supported
Villig: Bolt raised $1.5B while competitors raised up to $30B
“There's about seven companies left. What they've been doing better than us is raising money. They've just all raised multitudes of how much we have raised. Many of them have raised five billion. Some of them have raised 15, even thirty billion. Well, we have r…”
Assertion Partly supported
Villig: Johannesburg became over half of Bolt's business in six months
“In six months, Johannesburg went from being zero to being more than half the business just from scratch. With one local student running the whole operation.”
Assertion Contradicted
Villig: Bolt is Europe's largest micromobility operator by fleet size
“We became overnight from being, having almost no presence in that sector to becoming the largest micro-mobile to operate in Europe. Still to this day, nobody operates with such a big fleet in so many cities.”
Prediction Held up
Villig: Bolt plans to launch dining scan-to-pay payments next
“So the one I'm currently bullish about is dining payments. So in many parts of Europe and the world, it's actually not a common thing that you can scan the QR code, you see the menu, you can order and pay from that. And you can integrate it with everything els…”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Cursor, Bolt, and Windsurf struggled for years before exploding
“I mean, I know Cursor almost died, right? Bolt almost died, right? And then finally it hit for Cursor. I don't know the whole story of Windsurf. Even Windsurf was Codium before it, right? It wasn't even the same, like everyone talks about Windsurf. 90 days ago…”
Assertion Partly supported
Bolt reached thousands of daily trips in year one on $5,000 capital
“We bootstrapped the company completely for about the first year. So we built the product, we got to some thousands of daily trips and we did all of that with 5000 bucks for my parents.”
Assertion Supported
Daimler invested over 100 million dollars in Bolt at 1B valuation
“So then we managed to convince them that they invested more than a hundred million at the billion dollar valuation. So it went in a year from being an acquisition to being an investment.”
Assertion Supported
Bolt defined ride-hailing category in Poland, Czechia, and Baltics
“In Poland or in Czech or in the Baltics, we were the ones who defined the category and the regulators were then coming to us and were asking us for input.”
Assertion Partly supported
Villig: Bolt grew from zero to $100M ARR in under five years
“We went from zero to two million ARR in about 18 months, and then from there we went to about ten million ARR in the next 18 months, and then we went from that to a hundred million ARR in less than two years.”
Assertion Supported
Bolt scaled to €10M ARR on a €1M seed round
“So we raised about one million of an annual of the first seed fund, and then we built the company to ten million ARR with that.”
Assertion Supported
Bolt lost 85% of its $200M revenue within four weeks during COVID
“So COVID hit, and in four weeks we went from just massive, like, about two hundred million of revenues to losing 85% of that.”
Assertion Partly supported
Villig: Bolt raised $1M bridge round from non-tech local businesses
“So, so we cobbled together half a million from this real estate company. Similarly, a couple of 100,000 from a local railway operator couple of 100,000 from a local telecoms guy. So it was just this tiny, all together, maybe one million bucks.”
Assertion Supported
Bolt fully recovered its lost COVID revenue within five or six months
“It actually happened very quickly. It was probably five or six months before we were fully back. And then we already started hitting new records after that.”
Assertion Supported
Bolt operates in ~50 countries and leads in over 20
“Today we operate in about 50 countries around the world and Bolt is the number one most popular platform in more than 20 of them.”