why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Facebook Will Launch a Crypto Coin and Become Bitcoin's Main Competitor
“Now, I will say also that on crypto, I think that there's a high probability that the company that will really succeed in crypto will be Facebook, and the reason is that for them to launch their own coin and for them to distribute that coin and allow developer…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Hoffman predicts Bitcoin will approach $200,000 by the end of 2025
“I would say end of 25, so I'm approaching 200,000.”
Prediction Held up
Startup fundraising will shift to crypto tokens within 10 years
“I actually think in 10 years, some of the craziness will level out. And maybe it's not on Bitcoin, but maybe it's on another token or so, that you will see fundraisers done differently in 10 years.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Maples: Bitcoin will reach $130,000 by the end of 2025
“I'm gonna guess that it gets to a 130.”
Assertion Supported
Carney: Bitcoin acts as an amplifier of market risk, not a hedge
“What we've seen to some extent with Bitcoin, and it's too short a time series to be definitive about this, is that in some respects been an amplifier of overall risk appetite, certainly over the course of the last”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Currier in 2017: Bitcoin will exceed $4,000 by December 2018
“It will be above.”
Prediction Partly held up
Lee: ICO crash will trigger capital flight to Bitcoin and Litecoin
“I think there will be a slight to quality. So people would Sell their tokens for Ether, and potentially sell their Ether for Bitcoin. So, it would crash a lot of the ICO tokens, a lot of the altcoins, but I think it would be good for the stronger currencies ou…”
Prediction Held up
Jones predicts Bitcoin's price will exceed $4,000 by August 2018
“I'm confident it will be above.”
Prediction Held up
ICOs and token marketplaces will not replace traditional venture capital firms
“When we talk about disruption, I'm very skeptical that where we're going to be in 10 years is, you know, everything is initial coin offerings, and there's no VCs, and, you know, there's just sort of marketplaces like AngelList and Bitcoin, right? Like, I don't…”
Assertion Supported
Ripley: Bitcoin Volatility Trends Upward Long-Term Unlike Depreciating Fiat
“First I'll point out that it's a lot of volatility up and to the right across the, you know, the history of the, you know, of Bitcoin. And it, it's not a lot of volatility and down and to the right as you know, most fiat currencies perform.”
Prediction Held up
Bitcoin's Strong Network Effects Put It on Pace to Lead Crypto
“I am what most people call a Bitcoin maximalist, so I think that Bitcoin, because it has such strong network effects already, it's definitely on Pace to be the leader.”
Prediction Held up
Galston predicts in 2015 that Bitcoin will succeed long-term
“I love Bitcoin. I've spent a lot of time looking into it. You know, I'll take Ben Horowitz's side of the Felix Salmon bet. I think it'll fly long term.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chris Dark: Blockchain will fundamentally solve the $500B global remittance industry
“Whether it's Bitcoin or Stellar or whatever that, that, that will fundamentally change remittance around the world, and that's a half a trillion dollar industry or so. So that alone, it absolutely will solve.”
Assertion Partly supported
Reses: Dorsey Locked Himself in Square's Office to Build Bitcoin Integration
“I remember in 2017, maybe, yeah, it was end of 20 16 when Jack wanted to put Bitcoin into Cash App. And he, ah, two engineers sat, ah, on the sixth floor of 14 55 market and wouldn't leave the office until they were able to build that product.”
Assertion Supported
Lee: Litecoin has four times the block space of Bitcoin
“It has four times the block space. So right now it scales better than Bitcoin and transactions are faster.”
Assertion Supported
Draper: Bitcoin cuts cross-border transfer costs by two-thirds
“Border to border transfer of money. It can be a third the cost and one fifth the time of sending money today with this new technology, which is really, really exciting.”
Assertion Partly supported
Tim Draper: Bitcoin makes cross-border transfers almost free compared to fiat
“People, people spend 10 to 20% of their money just Moving it across. And if you use Bitcoin, it's almost free.”
Assertion Supported
Lee: Litecoin activated SegWit months ahead of Bitcoin in 2017
“So, for example, Litecoin was able to activate SegWit back in April, May of this year, whereas it took to August before Bitcoin activated SegWit.”