The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Facebook Will Launch a Crypto Coin and Become Bitcoin's Main Competitor
“Now, I will say also that on crypto, I think that there's a high probability that the company that will really succeed in crypto will be Facebook, and the reason is that for them to launch their own coin and for them to distribute that coin and allow developer…”
Darian Shirazi Apr 6, 2018 ▶ 24:52 20VC: Why Facebook Will Be The Company To Succeed in Crypto, Why Founders Should Be Actively Angel Investing & Commonalities of Great Leadership From Mark Zuckerberg to Mark Pincus with Darian Shirazi, Founder & CEO @ Radius
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Hoffman predicts Bitcoin will approach $200,000 by the end of 2025
“I would say end of 25, so I'm approaching 200,000.”
Reid Hoffman Dec 16, 2024 ▶ 59:11 Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn & Paypal Founder: Trump Administration, Elon Musk and DOGE | E1239 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Startup fundraising will shift to crypto tokens within 10 years
“I actually think in 10 years, some of the craziness will level out. And maybe it's not on Bitcoin, but maybe it's on another token or so, that you will see fundraisers done differently in 10 years.”
Elizabeth Yin Nov 15, 2017 ▶ 21:40 20VC: Why VCs Fundamentally Assess Founders The Wrong Way, Why VC Needs To Innovate On The Scouting Model & Why SAFE's and Convertible Notes Are The Future Of Investing with Elizabeth Yin, Founder & General Partner @ Hustle Fund
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Maples: Bitcoin will reach $130,000 by the end of 2025
“I'm gonna guess that it gets to a 130.”
Mike Maples Jan 6, 2025 ▶ 1:01:13 Mike Maples: Three Frameworks to Evaluate Startups and Founders | E1242 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Carney: Bitcoin acts as an amplifier of market risk, not a hedge
“What we've seen to some extent with Bitcoin, and it's too short a time series to be definitive about this, is that in some respects been an amplifier of overall risk appetite, certainly over the course of the last”
Mark Carney Jan 10, 2022 ▶ 12:41 20VC: Former Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney on Why "Only the Niche Will Survive" in Crypto, How Governments and Central Banks Retain Control in a World of Decentralised Finance & The Winners and Losers in Crypto Exchanges and NFTs
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Currier in 2017: Bitcoin will exceed $4,000 by December 2018
“It will be above.”
James Currier Dec 13, 2017 ▶ 26:36 20VC: How To Balance Between Vision and Stubbornness, Why Speed Is The Most Important Startup Superpower & The Main Role of A Startup Founder Today with James Currier, Managing Director @ NFX
Prediction Partly held up
Lee: ICO crash will trigger capital flight to Bitcoin and Litecoin
“I think there will be a slight to quality. So people would Sell their tokens for Ether, and potentially sell their Ether for Bitcoin. So, it would crash a lot of the ICO tokens, a lot of the altcoins, but I think it would be good for the stronger currencies ou…”
Charlie Lee Sep 15, 2017 ▶ 17:27 20VC: Litecoin Founder, Charlie Lee on Why ICO's Are The Biggest Threat To Crypto, Why Ethereum Will Run Into Huge Scalability Problems & How To Assess The Trade Off Between Decentralisation & Scale
Prediction Held up
Jones predicts Bitcoin's price will exceed $4,000 by August 2018
“I'm confident it will be above.”
Mike Jones Aug 28, 2017 ▶ 25:28 20VC: The First ICO Blockchain Incubator Ever, Why ICO's Will Change The World of Venture As We Know It & How The M&A Market Will Respond To ICO's with Mike, Jones, Co-Founder @ Science Inc
Prediction Held up
ICOs and token marketplaces will not replace traditional venture capital firms
“When we talk about disruption, I'm very skeptical that where we're going to be in 10 years is, you know, everything is initial coin offerings, and there's no VCs, and, you know, there's just sort of marketplaces like AngelList and Bitcoin, right? Like, I don't…”
Parker Thompson Dec 21, 2016 ▶ 22:51 20VC: AngelList's Parker Thompson on How He Evaluates Startup Founders & Why The Move To Series A Is Harder Than Ever?
Assertion Supported
Ripley: Bitcoin Volatility Trends Upward Long-Term Unlike Depreciating Fiat
“First I'll point out that it's a lot of volatility up and to the right across the, you know, the history of the, you know, of Bitcoin. And it, it's not a lot of volatility and down and to the right as you know, most fiat currencies perform.”
Dave Ripley Jan 26, 2024 ▶ 19:13 Dave Ripley: Are the SEC Overreaching with its Approach to Crypto? Should Gensler Step Down? | E1108 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Bitcoin's Strong Network Effects Put It on Pace to Lead Crypto
“I am what most people call a Bitcoin maximalist, so I think that Bitcoin, because it has such strong network effects already, it's definitely on Pace to be the leader.”
Darian Shirazi Apr 6, 2018 ▶ 23:34 20VC: Why Facebook Will Be The Company To Succeed in Crypto, Why Founders Should Be Actively Angel Investing & Commonalities of Great Leadership From Mark Zuckerberg to Mark Pincus with Darian Shirazi, Founder & CEO @ Radius
Prediction Held up
Galston predicts in 2015 that Bitcoin will succeed long-term
“I love Bitcoin. I've spent a lot of time looking into it. You know, I'll take Ben Horowitz's side of the Felix Salmon bet. I think it'll fly long term.”
Ezra Galston Aug 17, 2015 ▶ 21:56 20 VC 063: What It Takes To Standout In A Crowded Market with Ezra Galston @ Chicago Ventures
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chris Dark: Blockchain will fundamentally solve the $500B global remittance industry
“Whether it's Bitcoin or Stellar or whatever that, that, that will fundamentally change remittance around the world, and that's a half a trillion dollar industry or so. So that alone, it absolutely will solve.”
Chris Dark May 4, 2015 ▶ 22:30 20 VC 033: The Pros and Cons of Venture Capital, Atomico and Entrepreneurship with Chris Dark, President International @ C2FO
Assertion Partly supported
Reses: Dorsey Locked Himself in Square's Office to Build Bitcoin Integration
“I remember in 2017, maybe, yeah, it was end of 20 16 when Jack wanted to put Bitcoin into Cash App. And he, ah, two engineers sat, ah, on the sixth floor of 14 55 market and wouldn't leave the office until they were able to build that product.”
Jackie Reses Mar 31, 2023 ▶ 59:13 Jackie Reses: The Most Powerful Woman in Finance; Making $50BN for Yahoo on Alibaba | E996 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Lee: Litecoin has four times the block space of Bitcoin
“It has four times the block space. So right now it scales better than Bitcoin and transactions are faster.”
Charlie Lee Sep 15, 2017 ▶ 4:29 20VC: Litecoin Founder, Charlie Lee on Why ICO's Are The Biggest Threat To Crypto, Why Ethereum Will Run Into Huge Scalability Problems & How To Assess The Trade Off Between Decentralisation & Scale
Assertion Supported
Draper: Bitcoin cuts cross-border transfer costs by two-thirds
“Border to border transfer of money. It can be a third the cost and one fifth the time of sending money today with this new technology, which is really, really exciting.”
Adam Draper Feb 24, 2016 ▶ 12:02 20VC: Investing In The Next Frontiers Of Tech & Harry Potter with Adam Draper, Founder & CEO @ Boost VC
Assertion Partly supported
Tim Draper: Bitcoin makes cross-border transfers almost free compared to fiat
“People, people spend 10 to 20% of their money just Moving it across. And if you use Bitcoin, it's almost free.”
Tim Draper Feb 22, 2016 ▶ 16:44 20VC: Tim Draper on Investing In Tesla, The Best Pitch He Has Ever Seen & The Evolution of Venture and Startups
Assertion Supported
Lee: Litecoin activated SegWit months ahead of Bitcoin in 2017
“So, for example, Litecoin was able to activate SegWit back in April, May of this year, whereas it took to August before Bitcoin activated SegWit.”
Charlie Lee Sep 15, 2017 ▶ 10:52 20VC: Litecoin Founder, Charlie Lee on Why ICO's Are The Biggest Threat To Crypto, Why Ethereum Will Run Into Huge Scalability Problems & How To Assess The Trade Off Between Decentralisation & Scale
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