why aren't all 86 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Levie: Crypto networks plateau because late entrants get diminishing upside
“At some point in a crypto network so far, at least what we've seen, maybe other than Bitcoin and Ethereum and a few others, is you see a plateau where once you have that asset reach a certain value, future participants don't perceive as much upside as the earl…”
Prediction Held up
Bitcoin's Strong Network Effects Put It on Pace to Lead Crypto
“I am what most people call a Bitcoin maximalist, so I think that Bitcoin, because it has such strong network effects already, it's definitely on Pace to be the leader.”
Opinion
Hutchins: Crypto in 2018 is a speculative investment, not a retirement plan
“I feel like I'm seeing too many people spend too much time on it right now, and I kind of see it as more of a speculative investment for most people at this point, not a guaranteed way to plan your retirement.”
Opinion
Carlson-Wee: Ethereum is the most important protocol since Bitcoin
“So for example, if you look at Vitalik Buterin, the creator of Ethereum, he was 19 and a Russian Canadian who really didn't have ties to traditional venture networks. And Created what is pretty much inarguably the most important protocol since Bitcoin.”
Insight
Lee: Bitcoin needs consumer-friendly usability over self-custody to succeed
“I think that for Bitcoin to succeed, it has to be easy to use, right? You can't expect everyone to be able to store their own Bitcoins in their own computer or paper wallet and be able to secure it.”
Opinion
Armstrong: Scaling YouTube or Twitter was harder than scaling Bitcoin or Ethereum
“I don't think, like, Bitcoin or Ethereum is on the order of magnitude of that heart of a problem. Like, I think scaling YouTube was probably way harder, or scaling Twitter or something like that was probably way harder than the kind of things we need to do to …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levchin: Bitcoin will create value, simplification, and efficiency in finance
“Bitcoin is kind of one on the very outer edges of stuff That will create some really interesting value and simplification and efficiency”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kevin Rose refuses to invest in cryptocurrencies that merely tweak Bitcoin
“I'm not going to buy into a cryptocurrency that is just a somewhat slightly version or somewhat slightly tweaked version of Bitcoin. It has to be something that is truly novel and unique”
Prediction Held up
Galston predicts in 2015 that Bitcoin will succeed long-term
“I love Bitcoin. I've spent a lot of time looking into it. You know, I'll take Ben Horowitz's side of the Felix Salmon bet. I think it'll fly long term.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bitcoin will succeed, but adoption will take longer than expected
“Fly, but it's going to take a lot longer than people think.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chris Dark: Blockchain will fundamentally solve the $500B global remittance industry
“Whether it's Bitcoin or Stellar or whatever that, that, that will fundamentally change remittance around the world, and that's a half a trillion dollar industry or so. So that alone, it absolutely will solve.”
Disclosure
Chris Dark: Bitcoin is irrelevant compared to the underlying blockchain technology
“I'm very long Bitcoin, so I have a bunch of Bitcoins, and not because I trade them or anything, it's just like, well, if the, look, the Bitcoin's irrelevant, right? What matters is the blockchain”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
John Henderson predicted in 2015 that blockchain would disrupt the financial industry
“So I'm hugely bullish on Bitcoin. I think, though, in the short term, there will be ups and downs and, you know, maybe a few more scandals. Long term, though, I think the blockchain or, you know, this ledger, public ledger technology will be fundamentally disr…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Blockchain is a game changer, but Bitcoin faces a difficult future
“The future of blockchain is big. The future of Bitcoin is difficult, but I would separate it. So I think blockchain is really a game changer, and Bitcoin just a small part of the whole blockchain development.”
Disclosure
Hartz names Airbnb, Pinterest, and Bitcoin as his top investment drivers
“Airbnb, Pinterest Bitcoin.”
Disclosure
Tomaino: 1confirmation prefers uncredentialed, deep crypto-native founders over Silicon Valley resumes
“How we view talent is like, we'd rather give money to, you know, a founder that doesn't maybe look good on paper, doesn't have credentials, but has been studying crypto deeply since 2013 when they brought their first Bitcoin or something like that.”
Disclosure
Tomaino lost his entire $50K net worth in a phishing attack
“I got an email saying that Coinbase updated terms of service. I clicked the link to try to update the service, log into Coinbase to do so, logged into Coinbase with my password, boom the hacker Got into my account and drained all my Bitcoin. So it wasn't a ton…”
Assertion Partly supported
Reses: Dorsey Locked Himself in Square's Office to Build Bitcoin Integration
“I remember in 2017, maybe, yeah, it was end of 20 16 when Jack wanted to put Bitcoin into Cash App. And he, ah, two engineers sat, ah, on the sixth floor of 14 55 market and wouldn't leave the office until they were able to build that product.”
Disclosure
Geoff Lewis: Bedrock invested in Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2019
“We did Bitcoin and Ethereum shortly after launching our first fund in 2019.”
Insight
Xie: Bitcoin lacks full fungibility due to transaction history tracking
“When you have some coins, like let's say in Bitcoin, where it has a history of tainted transactions, meaning that it was used for maybe some illicit purposes, it might not get accepted on some exchanges, or certain merchants or people might not accept it, beca…”
Disclosure
Darian Shirazi Was Mining Bitcoin With a High School Friend in 2011
“My best friend from high school and I were mining Bitcoin in 2011”
Insight
Lee: Cryptocurrency Miners Care Only About Profit, Not Loyalty
“Most miners, all they care about is making money. So, and that's fine, and that's how Bitcoin works. If all they care about making money, then they don't, they have no loyalty to any particular cryptocurrency.”
Insight
Lee: Whole-coin misconception led retail investors to buy Litecoin over Bitcoin
“Biggest misconception, I guess it would be that people would think, You have to buy one whole Bitcoin or one whole Litecoin. People then realize you can actually buy, like, a small portion of a Bitcoin. I guess that helped Litecoin in some sense, where people …”
Assertion Supported
Lee: Litecoin has four times the block space of Bitcoin
“It has four times the block space. So right now it scales better than Bitcoin and transactions are faster.”
Disclosure
Jones: Core crypto developer discourse occurs in hard-to-find private Telegram groups
“I'm very engaged on Telegram, and there's a ton of very hard-to-find groups where the miners and the core blockchain developers and Bitcoin enthusiasts share ideas. I spent a lot of time in those Telegram groups.”
Disclosure
Maven Ventures passed on Bitcoin because the asset class didn't speak to them
“We're not an investor in Bitcoin and, you know, money works. It could be better. Yeah. We'll see. I mean, I, I'm not a in super opposition to a Bitcoin, but it didn't speak to us.”
Disclosure
Adam Draper: Boost VC portfolio company Joystream merges BitTorrent with Bitcoin
“We have one company in this tribe that's called joy stream run by a solo founder who is trying to merge two technologies that have never been merged before, which is the peer to peer technology of BitTorrent with the peer to peer technology of Bitcoin. So basi…”
Assertion Supported
Draper: Bitcoin cuts cross-border transfer costs by two-thirds
“Border to border transfer of money. It can be a third the cost and one fifth the time of sending money today with this new technology, which is really, really exciting.”
Assertion Partly supported
Tim Draper: Bitcoin makes cross-border transfers almost free compared to fiat
“People, people spend 10 to 20% of their money just Moving it across. And if you use Bitcoin, it's almost free.”
Opinion
Zuckerberg: Bullish on blockchain smart contracts over bitcoin speculation
“Yes. I really like smart contracts. I think those based on the blockchain, or using the blockchain, I think that. That's really promising.”
Disclosure
Green: Lead Edge Capital passed on Chainalysis, Coinbase, and early Bitcoin
“We've looked at stuff around the like we looked at chain analysis years and years ago, probably should have done it. Like the picks and shovels type stuff. Look, should have done Coinbase, like, years and years ago. By the way, I should have bought Bitcoin, to…”
Disclosure
Alexis Ohanian regrets selling Bitcoin early to pay for his wedding
“I actually, the bigger mistake was I had a bunch of Bitcoin that I sold to pay for. I mean, it wasn't that bad. I sold it for like, you know, a wedding and an engagement ring and all that stuff.”
Disclosure
Tomaino emptied his bank account to buy Bitcoin while at Coinbase
“I had all my money in Bitcoin on Coinbase, right? And that's how much I believed. Like I basically you know, emptied my bank account put it all in, in Bitcoin.”
Disclosure
Shalek: Ribbit Capital made early non-consensus bets on Bitcoin and Coinbase
“Like how it felt when we first invested in Bitcoin and Coinbase. And most people just had no idea what we're talking about.”
Assertion Supported
Lee: Litecoin activated SegWit months ahead of Bitcoin in 2017
“So, for example, Litecoin was able to activate SegWit back in April, May of this year, whereas it took to August before Bitcoin activated SegWit.”
Disclosure
Guillaume Moubeche discloses heavy Bitcoin accumulation over the past three years
“Yes. A lot. I've been buying bitcoins for the last three years, like heavily.”
Disclosure
Hutchins takes minimal salary and relies on savings to build Grove
“Yeah, I would say relative to Silicon Valley, I probably have a low risk Risk tolerance. I'm not entirely investing my life savings in Bitcoin. I'm not a rabid angel investor. I think compared to the rest of the world, I'm probably pretty high risk tolerance i…”
Disclosure
Carlson-Wee: Bitcoin was the first asset I ever purchased
“The first investment I made in my entire life was Bitcoin. I had never purchased a stock, a bond, I'd never made an angel investment or anything like that.”