The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Stebbings: I avoid reserves after losing money on Hopin, Clubhouse, BeReal
“I do not do reserves, and I don't because I was in Hopin, I was in Clubhouse, I was in Be Real, all lost money, and then I've got a load of companies which were much slower In enterprise and a phenomenal investments.”
Tavel: BeReal failed because it couldn't compete with short-form video dopamine
“What happened with Be Real in my estimation is that they did capture that why now of the authenticity But they could never earn the right to enough minutes for a consumer because the consumer was then having, you know, the dopamine hits of, you know, the most …”
Stebbings: Reserving capital would have caused bad investments in Hopin and Clubhouse
“If I had done reserves, I would have put money into Hopin, Clubhouse, and be real. That would not have been a good set of events.”
BeReal Has Struggled to Expand Beyond Initial Viral Attention
“I think it's a really powerful mechanic. I think it's it was an amazing moment. I think it was, like, incredibly culturally relevant. I think when that, when you have that explosive growth like that, that you just focus a hundred percent on just keeping the li…”
Mignano: Social graphs are commoditized and inefficient for content distribution
“The social graph, as I said, is completely commoditized. Now, every social product that comes out can instantly have a social graph just by ingesting your contacts list, right? So you and I meet on the street somewhere. You say, Hey, Mike, what's your phone nu…”
BeReal Lost Momentum by Forcing Daily Activity Without Feedback Loops
“Be Real didn't have the feedback loop. It required people to do something every day, and people don't want to have to do something every single day, and I think as soon as you lose that, you lose momentum very quickly.”
Stebbings: Hopin, BeReal, and Clubhouse failed to be 20VC's top returners
“With my first fund, after 18 months, I predicted my top five fund returners, and you had your hop-ins, you had your B-reels, you had your clubhouse, and none of the five outperformers ended up being the outperformers, and the five outperformers I always had in…”
Stebbings: I should have sold secondary positions in Clubhouse, Hopin, and BeReal
“Truth be told, honestly, Nick, I've been in some rockets that then turned out to not be rockets. Your clubhouse to your hop in to your be real. And they are portfolios with assets in, whether you like it or not in terms of naming. And I should have been much m…”
Stebbings regrets passing up secondary sales in BeReal, Hopin, and Clubhouse
“My biggest mistakes in the last few years, honestly, Kevin, were be real, hop in, a clubhouse. I could have sold in all of them, and I didn't.”
Stebbings: BeReal ruined its momentum by failing to incorporate video features
“Be Real was a fantastic product innovation. That just fucked it with not doing enough video.”
Mignano: BeReal's format is too easily copied by Meta's Instagram
“Yes, a hundred percent. I think it is a worry. And admittedly, I think it is a worry for B-Real. I think B-Real is a great product. The reality is I don't think their format is, is, is something that Instagram can't copy easily, right? It is a photo at a speci…”