The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2025
Stebbings: Benchmark AI portfolio companies HeyGen, Sierra, and Fireworks hit $100M+ ARR
“McCaw over a hundred million in ARR. Hey Jen hitting a hundred million in ARR. Fireworks a hundred and forty million in ARR. Sierra with Brett Taylor over a hundred million in ARR.”
Harry Stebbings Jul 31, 2025 ▶ 5:24 Why Apple Needs a Management Overhaul & Why Google is Catching Up with Hyperscalers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2035
Lazarte: Ten trillion-dollar companies will be created in the next decade
“There's going to be 10 trillion dollar companies created in the next decade.”
Victor Lazarte Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 1:03:05 Benchmark GP, Victor Lazarte: The 3 Traits All the Best Founders Have · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2096
Fenton: Benchmark Won't Exist in 50 to 75 Years
“Benchmark won't be around in 50 to 75 years, nor will most of the companies we work with”
Peter Fenton Mar 29, 2021 ▶ 29:33 20VC: Benchmark's Peter Fenton on The Single Question That Defines The Art of Early Stage Venture, Marketing Timing Risk, Why The Oversupply of Capital Is Good & His Biggest Lessons from 12 Years On The New Relic Board
Assertion Open
O'Driscoll: Historically, a16z captured 10% of top VC outcomes, Benchmark 6%
“In a less competitive time, the best firm in terms of percentage of total outcomes was Andreessen. They got 10% of the good outcomes. Benchmark got six, and everyone else bunches in the two, three, four, five percent rate, right? In other words, when there was…”
Rory O'Driscoll May 8, 2025 ▶ 26:42 Benchmark vs a16z: Why Stage Specific Firms Win · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2032
Belsky: I cannot see myself being a traditional VC long-term
“Also realized pretty quickly that I could not see myself being a traditional VC for the next 10 to 15 years.”
Scott Belsky Feb 27, 2017 ▶ 3:24 20VC: Benchmark's Scott Belsky on What Makes Truly The Best VCs? Why Entrepreneurs Must Focus on 'The First Mile' & The Key Ingredients To The Perfect Onboarding Process
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