The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Frontier AI Task Automation Rose From 1% to 40% in 12 Months
“On Apex, the Frontier model right now is at about 40%, and 12 months ago the Frontier model was a one, which was scoring one percent.”
Brendan Foody Jun 1, 2026 ▶ 12:30 Mercor CEO: Why Application Layer Companies Have No Moat & The Cost of Hiring AI Researchers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Chalfen: Mid-level VC investors prioritize career management over fund returns
“If you're a mid-level person, if you were a mid-level person at Apex, you would do the right thing in order to look good, further your career rather than optimize returns.”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 3:24 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Chalfen discloses being fired by Apax Partners after dot-com bust
“And you know, I got divorced, and then dumped, like Apex fired me.”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 38:36 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Chalfen: Recommended passing on investment in Mark Suster during dot-com crash
“And we said, no, and that was my recommendation was not to put A dollar in.”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 47:17 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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