Mike Chalfen

Solo GP, Chalfen Ventures · 1 appearance on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

Mike Chalfen is a solo GP at Chalfen Ventures who invests in early-stage technology companies. His portfolio includes investments in King.com, Houzz, Tipalti, Snyk, and Tray.io.

25statements → 3claims → 3claims resolved → 33%fully supported → 4.08/5average certainty → 2.52/5average debate potential → 4.4/5argument clarity · the sources → 5said about them ↓

1 supported 1 partly supported 1 contradicted how the 3 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

1 prediction · 2 assertions · 5 opinions · 11 insights · 6 disclosures · every statement was checked. The prediction and assertions are the 3 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 3 are resolved. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Mike argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Prediction Held up
Chalfen: Macroeconomic headwinds will persist for a couple of years
“It looks like there's going to be economic headwinds for a couple of years, and in 2000, it was really a sort of our corner of the market was suffering, but the wider world didn't suffer in quite the same way.”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 13:22 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Their most notable contradicted claim

Assertion Contradicted
Chalfen: Only three VC firms existed in London in 1996
“There were only three firms in London that did VC.”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 2:07 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
100% certainty 3
25% certainty 4
none yet certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

Argument clarity: do they answer the question? how? →

4.4 / 5 directness 4.6 · coherence 4.6 · precision 4.1 · compression 3.9

redirected or did not address 3 of 44 assessed questions (7%). Watch them ▸

This is a score against a rubric. It is not a rank. Every host question → answer exchange is scored with names hidden on directness, coherence, precision and compression, 1–5 each, on meaning alone: disfluencies are ignored, and only raw unedited episodes count. This is the score that measures thought. Every scored exchange, scores shown → · The rubric and its checks →

How they sound: speaking style how? →

268 words/min while actually speaking · 15.3 um and uh per 1k words · 17.3 false starts per 1k · 39.9% of pauses land inside a clause

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 10,382 words across 1 episode of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

Everything Mike Chalfen said on 20VC that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Opinion
Chalfen: Formal boards at the seed stage are net negative
“So my view is that at seed stage, a board is of limited value. The most value is weekly, bi-weekly spending time with teams, helping them solve problems quickly so that they're not waiting for the board in order to say, by the way, I've got this problem. And t…”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 1:02:15 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Mike Chalfen: VC board seats should have a three-year limit
“Like, what drives me mad is everyone's accruing the right to be on the boards round by round. One or two board members get added. There should be a statute of limitations. But after three years, you no longer have the right to be on the board. Boom. And then i…”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 1:08:00 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Chalfen: Anti-Fragile VC Portfolios Diversify Risk Types, Not Company Count
“I think what's important to me is that you sort of have a reasonably sort of anti-fragile portfolio construction, not by virtue of having 30 or 20 or whatever number of investments, but by virtue of having different kinds of risks. That you're taking with your…”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 27:28 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Chalfen: Mid-level VC investors prioritize career management over fund returns
“If you're a mid-level person, if you were a mid-level person at Apex, you would do the right thing in order to look good, further your career rather than optimize returns.”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 3:24 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Chalfen: Most Venture Capitalists Are Bad at Building Firms
“And actually I think a lot of VCs are not good at building firms.”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 9:20 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Chalfen: Products VCs Personally Want Address Markets That Are Too Small
“But I learned early in my career that any business opportunity where I or my partners thought was a very good service that they would definitely use, that was almost certainly addressing way too small a market opportunity, right?”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 22:01 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Mike Chalfen requires 10x return potential for follow-on venture investments
“You've got to believe that the new money is tenx money. I do. That's how I think of it.”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 32:52 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Chalfen discloses being fired by Apax Partners after dot-com bust
“And you know, I got divorced, and then dumped, like Apex fired me.”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 38:36 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Chalfen: Venture capitalists without personal adversity worry me
“What worries me in the venture business to a degree is people for whom nothing's ever really gone wrong. And life's been pretty easy.”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 39:05 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Chalfen: VC market overfunded startups as scale-ready from 2020 to 2022
“And that's a way that the whole market, in my opinion, the last two years has overfunded businesses as if they're ready to scale.”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 53:51 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Chalfen: Poor Unit Economics Leave Startups Dependent on Greater Fools
“Poor unit economics mean you're always relying on the next investor and ultimately the greater fool.”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 55:08 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Chalfen: Failed Multiple Times Investing in Service-to-Software Startups
“I think businesses that start in certain services and the objective is to build out and use the service process to build out software to automate. I think that's very, very, very, I found that very hard to do. And so I've invested in businesses like that a cou…”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 57:31 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Chalfen: Board meetings fail when treated as reporting forums
“You know, I think too many boards are talking shops, but even good boards I think are inefficient. So, you know, with the board, you want to clarify any factual questions up front. Then, you know, so information should come out early, factual questions clarifi…”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 1:03:17 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Chalfen: Carry handcuffs in VC firms suppress internal dissent
“The venture partnerships solve for stability because it's such a long-term business. And there are these sort of carry handcuffs that sort of you know, vesting that encourage people to try and stick around. And I think that as a result, dissent is very, like, …”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 1:14:27 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Chalfen: Recycling capital from 3x to 10x deals optimizes VC returns
“We build a portfolio and if you can take money that looks like it's going to make another three X and put it into a 10 X opportunity that's earlier. That recycling is, is actively good.”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 1:16:28 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Chalfen: VCs who won't re-invest in a company are logically sellers
“Businesses where you are not prepared to invest. Logically, if not emotionally, you're a seller.”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 1:18:25 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Chalfen: Young VCs today are vastly superior to his generation
“Young people today are so much better. In the industry than when I was the equivalent age in the industry when I was starting. I mean, really, it's no contest.”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 1:22:19 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Contradicted
Chalfen: Only three VC firms existed in London in 1996
“There were only three firms in London that did VC.”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 2:07 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Chalfen: Macroeconomic headwinds will persist for a couple of years
“It looks like there's going to be economic headwinds for a couple of years, and in 2000, it was really a sort of our corner of the market was suffering, but the wider world didn't suffer in quite the same way.”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 13:22 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Chalfen: Initial VC checks shouldn't exceed 11% of fund capital
“So I think you wouldn't want to get over, you wouldn't want to get over, I don't know, 10% of the fund, 10, 11% of the fund with the first check, my view. But if you can pick two businesses which you want to become 15 to 20% of the fund, then that's sort of a …”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 32:07 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Mike Chalfen operates sub-$100M funds to minimize follow-on signaling pressure
“So by sort of removing that possibility from my funds by virtue of size, you know, they're sort of sub hundred million dollars. You know, it's, I'm under less pressure to invest a lot in the next round typically.”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 34:12 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Chalfen: Recommended passing on investment in Mark Suster during dot-com crash
“And we said, no, and that was my recommendation was not to put A dollar in.”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 47:17 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Chalfen: The Foundry produced 35-40% profit margins for 10 years capital-free
“So, you know, an example is a winner for me from. 1112 years ago called the foundry, which was making the 35 or 40% margins when it was really not very big. And it didn't grow that fast, but it produced a 40% margin, 35, 40% margins for 10 years, growing at, y…”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 52:49 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Mike Chalfen was the first investor to commit to Illumio
“I was the first person to Commit to Illumio, which turned into a very good, good business and investment.”
Mike Chalfen Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 7:32 Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Show 1statements(1 left)

The other half of the tape: Mike Chalfen's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 5 times in 3 episodes on 20VC. every mention, with the transcript →

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Every mention by year

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Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904 · 20VC with H Jul 8, 2022 59m
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