The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 115 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
O'Driscoll: OpenAI is lobbying in Washington for AI regulation alongside Anthropic
“They're signing this publicly while at the same time lobbying in Washington right alongside Anthropic for a regulatory process.”
Lemkin: OpenAI and Anthropic Lied About Books and YouTube Training Data
“Open AI, an anthropic, Kind of lied about the books, and they definitely lied about training on YouTube”
Lemkin: OpenAI and Anthropic yield 40-70% gross margins on enterprise inference
“They have an enterprise base, which is, it has, you know, between 40 and 70% in, you know, gross margin just on inference.”
Randle: Frontier AI models can now autonomously execute cyber attacks
“Zooming out, I think the most important thing in all this Is that we step back from Anthropic and realize that the models are to place now, whether they're from Anthropic or elsewhere, where they can autonomously find and chain multiple vulnerabilities togethe…”
Anthropic lobbied heavily for US AI export controls
“And definitely like companies like Anthropic lobbied very hard for it.”
O'Driscoll: Musk earns $2B monthly selling compute to Anthropic and Google
“He found two of his biggest competitors who want to buy from him. You know, he's getting two billion a month, 1.25 from an topic and nine 50 from, no, the other way around, nine 50 from a topic, 1.25 from Google, the other way around, two billion a month. Two …”
O'Driscoll: xAI Rented Colossus Cluster to Anthropic for $1.25B Monthly
“They've rented that to Entropic for 1.25 billion a month, right, with a, I think, a ninety-day cancellation clause on either side.”
Peets: Anthropic offered sales reps $1.2M compensation packages
“Like if Anthropic, for example, when they were at their three 80 valuation, they were offering reps, call it a 1,000,002.”
Stebbings: Anthropic secondary market pricing has reached $1 trillion
“Every dollar wants its home in Anthropic right now, and it's caused secondary market prices to surge to a trillion dollars for Anthropic.”
Midha: Anthropic is the fastest-growing business of all time
“Tell them to give me a call when they'd like to be investors in the world's fastest growing business of all time, and then they can lecture me about public benefit governance and market share adoptions.”
Lemkin: US government will block Anthropic indefinitely regardless of court rulings
“The government's going to say you're either going to agree to this or we're going to freeze you out of the US economy. And it doesn't matter what a court says. Because they'll come up with another justification. There'll be another one. There'll be a different…”
Swisher: Anthropic reached $9B ARR while growing 800%
“If you look at Anthropic, right, publicly available numbers, nine billion of ARR growing 800%.”
Lemkin: Anthropic revenue surged to 64% of OpenAI's in 14 months
“Anthropic said it's hundred K customers are up seven X in the last year. So there's not enough time to steal deals. Having said that, going from five percent of OpenAI's revenue to 64% in 14 months, that is stealing budget.”
Lloyd: Anthropic API Margins Are 60%, OpenAI Margins Are 50%
“Anthropic has a big margin on their API business right now. What I've heard is 60% margin on Anthropic's API. I've heard 50% on OpenAI.”
Taneja: Anthropic's enterprise business will be bigger than OpenAI's
“I think their enterprise business I'd argue will be bigger than OpenAI if it already isn't already not having spent that much.”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic's burn dropped from $5B last year to $3B this year
“Seeing the, you know, the strong performance from Antropic in terms of top line growth, and then just looking at the burn, you know, five last year going to three this year.”
Salesforce Agreed to Shift Its LLM Spending to Anthropic
“Dario is showing up because Mark agreed to move Salesforce agreed to move
Their LLM spend to Anthropic.”
Angelopoulos: Most global AI inference spend remains on proprietary first-party APIs
“If you look at the whole space of all inference, most of it is still being consumed on first party APIs and on proprietary models. That's why anthropic revenue has been just a total hockey stick. It's not, you know, it's not like they're being completely canni…”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI reached $12B and Anthropic $4B in GAAP revenue
“The rate at which, you know, OpenAI and Tropic got to four and twelve billion, respectively, other way around, sorry, 12 and four billion, respectively, in GAAP revenue, never before seen, right?”
O'Driscoll: AI developers now require Washington permission before shipping software
“Six months ago, you could ship software like a free man, and now you have to get permission from Washington before you do it. It's a big change, right?”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic Letter Tells Senate Chinese AI Firms Distill Their Models
“Antropic the company said actually in a letter to the Senate Banking Committee recently that basically the Chinese open source companies are bootstrapping their development of their state-of-the-art models by effectively breaching the terms of service of Antro…”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic Settled Book Copyright Lawsuit Over IP Scraping
“All the foundation models, including Anthropic, were trained on other people's IP. To the point where Antropic recently settled litigation with a whole bunch of copyright holders on books because they had, quote, unquote, unfairly, to use Dario's word, applied…”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic delayed shipping its latest model due to US government concerns
“We're seeing Anthropic unable to ship the most recent model until they satisfy the concerns of the US government.”
Perplexity differentiates by orchestrating across competing AI models
“And the way we differentiate ourselves at perplexity Is we don't just orchestrate across tools and files and connectors. We also orchestrate across models. That is the differentiation that Anthropic and OpenAI cannot claim”
Peets: Anthropic sales organization operates on group quotas rather than individual metrics
“They have a group quota.”
Lemkin: Anthropic has secured more compute capacity than OpenAI
“And now Anthropik, I hate the five D eight D chess metaphor, but now it's gonna, it's figured out a way to have more capacity than open AI.”
Lemkin: Anthropic publicly warned Menlo Ventures against SPVs last year
“Anthropic last year warned Menlo, one of its best investors and others, enough with the SPVs, they said publicly, enough with the damn SPVs.”
Stebbings: Anthropic SPVs are charging up to 8% in upfront fees
“Some of the package pricing on these SPVs for Anthropic has just been the most egregious face ripping I've ever seen. I mean it's like, it's just, oh, I mean like eight percent up front.”
Levie: Enterprises cannot shift AI liability to providers like Anthropic
“I promise you, you're not going to be able to blame Anthropic when something goes wrong. And so if you can't blame Anthropic when something goes wrong, then at some point it doesn't really work to tell the company, like to tell your customer, well, That, that …”
O'Driscoll: AI labs will throttle subscriptions and hike prices for compute
“You're going to see some compute rationally, people are going to start allocating tokens to the highest, effectively the highest bidder. You're going to see a lot of throttling, like, you're going to see these plans, like, that's why they shot Sora. You're goi…”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic reports gross AWS revenue; OpenAI reports net Microsoft revenue
“There was this kind of whole meme of OpenAI reports net on their partner revenue and Entropic reports gross. And what they're saying there is if OpenAI sells through Microsoft and Microsoft takes some money off the top, OpenAI only reports the net amount. If A…”
Stebbings: Anthropic made $6B in February, exceeding Databricks' lifetime revenue
“28 day month of February, where they did six billion in revenue, which was more than Databricks has done in their entire lifetime.”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic reaches $19B ARR while OpenAI hits $25B ARR
“Well, to be fair about Entropic and OpenAI, they have a very clear and sensible way they define ARR. What they say is they take the last, the average of the last four weeks to smooth out times to 13, because there were 1304 week periods in a year, which is mor…”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic and SpaceX's next funding rounds will be IPOs
“You've got to believe that the next round for this, Antropic, and SpaceX are all public offerings.”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic retained all seven founders while OpenAI lost most
“Which is why they still have the seven founders when the other guys across the street have lost almost all but one or two of the founders.”
Lemkin: Claude Code will aggressively attack Figma's business this year
“So I believe it will aggressively attack parts of Figma this year, even though they're key partners.”
O'Driscoll: Thrive Capital specifically declined Anthropic investment due to OpenAI stake
“They actually specifically, unlike some of the other funds that have invested in both, they've Specifically our fund that said, no, we backed open AI. We're not going to back on tropics.”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic's three-year 10x revenue growth is unprecedented in tech history
“The truth is you've never seen a company grow 10 X in gap revenue and runway year on year for three years. Right? At this scale. It just hasn't happened.”
Lemkin: OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI will rush IPOs due to capital pressure
“What all three of those say to me is there's no matter, there's subtle pressure around access to capital. Like they've all got to have an IPO strategy sooner than they'd hoped because Data center, because XAI needs capital, because Anthropic is even worried ab…”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic generate virtually all private AI revenue
“So, objectively speaking, if you kind of add up all the AI revenue, you know, you're going to get thirteen billion for OpenAI, four billion for Entropic, and everything else is in the noise, right?”
Lemkin: Anthropic cut off xAI's access to its models
“Even little things like Anthropic cutting off XAI's access to Anthropic this week.”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic's revenue multiple is lower than Palantir's
“It's a much lower revenue multiple than Palantir. It's kind of comparable with Cloudflare for God's sake in the public markets.”
Stebbings: Anthropic Projects Reaching $70B in ARR by 2028
“Anthropic projects seventy billion in ARR by 2028.”
Taneja: Anthropic could be worth $500B by next year
“So that's half a trillion dollar company, like by the end of next year. I'm not saying that's what it's going to be, but if they hit their numbers, I don't see why that won't happen. Just from, I'm just saying public market comps, like that's what those things…”
Taneja: Anthropic raised at ~20x ARR versus 50-100x for AI peers
“Anthropic this round probably was the cheapest round that got done this year on a multiple spaces. Which company was raising capital at, you know, at 20 times ARR? They're all raising capital at 50 to a hundred times ARR.”
Zhang: Valuation gap between OpenAI and Anthropic will shrink over time
“I don't think that long-term necessarily we'll always see a five X difference between open and anthropic. So I guess, yeah, maybe, maybe if the question is more like, what is spread trade? I think like that, that multiple will shrink. Over time.”
Lemkin: Microsoft shifting default model choice to Anthropic across several products
“Microsoft I think today said they're moving not just parts of office to Anthropic, but that it is the default choice for several other products and that Microsoft today said several months ago, they told their teams to start using cloud code several months ago…”
Lemkin: Anthropic Sourced AI Book Training Datasets Directly from Pirate Sites
“They downloaded this from pirate websites. Okay. This wasn't cutting a little bit of a corner. Okay. This wasn't claiming something that wasn't quite open source was, This is literally, guys, we got to get this rocket ship going. I need a trillion books. I'm g…”