The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
O'Driscoll: AI developers now require Washington permission before shipping software
“Six months ago, you could ship software like a free man, and now you have to get permission from Washington before you do it. It's a big change, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 9, 2026 ▶ 2:07 Enterprises Fear Frontier Models | Sam Altman Offers Trump 5% of OpenAI | DeepSeek Builds Own Chips · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Anthropic has secured more compute capacity than OpenAI
“And now Anthropik, I hate the five D eight D chess metaphor, but now it's gonna, it's figured out a way to have more capacity than open AI.”
Jason Lemkin May 14, 2026 ▶ 10:44 Anthropic Buys Compute From Elon & Commits $200BN to Google | Cerebras IPO | Ramp Raises at $40BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Contradicted
Stebbings: Anthropic made $6B in February, exceeding Databricks' lifetime revenue
“28 day month of February, where they did six billion in revenue, which was more than Databricks has done in their entire lifetime.”
Harry Stebbings Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 1:16 OpenAI Kills Sora & Hits $100M ARR on Ads | Oura Going Public & Whoop Raises at $10BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Microsoft shifting default model choice to Anthropic across several products
“Microsoft I think today said they're moving not just parts of office to Anthropic, but that it is the default choice for several other products and that Microsoft today said several months ago, they told their teams to start using cloud code several months ago…”
Jason Lemkin Sep 18, 2025 ▶ 44:01 Opendoor CEO, Kaz Nejatian: OpenAI and Oracle, How Can Either Afford to Do This · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Contradicted
O'Driscoll: First venture rounds for OpenAI and Anthropic were $23B and $4B
“The first venture round at OpenAI was twenty-three billion pre with Thrive, and the first venture round at Entropic was four billion pre with Spark and Menlo, you know, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 56:40 Anthropic’s $10B Raise | a16z’s $15B Fund: Is the Middle Dead in VC? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Contradicted
Anthropic acquired a wet lab facility
“Anthropic bought a wet lab.”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 24:35 Perplexity CEO: Micron Will Be More Valuable Than Meta & How Export Controls Helped Not Hurt China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Contradicted
Weinberg says Anthropic reached roughly $3 billion in revenue entering 2025
“I'm pretty sure Anthropix at like three billion in revenue right now.”
Winston Weinberg Jan 19, 2026 ▶ 8:11 Harvey CEO Winston Weinberg: How to Make Mega Deals | Lessons from Rabois, Halligan & Grady · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Didn’t hold up
O'Driscoll: Anthropic's $10B raise will likely be its last before IPO
“I think it probably will be the last one before the IPO.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 1:49 Anthropic’s $10B Raise | a16z’s $15B Fund: Is the Middle Dead in VC? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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