why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
O'Driscoll: Sam Altman took 10% of AMD for chip purchasing privileges
“Sam Altman understands power. He has more power than AMD, so he took 10% of their company for the privilege of selling stuff to him.”
Assertion Supported
Feldman: Intel Kept 75% Market Share Despite a Decade of Failures
“Intel has made, until hiring LibBoo, prior to that, nearly a decade of Catastrophic decisions. Right? And they still own 80% of the x-eighty-six market. 75% of the market. Right? AMD's worked up to like 25% or 30%. And after a decade of screwing up.”
Assertion Contradicted
Feldman: Cerebras deployed more exaflops than anyone except Nvidia and AMD
“We, we've deployed tens of exaflops of compute vastly more than anybody else that, that, that isn't AMD or NVIDIA, right?”
Assertion Contradicted
Morin: AMD GPUs achieve 4x inference throughput over Nvidia setups
“If you run on AMD, well, there's enough memory inside the GPU to run one model per card. So you get, you know, eight GPUs, eight times the throughput, while on the other hand, you get eight GPUs, two, you know, two, maybe two and a half times the throughput. S…”
Assertion Contradicted
Morin: Switching from Nvidia to AMD offers 4x spend efficiency
“A simple example is if you know, switch from Nvidia to AMD on a seven TB model, you can get four times better efficiency, right? In terms of spend.”
Prediction Partly held up
Nicolai Tangen: Global chip shortage will resolve itself through market competition
“Yeah, so I don't think too much about it, to be frank, because I suspect it will take care of itself, because we have commercial players here, and I just saw that AMD is launching a new chip, which is even faster than what was available before, and so I suspec…”
Prediction Held up
Sivulka: Big Tech custom chips and AMD will win AI inference over startups
“I think it'll probably be large tech providers and AMD.”