why aren't all 19 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Disclosure
AlleyCorp Does Not Prioritize Target VC Ownership Percentages
“Here's the thing that I don't think about, which is our ownership. Sometimes we're paying a big price, and we're paying a big price because it's an incredible team and an incredible opportunity.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
30% of VCs Reject Pitch Decks Unseen Due to Prior Sector Losses
“I see it all the time when we have a company going out and we approach 10 VCs and three of them will say, I invested in this sector eight years ago and I lost all my money. They haven't even read the deck yet”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2034
Kevin Ryan: Psychedelic industry will be 20x larger in 10 years
“We're big investors, for example, in the psychedelic industry. Is the psychedelic industry gonna be 20 times larger 10 years from now than today? Absolutely.”
Disclosure
AlleyCorp Retains 55% to 60% Equity in Its Incubated Startups
“It depends, but, you know, roughly the team and CEO are probably going to get around 40, 45% of the company, and then we will have the rest because we came up with the idea, put in the money, did all the work, ah, and everyone gets paid from day one.”
Insight
Ryan: Companies cannot easily go public merely by taking price cuts
“That is wrong. If your company's growing at 60% and profitable, yes, you can always go public. But at the margin, it is not easy to take companies public. There's not a lot of appetite.”
Insight
Stalled $50M Revenue Startups Are Worth $200M, Not 10x Revenue
“So one, if they've plateaued their growth, they're not worth 500. You know, they're not at all. I mean, 10 times revenue for a company that's not growing that much is, is not going to fly in today's market. That company's worth, you know, maybe 200 if they're …”
Disclosure
Ryan: Top Multi-Stage VCs Rarely Compete in AlleyCorp's Seed Deals
“No, we don't see in the last, you know, 20 seed deals they're not in there very often.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AlleyCorp almost never backs corporate executives lacking startup experience
“So I would say that a lot of the people we back are first time founders. We would never, almost never back someone who comes from Procter and Gamble, a large company and seems like a smart person, but they don't know startups.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2044
Kevin Ryan: AlleyCorp Will Not Try to Become a $2B Fund
“The business we're in does not scale infinitely. We're not trying to accumulate assets, so I don't want to be a two billion dollar fund.”
Disclosure
Ryan: AlleyCorp invests $1M–$1.5M in incubations; 80% raise follow-on rounds
“When we start a company, We don't bail out on the company, but we put a million, million and a half dollars in. We hire a CEO. If we've made the decision to go forward now, then the market decides because nine months later, they're going to go out to raise mon…”
Disclosure
Kevin Ryan: AlleyCorp avoids healthcare investments outside the US
“We, you know, we don't do any healthcare outside of the United States because the U S Healthcare market is both enormous and terrible, which is what you want when you're an entrepreneur.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Ryan: AlleyCorp stops investing in portfolio companies once valued at $1B
“You know, when our companies are worth a billion, we're just not investing in them at that point.”
Disclosure
AlleyCorp raises $250 million in its first outside venture fund
“We've been investing really my money in a different structure for the last decade, and, you know, we have a 120 companies in the portfolio have made many investments, started over 20 companies, but we just announced that we, it's the first outside fund with ou…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kevin Ryan: Every portfolio company quadrupling revenue successfully gets funded
“I don't have any companies going out that have quadrupled their revenues in the last year that don't get funded.”
Assertion Contradicted
Kevin Ryan says AlleyCorp has never had an incubated company CEO resign
“We've never had a CEO resign.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ryan: AlleyCorp caps investment in any single company at $10M-$15M
“We generally don't put more than ten million, might go to fifteen million in any one company, and sometimes we'll leave some money on the table and other people will take it.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
AlleyCorp evaluated 1,000 robotics deals in a single year
“We saw a thousand robotics deals last year.”
Disclosure
AlleyCorp incubates six to eight new companies per year
“So it's bottoms up, but we historically last couple of years, we're doing somewhere between six and eight Eight companies a year, but we have multiple industry groups and multiple people.”
What-if
Kevin Ryan: AlleyCorp Should Have Scaled Startup Incubation Much Earlier
“If I knew now what I knew then, I would have been much more aggressive early on in starting more companies, building up more of a team, because sometimes it takes five to seven years to know that things are going really well.”