The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe May 2027
Lemkin: AI will replace half of knowledge workers in 24 months
“Half of these knowledge workers are going to be gone in 24 months”
Jason Lemkin May 8, 2025 ▶ 31:31 Benchmark vs a16z: Why Stage Specific Firms Win · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2035
Lazarte: Only 1% of computer knowledge work will exist in 10 years
“What percentage of knowledge work as we know today will exist in 10 years? Like if you define work, knowledge work as work you do behind a computer, I think it's probably like one percent.”
Victor Lazarte Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 38:50 Benchmark GP, Victor Lazarte: The 3 Traits All the Best Founders Have · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2032
Wood: Disruptive innovation market cap will hit $210T in ten years
“We believe today that truly disruptive technologically enabled innovation is priced in the global markets, public and private, at somewhere in the seven to eight trillion dollar range. So it's less than 10% of the global equity cap, public and private. We beli…”
Cathie Wood Nov 14, 2022 ▶ 45:47 Cathie Wood: Elon & Twitter; Why Facebook is a Value Stock Now; ARK's Performance | 20VC #949 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2031
Lemkin: Will only invest in startups working in-office six days weekly
“I want small high paid teams that work in the office over six days a week. That's I'm not interested in investing in anything else. I'm just not interested. And it's not because I don't have empathy. It's because they're gonna fail.”
Jason Lemkin Jun 25, 2026 ▶ 1:14:55 DeepSeek Raises at $50B | The Rise of Open Source vs OpenAI & Anthropic | OpenAI Builds Own Chip · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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