Prediction certainty 3/5 debate potential 4/5

Lemkin: A whole generation of recent VC funds will only return 1X

Jason Lemkin · Jason Lemkin: Crowdstrike, WTF Happens From Here? Wiz Rejects Google’s $23BN Acquisition Offer|E1181 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings · Jul 24, 2024 · at 42:10

SaaS investor Jason Lemkin discusses venture capital performance on 20VC, arguing that many recent fund vintages will struggle to yield strong returns for LPs.

0:00 / 0:45exact quote · 45.5s
▶ Watch the full episode on YouTube → 720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“This one isn't like epic, but I just think we're sitting on a ton of one X funds in venture. Just so many one X funds. They'll never get out of one X. A whole generation. And listen, I barely saw I, when I was, when I first joined venture, I could see the tail end of the 2000 funds. I mean, I wasn't there in venture, but I could see what they looked like 1415 years out and just doing one X in a 2000 vintage fund was like top decile, I think. I'm not saying we're going through that, but there is such a, there are so many funds that will end up the whole generation of one X funds and how it's just founders aren't yet paying the price or not getting the benefits, but that's one thing people aren't touched. I, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of funds from the last few years are one X funds.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

More from Jason Lemkin

Prediction Open · timeframe May 2027
Lemkin: AI will replace half of knowledge workers in 24 months
“Half of these knowledge workers are going to be gone in 24 months”
Jason Lemkin May 8, 2025 ▶ 31:31 Benchmark vs a16z: Why Stage Specific Firms Win · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Every crypto company offering an Earn program is a fraud
“I believe every crypto company that has an EARN program is a fraud.”
Jason Lemkin Jan 4, 2024 ▶ 14:24 Jason Lemkin: Predictions for 2024 - What Does a Trump Administration do for Startups? | E1099 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Lemkin: Coinbase's 10% high-yield crypto program is a pyramid scheme
“And even, I know Coinbase is the good one, but where are they getting this 10%? It's a pyramid scheme. It's fraud.”
Jason Lemkin Jan 4, 2024 ▶ 14:56 Jason Lemkin: Predictions for 2024 - What Does a Trump Administration do for Startups? | E1099 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Every venture capital firm has a fraudulent company in its portfolio
“And every VC has a fraud in their portfolio. Every single VC has a fraud in their portfolio.”
Jason Lemkin Aug 9, 2023 ▶ 52:06 Jason Lemkin: Every VC has a FRAUD in their portfolio; The IPO market is about to EXPLODE | E1046 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Lemkin: Governments should guarantee 0% financing for AI data centers
“We have to guarantee zero percent financing for all data centers. We'll get all our money back.”
Jason Lemkin Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 0:44 The SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse |Microsoft Lost $360B & NVIDIA’s $100B Dispute with OpenAI
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Non-engineering software categories face existential seat shrinking
“Every category that I know of outside of engineering and product is at existential risk of shrinking seats.”
Jason Lemkin Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 41:06 Anthropic's Super Bowl Ad: Who Won & Lost? | Sierra Hits $150M ARR: Is Customer Support Too Crowded? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Made with StarZero

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 1,200 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.