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Rotman: YC encourages artificial growth for Demo Day, causing VCs to overpay

Frank Rotman · DEBATE: State of Seed Investing w/ Jason Lemkin, Sam Lessin, Frank Rotman & Harry Stebbings | E1047 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings · Aug 11, 2023 · at 39:17

Frank Rotman, founding partner at QED Investors, discusses the downsides of accelerator batch models like Y Combinator during a 20VC panel debate on seed investing.

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“A lot of the growth trajectory was in unscalable things in order to get the up and to the right, 45 degree chart so that you can package it for demo day. You know, so there are a lot of artificial things done in order to package it, like you know, to Sam's point, it will come off the factory all looking the same. And a lot of that advice you actually have to undo, you know, if you end up funding the company. So you end up overpaying and then having to undo a bunch of the damage. You know, that was done by setting up the company in the first place in the way that they got their early results.”

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Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2028
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Frank Rotman Aug 11, 2023 ▶ 5:40 DEBATE: State of Seed Investing w/ Jason Lemkin, Sam Lessin, Frank Rotman & Harry Stebbings | E1047 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Rotman: Venture pricing has corrected across stages, except at seed
“Pricing has slowly started to correct, but it still hasn't corrected at the seed stage.”
Frank Rotman Aug 11, 2023 ▶ 9:42 DEBATE: State of Seed Investing w/ Jason Lemkin, Sam Lessin, Frank Rotman & Harry Stebbings | E1047 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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“And if pricing doesn't correct at the earliest stage you're going to have a lot of no bids, you know, at the Series A because they wouldn't have gone far enough, fast enough for a Series A investor to come in and say they've earned their way into a significant…”
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“Companies need to learn to make money at low levels of scale, right? Either you're in an unlimited TAM market where you can justify putting capital into the business and continuing to pour capital into the business. I think some SaaS companies Like, the TAMs a…”
Frank Rotman Aug 11, 2023 ▶ 15:34 DEBATE: State of Seed Investing w/ Jason Lemkin, Sam Lessin, Frank Rotman & Harry Stebbings | E1047 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Rotman: Doubling revenue at higher cost generates anti-proof for startups
“But if it was harder to get that doubling than you thought, or it costs you more to get that doubling than you thought, or your manufacturing costs went up, or the margins weren't there, you know, in that doubling, you're actually generating anti-proof of the …”
Frank Rotman Aug 11, 2023 ▶ 35:24 DEBATE: State of Seed Investing w/ Jason Lemkin, Sam Lessin, Frank Rotman & Harry Stebbings | E1047 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rotman: Middling VC funds and emerging managers will struggle to raise capital
“For a number of years, like if you were a Middling fund, you know, or an emerging manager, you're going to have problems raising capital.”
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