Sam Arbesman

Venture Partner, Lux Capital · 1 appearance on the record.

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scientistauthorinvestoracademic@arbesman ↗LinkedIn ↗arbesman.net ↗

Sam Arbesman is a complexity scientist and Venture Partner at Lux Capital. He is the author of books including The Half-Life of Facts and Overcomplicated, and serves as an adjunct professor at Case Western Reserve University.

12statements → 4claims → 2claims resolved → 3.58/5average certainty → 2.08/5average debate potential → 4.3/5argument clarity · the sources →

2 supported 0 partly supported 0 contradicted 2 not checkable as stated how the 4 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

2 predictions · 2 assertions · 2 opinions · 6 insights · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 4 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 2 are resolved, and 2 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Sam argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Arbesman: Computer malware encoded in DNA successfully compromised a sequencing machine
“We've actually seen in the news recently this that malware was encoded in DNA and then it compromised and took over a machine involved in analyzing the sequences which is pretty wild stuff.”
Sam Arbesman Oct 18, 2017 ▶ 16:56 20VC: Lux Capital's Scientist-In-Residence on Why We Cannot Just Be Specialists Today, The Benefits of Interdisciplinary Thinking & Computational Creativity That Makes Man and Machine Partners with Sam Arbesman

Argument clarity: do they answer the question? how? →

4.3 / 5 directness 4.8 · coherence 4.6 · precision 4 · compression 3.6

answered every one of 22 assessed questions directly

This is a score against a rubric. It is not a rank. Every host question → answer exchange is scored with names hidden on directness, coherence, precision and compression, 1–5 each, on meaning alone: disfluencies are ignored, and only raw unedited episodes count. This is the score that measures thought. Every scored exchange, scores shown → · The rubric and its checks →

How they sound: speaking style how? →

261 words/min while actually speaking · 13.1 um and uh per 1k words

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 3,669 words across 1 episode of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

Everything Sam Arbesman said on 20VC that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Arbesman: Human advances will require AI partnerships due to cognitive limits
“And so we're going to need these kind of machine partners in order to continue making advances, and so rather than viewing it as humans are being displaced, it's really essentially that humans are only through this partnership are humans going to be able to co…”
Sam Arbesman Oct 18, 2017 ▶ 13:58 20VC: Lux Capital's Scientist-In-Residence on Why We Cannot Just Be Specialists Today, The Benefits of Interdisciplinary Thinking & Computational Creativity That Makes Man and Machine Partners with Sam Arbesman
Insight
Arbesman: Humans will feel vicarious pride in AI-generated creations
“We are going to increasingly need to have a certain amount of nachos for our technologies, where these technologies might be doing things, might be doing activities that they might be making creations that are not our own, but we were the ones who ultimately p…”
Sam Arbesman Oct 18, 2017 ▶ 15:20 20VC: Lux Capital's Scientist-In-Residence on Why We Cannot Just Be Specialists Today, The Benefits of Interdisciplinary Thinking & Computational Creativity That Makes Man and Machine Partners with Sam Arbesman
Assertion Supported
Arbesman: Computer malware encoded in DNA successfully compromised a sequencing machine
“We've actually seen in the news recently this that malware was encoded in DNA and then it compromised and took over a machine involved in analyzing the sequences which is pretty wild stuff.”
Sam Arbesman Oct 18, 2017 ▶ 16:56 20VC: Lux Capital's Scientist-In-Residence on Why We Cannot Just Be Specialists Today, The Benefits of Interdisciplinary Thinking & Computational Creativity That Makes Man and Machine Partners with Sam Arbesman
Opinion
Arbesman: VCs can succeed in deep tech by avoiding naive cross-domain analogies
“Yes, I do think so. As long as we're really just not stepping too naively from one domain to another, and we recognize essentially both the promise and perils of analogizing from one complex system to another. So as long as we do this with open eyes, I think w…”
Sam Arbesman Oct 18, 2017 ▶ 19:11 20VC: Lux Capital's Scientist-In-Residence on Why We Cannot Just Be Specialists Today, The Benefits of Interdisciplinary Thinking & Computational Creativity That Makes Man and Machine Partners with Sam Arbesman
Insight
Arbesman: Combining disparate ideas creates a defensible moat for startups
“So I think if a startup can bring together disparate ideas and carve out a niche and unique way of thinking and provide something of value to the world, that's something that is both differentiable and also a defensible moat because it's hard to jump across di…”
Sam Arbesman Oct 18, 2017 ▶ 6:00 20VC: Lux Capital's Scientist-In-Residence on Why We Cannot Just Be Specialists Today, The Benefits of Interdisciplinary Thinking & Computational Creativity That Makes Man and Machine Partners with Sam Arbesman
Insight
Arbesman: Combining specialists, T-shaped people, and generalists builds optimal organizations
“Bring all those different people together, specialists, teachers, individuals, people who are a little bit more general minded into an organization is going to make it the best version possible.”
Sam Arbesman Oct 18, 2017 ▶ 8:32 20VC: Lux Capital's Scientist-In-Residence on Why We Cannot Just Be Specialists Today, The Benefits of Interdisciplinary Thinking & Computational Creativity That Makes Man and Machine Partners with Sam Arbesman
Insight
Arbesman: Computational tools are necessary to navigate increasingly complex systems
“As the world around us is becoming more and more complex, it's becoming more difficult to fully understand either the technologies that we ourselves have built, or the systems that we're trying to understand in science, like a biological system, for example. A…”
Sam Arbesman Oct 18, 2017 ▶ 11:00 20VC: Lux Capital's Scientist-In-Residence on Why We Cannot Just Be Specialists Today, The Benefits of Interdisciplinary Thinking & Computational Creativity That Makes Man and Machine Partners with Sam Arbesman
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Arbesman: Machines will increasingly join human teams in creative collaboration
“But ultimately, I think creativity, it's always been, to a certain degree, a collaborative act, and now we're going to increasingly count machines as part Of our collaborative teams now.”
Sam Arbesman Oct 18, 2017 ▶ 11:37 20VC: Lux Capital's Scientist-In-Residence on Why We Cannot Just Be Specialists Today, The Benefits of Interdisciplinary Thinking & Computational Creativity That Makes Man and Machine Partners with Sam Arbesman
Insight
Arbesman: Frontier tech is too broad to be treated as a single category
“While there might be certain similarities, I think frontier tech overall, and it's really this, it's very broad and diffuse space, and so in many ways I'm almost hesitant to group it all under kind of that umbrella term. And because the knowledge you need to d…”
Sam Arbesman Oct 18, 2017 ▶ 19:46 20VC: Lux Capital's Scientist-In-Residence on Why We Cannot Just Be Specialists Today, The Benefits of Interdisciplinary Thinking & Computational Creativity That Makes Man and Machine Partners with Sam Arbesman
Opinion
Arbesman: The startup ecosystem is far less siloed than academia
“The startup ecosystem is certainly in a much better shape than for example, like academia, where academia is incredibly siloed.”
Sam Arbesman Oct 18, 2017 ▶ 8:51 20VC: Lux Capital's Scientist-In-Residence on Why We Cannot Just Be Specialists Today, The Benefits of Interdisciplinary Thinking & Computational Creativity That Makes Man and Machine Partners with Sam Arbesman
Assertion Supported
Arbesman: Data can now be stored directly within DNA sequences
“We're now able to store data in DNA, which has a certain similarity to computation.”
Sam Arbesman Oct 18, 2017 ▶ 16:48 20VC: Lux Capital's Scientist-In-Residence on Why We Cannot Just Be Specialists Today, The Benefits of Interdisciplinary Thinking & Computational Creativity That Makes Man and Machine Partners with Sam Arbesman
Insight
Arbesman: Modularity is a core hallmark shared by biology and technology
“Modularity is a hallmark of both biology and technology.”
Sam Arbesman Oct 18, 2017 ▶ 16:53 20VC: Lux Capital's Scientist-In-Residence on Why We Cannot Just Be Specialists Today, The Benefits of Interdisciplinary Thinking & Computational Creativity That Makes Man and Machine Partners with Sam Arbesman

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
20VC: Lux Capital's Scientist-In-Residence on Why We Cannot Just Be Specialists Today, The Oct 18, 2017 15m
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