Josh Breinlinger

Founding Partner, Turtle Ventures · 1 appearance on the record.

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investorfounderoperatorLinkedIn ↗turtlevc.co ↗

Josh Breinlinger is an early-stage venture investor specializing in online marketplaces and network-effects businesses, having launched Turtle Ventures in 2021. He was previously on the founding team at oDesk, co-founded Rev.com, and led investments in OfferUp and Contently at Jackson Square Ventures.

15statements → 2claims → 1claims resolved → 3.8/5average certainty → 2.4/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated → 3said about them ↓

1 supported 0 partly supported 0 contradicted 1 not yet assessed how the 2 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

2 assertions · 3 opinions · 8 insights · 2 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 2 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 1 is resolved, 1 is not yet assessed. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Josh argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported

Breinlinger: Meerkat's rapid growth was unsustainable and crashed post-investment

“Meerkat is actually one of my favorite examples, which was skyrocketing in terms of usage, but nothing was sustainable about it, and, you know, they got an investment, and it crashed shortly after that”

Josh Breinlinger Apr 5, 2017 ▶ 5:32 20VC: Why Spray & Pray Investing Is Wrong, Why Data-Informed VC Beats Data Driven VC & What To Look For When Investing In A Marketplace with Josh Breinlinger, Managing Director @ Jackson Square Ventures

How they sound: speaking style how? →

235 words/min while actually speaking · 3.8 um and uh per 1k words

No argument clarity score for Josh Breinlinger: no usable question→answer exchanges on raw tape (a fair score needs 8+). We do not score a sample that small. Roundtable and news formats yield far fewer direct exchanges than interviews. Their coarse estimate from 18 exchanges on the produced feed is ≈4.5/5, shown at half point precision because the sample is small and produced tape scores higher.

Measured by listening to 3,643 words across 1 episode, but every recording we have of Josh Breinlinger is the aired feed, and an editor cleaned that audio before release. Some of the hesitation was cut before we ever heard it, so read these as floors: the true rates are at least this high. These are measurements of speaking style, not scores. How it's measured →

How the interview went all their pushback → series average →

Across 1 rated episode:

host pushback ▾ 4/10

pushed back at the host 2/10

setup questions received 85%

host pushback: the hardest questions Harry asked, tap to play ▶ 12:15“Is this an attractive sphere for VCs? Is it not a potentially smaller TAM with the kind of deeper specialization and kind of higher commodity goods almost.” ▶ 18:48“Would you say that Uber potentially have failed with this with regards to the transferability and switching that often occurs within the driver segment between Lyft and Uber?” ▶ 20:17“What are your theses around bridge rounds? Often I hear investors say, kind of, it's a peer to nowhere and just sign of a lack of product market fit. Is that something you subscrib…”

What they said15 What others said3 Episodes1

Everything Josh Breinlinger said on 20VC that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Insight

Breinlinger: Relying on early metrics like MRR leads VCs to bad decisions

“If you are so focused on just the data of user acquisitions, MRR growth, whatever, especially at the early stages where it's probably only a million or so in revenue, I think you can just buy into hype too easily and make bad decisions that ignore common sense…”

Josh Breinlinger Apr 5, 2017 ▶ 5:03 20VC: Why Spray & Pray Investing Is Wrong, Why Data-Informed VC Beats Data Driven VC & What To Look For When Investing In A Marketplace with Josh Breinlinger, Managing Director @ Jackson Square Ventures

Insight

Breinlinger: On-demand 'Uber for locksmiths' models are terrible marketplace ideas

“Where people run into mistakes is where they might try to do the Uber for locksmiths. To me, that's just a terrible market because you just don't use locksmiths very often.”

Josh Breinlinger Apr 5, 2017 ▶ 14:41 20VC: Why Spray & Pray Investing Is Wrong, Why Data-Informed VC Beats Data Driven VC & What To Look For When Investing In A Marketplace with Josh Breinlinger, Managing Director @ Jackson Square Ventures

Disclosure

Breinlinger: Three of four Jackson Square Ventures unicorns required bridge rounds

“At Jackson Square Ventures, the partners here, we've invested in four unicorn companies, and three of them, Equalogic, DocuSign, and Responsys, they all had bridge rounds.”

Josh Breinlinger Apr 5, 2017 ▶ 20:29 20VC: Why Spray & Pray Investing Is Wrong, Why Data-Informed VC Beats Data Driven VC & What To Look For When Investing In A Marketplace with Josh Breinlinger, Managing Director @ Jackson Square Ventures

Insight

Breinlinger: Concentrated, high-conviction portfolios are best strategy to beat market

“I believe the best way to get returns is to have very high conviction investments, very concentrated investments, and I think that's the way to beat the market and stand out.”

Josh Breinlinger Apr 5, 2017 ▶ 8:37 20VC: Why Spray & Pray Investing Is Wrong, Why Data-Informed VC Beats Data Driven VC & What To Look For When Investing In A Marketplace with Josh Breinlinger, Managing Director @ Jackson Square Ventures

Opinion

Breinlinger: Marketplace platforms cannot successfully span both commodity and premium tiers

“I actually don't believe the same company can own both. Largely because the workflow is just completely different for commodity level and master level.”

Josh Breinlinger Apr 5, 2017 ▶ 11:17 20VC: Why Spray & Pray Investing Is Wrong, Why Data-Informed VC Beats Data Driven VC & What To Look For When Investing In A Marketplace with Josh Breinlinger, Managing Director @ Jackson Square Ventures

Insight

Breinlinger: Horizontal marketplaces beat vertical models for low-frequency categories

“The frequency of any one of those Types of transactions might be fairly low, but when you span every single category and you can literally buy anything, the frequency is, is very high. And OfferUp has done that in peer-to-peer commerce. Thumbtack has done that…”

Josh Breinlinger Apr 5, 2017 ▶ 15:20 20VC: Why Spray & Pray Investing Is Wrong, Why Data-Informed VC Beats Data Driven VC & What To Look For When Investing In A Marketplace with Josh Breinlinger, Managing Director @ Jackson Square Ventures

Assertion Not publicly verifiable

Breinlinger: DocuSign lost 25% of revenue overnight after regulatory shifts

“DocuSign was a fascinating story because we had led a round, and then shortly after that, some regulations changed, and basically they lost 25% of their revenue overnight.”

Josh Breinlinger Apr 5, 2017 ▶ 20:52 20VC: Why Spray & Pray Investing Is Wrong, Why Data-Informed VC Beats Data Driven VC & What To Look For When Investing In A Marketplace with Josh Breinlinger, Managing Director @ Jackson Square Ventures

Assertion Supported

Breinlinger: Meerkat's rapid growth was unsustainable and crashed post-investment

Insight

Breinlinger: Evaluate founding team first, product second, and data third

“And so I have to fall in love with the team first, then with the product and the service, and then the data has to back it up.”

Josh Breinlinger Apr 5, 2017 ▶ 7:03 20VC: Why Spray & Pray Investing Is Wrong, Why Data-Informed VC Beats Data Driven VC & What To Look For When Investing In A Marketplace with Josh Breinlinger, Managing Director @ Jackson Square Ventures

Opinion

Breinlinger: Audio transcription cannot support a premium master marketplace model

“I don't think there's an opportunity to build a master transcription marketplace because there's just not enough of a difference in quality between what we do as the commodity and what a master could do.”

Josh Breinlinger Apr 5, 2017 ▶ 12:34 20VC: Why Spray & Pray Investing Is Wrong, Why Data-Informed VC Beats Data Driven VC & What To Look For When Investing In A Marketplace with Josh Breinlinger, Managing Director @ Jackson Square Ventures

Insight

Breinlinger: Frequent small marketplace transactions create more value than large trades

“Somebody comes into your marketplace and spends a thousand dollars one time, and then they're gone. Or somebody comes in, spends 10 dollars a hundred times with a hundred different providers. That is much more valuable because you've got so much more data and …”

Josh Breinlinger Apr 5, 2017 ▶ 16:01 20VC: Why Spray & Pray Investing Is Wrong, Why Data-Informed VC Beats Data Driven VC & What To Look For When Investing In A Marketplace with Josh Breinlinger, Managing Director @ Jackson Square Ventures

Disclosure

Breinlinger: Jackson Square tests if users outgrow marketplace services before investing

“That's actually an important test I look at for every investment is, hey, do users outgrow the service?”

Josh Breinlinger Apr 5, 2017 ▶ 17:25 20VC: Why Spray & Pray Investing Is Wrong, Why Data-Informed VC Beats Data Driven VC & What To Look For When Investing In A Marketplace with Josh Breinlinger, Managing Director @ Jackson Square Ventures

Insight

Breinlinger: Marketplaces only win when users move all behavior to one platform

“If people can switch too easily back and forth, you just don't really have that defensibility yet. And you're not building that boat. You know, I think you really need people to completely move all their behavior to your marketplace, and that's when you can wi…”

Josh Breinlinger Apr 5, 2017 ▶ 18:36 20VC: Why Spray & Pray Investing Is Wrong, Why Data-Informed VC Beats Data Driven VC & What To Look For When Investing In A Marketplace with Josh Breinlinger, Managing Director @ Jackson Square Ventures

Opinion

Breinlinger: Uber lacks lock-in because drivers routinely switch to Lyft

“Yeah, it's a big challenge for them. You know, I've certainly heard that Lyft is gaining market share, and that is a big problem for them, that almost, you walk around San Francisco, and every car has two stickers on it, One Uber and one Lyft. And so, it's rea…”

Josh Breinlinger Apr 5, 2017 ▶ 18:59 20VC: Why Spray & Pray Investing Is Wrong, Why Data-Informed VC Beats Data Driven VC & What To Look For When Investing In A Marketplace with Josh Breinlinger, Managing Director @ Jackson Square Ventures

Insight

Breinlinger: Aggregating supply or demand solves the marketplace chicken-and-egg problem

“I think one of the strongest ways is to find some sort of aggregator. So find an aggregator of demand or an aggregator of supply to kind of solve one side of the marketplace for you.”

Josh Breinlinger Apr 5, 2017 ▶ 22:49 20VC: Why Spray & Pray Investing Is Wrong, Why Data-Informed VC Beats Data Driven VC & What To Look For When Investing In A Marketplace with Josh Breinlinger, Managing Director @ Jackson Square Ventures

The other half of the tape: Josh Breinlinger's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 3 times in 3 episodes on 20VC. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Harry Stebbings 2 Sarah Tavel 1