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John Taylor

Former Head of Research, NVCA · 1 appearance on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

analystexecutive

From 1996 through approximately 2015, John S. Taylor led research and data initiatives at the NVCA, overseeing benchmarks such as the PwC/NVCA MoneyTree Report. In 2003, he co-founded the NVCA CFO Task Force to help member firms address emerging accounting, regulatory, and reporting standards.

10statements → 10claims → 9claims resolved → 67%fully supported → 3.9/5average certainty → 1.6/5average debate potential → 4.0/5argument clarity · the sources →

6 supported 2 partly supported 1 contradicted 1 not checkable as stated how the 10 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

1 prediction · 9 assertions · every statement was checked. The prediction and assertions are the 10 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 9 are resolved, and 1 names no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how John argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Active venture capital firm count dropped 30% between 2010 and 2015
“I think also you have to look at where venture is, and over the past four or five years, we, we've seen a reduction in the number of firms, a slight reduction in the amount of capital available, but A significant 30% reduction in the number of firms out there …”
John Taylor Apr 23, 2015 ▶ 17:10 20 VC 030: VC Funds, Angels and IPOs with John Taylor, Head of Research @ NVCA

Their most notable contradicted claim

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Taylor predicts only 5% to 6% of recent startups will IPO
“Now, because it takes so long, it's very hard for us to know you know, what the current crop of companies or even the crop of companies eight or 10 years ago what their outcome will be. But my guess is it's going to be five Maybe six percent. It's just a much,…”
John Taylor Apr 23, 2015 ▶ 10:31 20 VC 030: VC Funds, Angels and IPOs with John Taylor, Head of Research @ NVCA

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
0% certainty 2
none yet certainty 3
92% certainty 4
75% certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

Argument clarity: do they answer the question? how? →

4.0 / 5 directness 4.1 · coherence 4.1 · precision 4 · compression 3.4

redirected or did not address 2 of 21 assessed questions (10%). Watch them ▸

This is a score against a rubric. It is not a rank. Every host question → answer exchange is scored with names hidden on directness, coherence, precision and compression, 1–5 each, on meaning alone: disfluencies are ignored, and only raw unedited episodes count. This is the score that measures thought. Every scored exchange, scores shown → · The rubric and its checks →

How they sound: speaking style how? →

225 words/min while actually speaking · 41 um and uh per 1k words

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 3,367 words across 1 episode of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

How the interview went all their pushback → series average →

Across 1 rated episode:

host pushback ▾ 1/10
pushed back at the host 1/10
setup questions received 85%

Everything John Taylor said on 20VC that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Assertion Partly supported
Venture capital funds historically returned 25% to 30% net to LPs
“Historically, venture capital funds have returned to their investors net about 25 to 30%.”
John Taylor Apr 23, 2015 ▶ 4:22 20 VC 030: VC Funds, Angels and IPOs with John Taylor, Head of Research @ NVCA
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Taylor predicts only 5% to 6% of recent startups will IPO
“Now, because it takes so long, it's very hard for us to know you know, what the current crop of companies or even the crop of companies eight or 10 years ago what their outcome will be. But my guess is it's going to be five Maybe six percent. It's just a much,…”
John Taylor Apr 23, 2015 ▶ 10:31 20 VC 030: VC Funds, Angels and IPOs with John Taylor, Head of Research @ NVCA
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Aging populations prevent pension funds from committing to VC lockups
“But with the pensions now seeing aging populations, they're generally not in a position to be doing the 10 to 12 to 14 year lockup, which a venture capital fund typically is. They can't commit to that level time frame of the liquidity.”
John Taylor Apr 23, 2015 ▶ 2:42 20 VC 030: VC Funds, Angels and IPOs with John Taylor, Head of Research @ NVCA
Assertion Partly supported
NVCA research finds venture capitalists max out capacity at six board seats
“We've done a study now, we did it back Right after the bubble, and we've revisited it once or twice with Dow Jones, looking to see what this, what a typical workload, a board level workload is of a venture capitalist, and the number comes back six, and it was …”
John Taylor Apr 23, 2015 ▶ 12:52 20 VC 030: VC Funds, Angels and IPOs with John Taylor, Head of Research @ NVCA
Assertion Supported
Active venture capital firm count dropped 30% between 2010 and 2015
“I think also you have to look at where venture is, and over the past four or five years, we, we've seen a reduction in the number of firms, a slight reduction in the amount of capital available, but A significant 30% reduction in the number of firms out there …”
John Taylor Apr 23, 2015 ▶ 17:10 20 VC 030: VC Funds, Angels and IPOs with John Taylor, Head of Research @ NVCA
Assertion Supported
Late-stage venture capital round sizes expanded by 40% to 50%
“And that is that the VCs themselves are coming to the table with roughly the same amount of money they have the past few years. But we're seeing the total amount invested, the total size of these rounds expanding by, you know, 40, 50%. The total amount of vent…”
John Taylor Apr 23, 2015 ▶ 18:23 20 VC 030: VC Funds, Angels and IPOs with John Taylor, Head of Research @ NVCA
Assertion Supported
Institutional LPs seek 300 to 500 basis points over public markets
“Lots of times you'll hear institutional investors saying that they want at least 300 to 500 basis points better than what they think they can do in the public market.”
John Taylor Apr 23, 2015 ▶ 3:54 20 VC 030: VC Funds, Angels and IPOs with John Taylor, Head of Research @ NVCA
Assertion Supported
Large institutional LPs cannot invest in small $20M to $40M funds
“A lot of the money's in the hands of very, very large institutions that can no longer put money into a 20 or 30 or forty million dollar venture fund. They just don't have, they just can't divide it up in that small a parcel.”
John Taylor Apr 23, 2015 ▶ 4:59 20 VC 030: VC Funds, Angels and IPOs with John Taylor, Head of Research @ NVCA
Assertion Supported
Biotech companies comprised the majority of venture IPOs from 2013 to 2015
“And you look at just in the past gosh, I mean, the past three years 2013, 20 14, 2015, and the interesting thing is that the majority of the IPOs in each of the That period where were biotech companies, which historically is only about 20% of the money, but ma…”
John Taylor Apr 23, 2015 ▶ 9:19 20 VC 030: VC Funds, Angels and IPOs with John Taylor, Head of Research @ NVCA
Assertion Supported
Fourteen percent of venture-backed startups in the 1990s went public
“If you go back to nine in the 19 nineties, And look at what percentage of the first fundings in the nineties ended up going public. It was 14%. So basically one in every seven companies that got a dime of venture financing went public.”
John Taylor Apr 23, 2015 ▶ 10:14 20 VC 030: VC Funds, Angels and IPOs with John Taylor, Head of Research @ NVCA

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
20 VC 030: VC Funds, Angels and IPOs with John Taylor, Head of Research @ NVCA Apr 23, 2015 18m
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