Jul 17, 2017 · 28m · 20vc
20VC: VC of The Year: Forerunner's Kirsten Green on 2 $Bn+ Exits in 1 Year, Why We Are In The Very Early Innings For Commerce & How Brand Has Fundamentally Changed Over The Last Decade
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of The 20 Minute VC, host Harry Stebbings interviews Kirsten Green, Founding General Partner at Forerunner Ventures, to explore her career transition into venture capital, portfolio construction strategies, evolving definitions of brand, and macro dynamics reshaping modern consumer commerce.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Harry holds 31.2% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Harry as informed peer 3.2 Guest teaching 3.2 Guest disagreement 1.0 Harry pushing back 2.0
speaking balance: gold is Harry, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 7:20 Polite rejection of host's premise
Kirsten offers her mildest disagreement by stating she does not know enough about SaaS to agree with Benchmark's Peter Fenton that consumer and SaaS investing require identical skill sets.
Hardest push from Harry ▶ 11:19 Challenging fund size and dilutionHarry brings up a direct question from David Pakman questioning whether Forerunner's fund size is too small to maintain meaningful ownership through dilution.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 16:15 Explaining four pillars of consumer moatsKirsten breaks down why price and exclusivity fail as venture moats compared to brand experience, walking through macro venture dynamics.
Harry holds his own ▶ 7:03 Citing Peter Fenton on SaaS vs ConsumerHarry demonstrates domain preparation by citing Peter Fenton's benchmark metrics around CAC and LTV to test Kirsten's consumer framework.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Harry as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Harry pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirsten Green's Journey to Venture Capital and Founding Forerunner | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | Harry cites LP questions from Michael Kim and quotes Peter Fenton regarding SaaS vs consumer metrics (CAC and LTV). Kirsten gently demurs on comparing consumer directly to SaaS metrics while detailing her fund's reserve and valuation strategies. The tone remains collaborative throughout. | |
| Defining Commerce Beyond E-Commerce and Opportunities in Infrastructure | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | Harry presses with a question from David Pakman asking if Forerunner's fund size is sufficient to maintain ownership amidst dilution in broader commerce sectors. Kirsten clarifies her firm's definition of commerce beyond e-commerce and explains how thematic focus guides their fund sizing. | |
| Key Traits of Successful Consumer Brand Founders | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | Harry brings up Reid Hoffman's quote about product launch embarrassment to test Kirsten's framework. Kirsten lays out four strategic pillars for consumer businesses, educating on why competing on price or exclusivity is ineffective for venture-scale return profiles. | |
| Brand as a Primary Competitive Moat | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Harry asks whether brand functions as a primary moat compared to tech IP and inquires about consolidation versus standalone $20B companies. Kirsten explains how brand has evolved into a multi-touchpoint personality asset and outlines macro opportunities. | |
| Quickfire Round with Kirsten Green | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Harry conducts a standard quickfire round covering books, contrarian beliefs, and recent investments. Kirsten presents a contrarian view that Amazon expands market opportunity for consumer startups rather than crushing them. |
Statements from this episode (14)
Forerunner is the only VC in Dollar Shave Club and Jet.com
“Forerunner Ventures is the only VC firm to invest in both Dollar Shave Club and Jet.com, two of the biggest and highest profile e-commerce exits in recent years”
Forerunner was founded on the thesis that retail faced total reimagination
“Really believing that we were on the brink of a complete re-imagination of the retail ecosystem”
Forerunner avoids pre-revenue investing when time horizons do not fit
“And sometimes it doesn't make sense in the context of our fund model and our goals as venture investors to invest pre-revenue because of that.”
VCs should allocate reserve capital based on traction and time horizons
“But I do think that we have learned over time that one of the important strategies of portfolio construction is Aiming for initial diversification across business models, across time horizons to scale, anticipated time horizons to scale, across what are your a…”
Overhauling backend infrastructure is the biggest challenge for large-scale retailers
“In fact, would argue that the need to overhaul infrastructure at the retailers at scale is one of their biggest challenges. And from a business perspective, it's a big opportunity to be part of servicing some element of that back end of their business.”
Forerunner avoids investing in commerce startups that compete primarily on price
“That's not one where as investors were particularly keen on, because I tend to feel like if you're saying, you know, we're the lowest price out there, if you're successful, you're going to build a competitive landscape where it ends up being a race to the bott…”
Competing on product exclusivity contradicts the core goals of venture capital
“And I think that flies in the face of a goal as a venture capitalist, which is to build big game changing businesses that matter to lots of people. Part of the thing inherent in that goal is making it accessible and opening up it to a broad audience.”
Strong initial unit economics mean nothing without repeat customer retention
“Even if you have economics that seem good on a first sale, if you don't have anybody coming back, it's never going to be a good business.”
Modern brand identity functions like a human personality, not static advertising
“Today I would argue that brand is, is closer to, this is going to be an aggressive comment, but it's a closer to what we think of as people, as personalities, because now companies really have a chance to have so many more touch points to a consumer or an oppo…”
Top new e-commerce platforms will expand by aggregating outside brands
“And I expect that the ones that have the strongest leadership and the strongest platforms and the most leverageable way of delighting the customer and delivering that experience will benefit from bringing other offerings onto their platform.”
The market overlooked Michael Dubin's serious vision behind Dollar Shave Club
“I think that the market got totally taken by the video, and I think they misread that as a amazing go-to-market gimmick, and they might have missed how amazingly serious Michael is as an entrepreneur and a leader and a businesswoman. Vision that was behind tha…”
Amazon creates more consumer commerce opportunity than it destroys
“Amazon does more to make the market opportunity that we're investing in than it does to crush it.”
FOMO in venture capital leads to the misguided capitalization of startups
“Maybe the fear of missing out as a driver in investment decision-making process, and that contributing to some misguided capitalization of companies.”
Package leveraging unboxing videos for the shopping experience is genius
“What I thought was genius about what the team at Package saw as an opportunity was to take video that is already embraced at wide scale across the internet in these unboxing videos, and to use that as the entertainment factor in creating a shopping experience.”