Jun 7, 2017 · 26m · 20vc
20VC: Why Cheque Size & Follow On Decision-Making Does Not Matter, Why Intelligence Is Overrated & Why You Should Do Everything You Can To Make Other People Successful with Anthony Pompliano, Founding Partner @ Full Tilt Capital
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In this episode of The 20 Minute VC, host Harry Stebbings speaks with Anthony Pompliano, General Partner at Full Tilt Capital, about founder-centric investing, evaluating emotional intelligence over IQ, data-driven portfolio construction, and hands-on operational value creation.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Harry holds 32.6% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Harry as informed peer 4.0 Guest teaching 4.3 Guest disagreement 2.9 Harry pushing back 3.7
speaking balance: gold is Harry, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 17:16 Rejecting LP Doubts on Portfolio Scaling
Pomp forcefully dismisses LP skepticism regarding scaling operational value across dozens of portfolio companies, stating bluntly that anyone who doubts their ability shouldn't invest in the fund.
Hardest push from Harry ▶ 8:40 Challenging High Deal Velocity as 'Spray and Pray'Stebbings directly confronts Pomp with industry criticism, questioning whether completing 39 deals in nine months is merely a reckless 'spray and pray' tactic.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 9:03 Reframing VC Returns and the J-CurvePomp educates the host using three decades of historical venture capital data to demonstrate that check size and follow-on strategy do not drive outsized returns, arguing Full Tilt's model successfully eliminates the traditional J-curve.
Harry holds his own ▶ 11:16 Citing Top VCs on Seed Stage MathStebbings demonstrates deep domain expertise by citing prominent VCs like Roger Ehrenberg and Michael Kim to challenge Pomp's reliance on mathematical models in seed-stage investing.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Harry as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Harry pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Pompliano's Background and Journey to Full Tilt Capital | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | Stebbings questions whether Pomp's 90-10 founder-to-idea ratio is actually distinct from the broader 'founder-friendly' VC trend. Pomp clarifies that traditional VCs focus on founder-friendly terms while still evaluating companies 50-50, whereas Full Tilt evaluates 90-10 based on founder resilience. | |
| Evaluating Founders: Seeking 'Gamers' and Wargaming Scenarios | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | Stebbings quotes directly from Pomp's report regarding stress-testing founders. Pomp explains their concept of searching for 'gamers' who want the ball at the end of the game and how they use hypothetical wargaming scenarios to evaluate decision-making frameworks. | |
| Balancing Vision and Persistence in Startup Building | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | Stebbings challenges Pomp's pace of 39 investments in nine months, directly asking how he responds to accusations of 'spray and pray'. Pomp counters with 30-35 years of VC return data to argue that early access is the sole metric correlating to returns, claiming Full Tilt has eliminated the J-curve. | |
| Math vs. Intuition in Seed Stage and Proprietary Deal Flow | 7 | 4 | 3 | 6 | Stebbings exhibits notable industry knowledge by citing Roger Ehrenberg, Michael Kim, Dave McClure, and an LP to challenge Pomp's mathematical model and dark deal flow claims. Pomp defends his approach by framing seed investing as probability math combined with internal incubation and serendipity. | |
| Picking Investments vs. Building Companies | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | Stebbings pushes on LP concerns regarding how Pomp can scale his personal time across 39 investments while maintaining operational support. Pomp responds bluntly that doubters shouldn't invest in his fund and highlights extreme examples of hands-on support like flying to Nigeria for customer research. | |
| The 90-Day Acceleration Framework and Operational Value-Add | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | Stebbings brings up Andreessen Horowitz's operational value-add model to compare frameworks. Pomp outlines Full Tilt's 90-day intensive post-investment sprint focused strictly on growth before handing off founders to follow-on investors. | |
| Quickfire Round: EQ over IQ, Reading Recommendations, and Advice | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | In the quickfire round, Pomp delivers contrarian takes, arguing that raw intelligence is overrated compared to EQ and warning founders that VCs who promise the most post-investment help usually deliver the least. |
Statements from this episode (13)
Pompliano: 'Founder-friendly' VCs still weigh ideas 50-50 against founders
“Most of the investors who talk about being founder-friendly, they're talking about the investment terms, the way they interact with founders et cetera, but they're still making decisions based on closer to a fifty-fifty on the company idea and the founders.”
Pompliano: Full Tilt Capital weights decisions 90% on founders, 10% on ideas
“From our perspective, we really focus more on ninety-ten, so 90% on the founders, 10% on the idea and market.”
Pompliano: Full Tilt Capital usually invests at $5M valuation or lower
“We're investing incredibly early. We're talking five million dollar valuation or lower usually.”
Pompliano: Demographic diversity is the best early-stage portfolio construction strategy
“If you can get the diversification of founders, you also get the diversification of thought, perspective, industries, experiences, et cetera. And we think that's the best way to or the best way for us to build an early stage portfolio today.”
Pompliano: Wargaming hypothetical scenarios is best for evaluating founder decision-making
“In our eyes, it's to try to recreate those situations as, you know, accurately as possible. And so, by hypothetically kind of wargaming that stuff, we get, you know, at least a glimpse as to how will they handle that stuff. And then also, we get a glimpse as t…”
Pompliano: Historical data shows check size and follow-on decisions don't drive returns
“The only thing that correlates to outsized returns across different economic boom and bust cycles is being early in the best deals, right? So check size doesn't matter. Follow-on decision-making doesn't matter.”
Pompliano: Early data shows Full Tilt Capital has eliminated the VC J-curve
“Our data shows that we've eliminated the J curve. So we've already had a company that was acquired that isn't public yet, and we've had no companies go out of business.”
Pompliano: Full Tilt invested in deals no other VCs know exist
“There's a number of deals that we've invested in, That I'm a hundred percent confident there's not another venture capitalist in the world that knows about it because we were there from day one and we know that the founders never talked to another venture capi…”
Pompliano: Proprietary deal flow is a misleading term driven by serendipity
“I don't think that proprietary deal flow is, I think it's a misleading term, right? I think that what ends up happening is their serendipity.”
Pompliano: Academic studies show VCs cannot accurately stack-rank their own portfolios
“There have been, you know, a ton of academic studies that have shown if you take an investor's portfolio and you sit them down and you say, can you please stack rank your portfolio in terms of who should have the best outcome and who should have the worst outc…”
Pompliano traveled to Nigeria at his own expense for portfolio customer research
“We've got a company that I went for a week to Nigeria with the founder to go do customer research, right, on my own dime.”
Pompliano: Pure intelligence is overrated compared to EQ in predicting success
“I believe that Intelligence is quite overrated, and EQ is quite underrated. I think that you can be very successful by having a high EQ, and if you have intelligence as well, then you kind of just double your probability for success, but I think that most peop…”