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Jan 16, 2017 · 26m · 20vc

20VC: Why We Will See A Big Series B Crunch? Why Proprietary Data Pools & AI Talent Will Be The New Limited Natural Resources? Why Now Is The Closest Thing To A New Normal with Tim Chang, Managing Director @ Mayfield Fund

Tim Chang · 15m spoken Harry Stebbings · 9m spoken
0:00 / 0:00

gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions

In this episode of The 20VC, host Harry Stebbings interviews Tim Chang, Managing Director at Mayfield Fund, discussing macro venture capital trends, artificial intelligence investments, market cycles, and personal biohacking strategies.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Harry holds 38.1% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

Harry as informed peer 1.6 Guest teaching 3.2 Guest disagreement 0.8 Harry pushing back 0.8
05100:0010:0020:002:29–6:05 · Harry as informed peer 1/10 Tim Chang's Unconventional Path into Venture Capital Harry asks standard biographical questions about Tim's entry into VC. Tim lightheartedly shares how he stumbled into the industry at Stanford and entered right before the 9/11 downturn, which shaped his early risk perspective.6:05–11:54 · Harry as informed peer 3/10 Market Dynamics, Series B Crunch, and Evaluation Benchmarks Harry quotes industry insights from Jason Lemkin to probe on Series B benchmarks and down rounds. Tim provides direct feedback on market dynamics, bluntly calling out Seed 2 and Seed 3 rounds as disguised bridge rounds.11:54–17:54 · Harry as informed peer 2/10 AI Talent, Proprietary Data Pools, and SaaS Business Models Harry asks structured questions regarding AI business models, pricing, and acqui-hire risks. Tim educates on how to spot superficial AI buzzwords versus legitimate talent recruited like NBA draft picks.17:54–21:18 · Harry as informed peer 1/10 Body Hacking Strategies and Nutritional Routines Tim breaks down his minimalist body hacking protocol, emphasizing keto and intermittent fasting. Harry humorously pushes back when Tim advises cutting out alcohol like mojitos.21:18–24:19 · Harry as informed peer 1/10 Quick Fire Round with Tim Chang In the quick fire round, Tim offers provocative takes on solving US healthcare by treating sugar as a scheduled narcotic and restricting food choices by BMI. Harry briefly acknowledges the point on healthcare costs before wrapping up.2:29–6:05 · Guest teaching 2/10 Tim Chang's Unconventional Path into Venture Capital Harry asks standard biographical questions about Tim's entry into VC. Tim lightheartedly shares how he stumbled into the industry at Stanford and entered right before the 9/11 downturn, which shaped his early risk perspective.6:05–11:54 · Guest teaching 4/10 Market Dynamics, Series B Crunch, and Evaluation Benchmarks Harry quotes industry insights from Jason Lemkin to probe on Series B benchmarks and down rounds. Tim provides direct feedback on market dynamics, bluntly calling out Seed 2 and Seed 3 rounds as disguised bridge rounds.11:54–17:54 · Guest teaching 4/10 AI Talent, Proprietary Data Pools, and SaaS Business Models Harry asks structured questions regarding AI business models, pricing, and acqui-hire risks. Tim educates on how to spot superficial AI buzzwords versus legitimate talent recruited like NBA draft picks.17:54–21:18 · Guest teaching 3/10 Body Hacking Strategies and Nutritional Routines Tim breaks down his minimalist body hacking protocol, emphasizing keto and intermittent fasting. Harry humorously pushes back when Tim advises cutting out alcohol like mojitos.21:18–24:19 · Guest teaching 3/10 Quick Fire Round with Tim Chang In the quick fire round, Tim offers provocative takes on solving US healthcare by treating sugar as a scheduled narcotic and restricting food choices by BMI. Harry briefly acknowledges the point on healthcare costs before wrapping up.2:29–6:05 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Tim Chang's Unconventional Path into Venture Capital Harry asks standard biographical questions about Tim's entry into VC. Tim lightheartedly shares how he stumbled into the industry at Stanford and entered right before the 9/11 downturn, which shaped his early risk perspective.6:05–11:54 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Market Dynamics, Series B Crunch, and Evaluation Benchmarks Harry quotes industry insights from Jason Lemkin to probe on Series B benchmarks and down rounds. Tim provides direct feedback on market dynamics, bluntly calling out Seed 2 and Seed 3 rounds as disguised bridge rounds.11:54–17:54 · Guest disagreement 1/10 AI Talent, Proprietary Data Pools, and SaaS Business Models Harry asks structured questions regarding AI business models, pricing, and acqui-hire risks. Tim educates on how to spot superficial AI buzzwords versus legitimate talent recruited like NBA draft picks.17:54–21:18 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Body Hacking Strategies and Nutritional Routines Tim breaks down his minimalist body hacking protocol, emphasizing keto and intermittent fasting. Harry humorously pushes back when Tim advises cutting out alcohol like mojitos.21:18–24:19 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Quick Fire Round with Tim Chang In the quick fire round, Tim offers provocative takes on solving US healthcare by treating sugar as a scheduled narcotic and restricting food choices by BMI. Harry briefly acknowledges the point on healthcare costs before wrapping up.2:29–6:05 · Harry pushing back 0/10 Tim Chang's Unconventional Path into Venture Capital Harry asks standard biographical questions about Tim's entry into VC. Tim lightheartedly shares how he stumbled into the industry at Stanford and entered right before the 9/11 downturn, which shaped his early risk perspective.6:05–11:54 · Harry pushing back 1/10 Market Dynamics, Series B Crunch, and Evaluation Benchmarks Harry quotes industry insights from Jason Lemkin to probe on Series B benchmarks and down rounds. Tim provides direct feedback on market dynamics, bluntly calling out Seed 2 and Seed 3 rounds as disguised bridge rounds.11:54–17:54 · Harry pushing back 1/10 AI Talent, Proprietary Data Pools, and SaaS Business Models Harry asks structured questions regarding AI business models, pricing, and acqui-hire risks. Tim educates on how to spot superficial AI buzzwords versus legitimate talent recruited like NBA draft picks.17:54–21:18 · Harry pushing back 1/10 Body Hacking Strategies and Nutritional Routines Tim breaks down his minimalist body hacking protocol, emphasizing keto and intermittent fasting. Harry humorously pushes back when Tim advises cutting out alcohol like mojitos.21:18–24:19 · Harry pushing back 1/10 Quick Fire Round with Tim Chang In the quick fire round, Tim offers provocative takes on solving US healthcare by treating sugar as a scheduled narcotic and restricting food choices by BMI. Harry briefly acknowledges the point on healthcare costs before wrapping up.

speaking balance: gold is Harry, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · Harry 92.8% · guest 7.2%0:00 · Harry 92.8% · guest 7.2%3:00 · Harry 13.3% · guest 86.7%3:00 · Harry 13.3% · guest 86.7%6:00 · Harry 26.3% · guest 73.7%6:00 · Harry 26.3% · guest 73.7%9:00 · Harry 19.4% · guest 80.6%9:00 · Harry 19.4% · guest 80.6%12:00 · Harry 28.3% · guest 71.7%12:00 · Harry 28.3% · guest 71.7%15:00 · Harry 25.3% · guest 74.7%15:00 · Harry 25.3% · guest 74.7%18:00 · Harry 28% · guest 72%18:00 · Harry 28% · guest 72%21:00 · Harry 32.8% · guest 67.2%21:00 · Harry 32.8% · guest 67.2%24:00 · Harry 92.5% · guest 7.5%24:00 · Harry 92.5% · guest 7.5%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 22:47 Radical healthcare framing on sugar and BMI

Tim takes an intentionally provocative, contrarian stance, suggesting sugar should be treated like crack and that people with high BMIs should have their food choices restricted.

 Hardest push from Harry ▶ 8:43 Challenging the premise of bridge rounds

Harry presses Tim on whether frequent bridge rounds indicate a failure to reach product-market fit rather than just a need for extra runway.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 12:16 Distinguishing real AI talent from hype

Tim breaks down how most AI pitches are just automation dressed up as buzzwords, explaining that true AI talent requires PhDs from top institutions who command NBA-draft level recruiting.

 Harry holds his own ▶ 10:59 Citing SaaS benchmarks for follow-on funding

Harry brings up Jason Lemkin's thesis that elite VCs must know exact round-to-round operational benchmarks to guide Tim into discussing concrete Series B metrics.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicHarry as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementHarry pushing backWhy
Tim Chang's Unconventional Path into Venture Capital 1200 Harry asks standard biographical questions about Tim's entry into VC. Tim lightheartedly shares how he stumbled into the industry at Stanford and entered right before the 9/11 downturn, which shaped his early risk perspective.
Market Dynamics, Series B Crunch, and Evaluation Benchmarks 3411 Harry quotes industry insights from Jason Lemkin to probe on Series B benchmarks and down rounds. Tim provides direct feedback on market dynamics, bluntly calling out Seed 2 and Seed 3 rounds as disguised bridge rounds.
AI Talent, Proprietary Data Pools, and SaaS Business Models 2411 Harry asks structured questions regarding AI business models, pricing, and acqui-hire risks. Tim educates on how to spot superficial AI buzzwords versus legitimate talent recruited like NBA draft picks.
Body Hacking Strategies and Nutritional Routines 1301 Tim breaks down his minimalist body hacking protocol, emphasizing keto and intermittent fasting. Harry humorously pushes back when Tim advises cutting out alcohol like mojitos.
Quick Fire Round with Tim Chang 1321 In the quick fire round, Tim offers provocative takes on solving US healthcare by treating sugar as a scheduled narcotic and restricting food choices by BMI. Harry briefly acknowledges the point on healthcare costs before wrapping up.

Statements from this episode (7)

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chang: Applying AI to existing industries will drive startups for a decade
“Whether it's AR, VR, my favorite AI machine learning, you know, the business plan of the next 10 years will be take machine learning AI, add it to existing industry X, disrupt the whole thing.”
Tim Chang Jan 16, 2017 ▶ 6:48
Disclosure
Chang: Mayfield partners review up to 800 deals to make 1-3 investments
“The normal pace for a fund like us, you know, mainstream early stage VC firm of three 50 to four hundred million, we're typically doing 10, 12 deals a year, right? So a mainline VC, we're probably seeing anywhere from 400 to 800 deals a year personally and doi…”
Tim Chang Jan 16, 2017 ▶ 7:49
Prediction Partly held up
Chang: Startups face an upcoming Series A and Series B funding crunch
“Let's call a spade a spade, and there is no real seed two or seed three. That's basically a bridge, right? That pretty much means you haven't found proper product market fit to extend over into a proper series A, so we will see a big series A crunch series B c…”
Tim Chang Jan 16, 2017 ▶ 8:46
Insight
Chang: Small $750K seed rounds leave startups undercapitalized for Series A
“So the undercapitalized seed or series A will be the new big risk for founders. It is easy to get that first seed round because there's so many seed funds around and it's easy to do a rolling close and do, you know, a safe note and get your seven 50 K in. But …”
Tim Chang Jan 16, 2017 ▶ 9:15
Insight
Chang: Proprietary data and AI talent are the new oil and gold
“Proprietary data pools and AI talent are the new natural limited resources. They are the new oil and gold, if you will.”
Tim Chang Jan 16, 2017 ▶ 13:28
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chang: Data-poor AI startups will be acqui-hired by major tech incumbents
“If startups can't train on massive proprietary data sets, then they'll never get that advantage on their algorithms. And then they're really targeted for, you know, acqui-hire by Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google, et cetera.”
Tim Chang Jan 16, 2017 ▶ 13:55
Disclosure
Chang: Mayfield invested in Next Entertainment to export China's live-streaming model
“So this is a company called Next Entertainment. They are taking the China live streaming phenomena and trying to see if that playbook will apply to the rest of the world. A rare case of instead of China doing copy-paste ventures on a successful US model may be…”
Tim Chang Jan 16, 2017 ▶ 23:51
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